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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--November 23

Nov 25, 2011

Wednesday Evening, November 23-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed down $0.60 at
$122.70 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for cattle today, as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and
U.S. stock index prices were lower. Trading has turned
choppy in the cattle market. The bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $124.00. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s
low of $120.20. First resistance is seen at $123.00 and
then at today’s high of $123.70. First support is seen at
today’s low of $122.00 and then at $121.50. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

March feeder cattle closed down $0.62 at $148.20 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close
prices above technical resistance at the contract high of
$150.87. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $146.15. First resistance is seen at $149.15 and
then at $150.00. First support is seen at $148.00 and then
at $147.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

February lean hogs closed up $0.50 at $91.60 today. Prices
closed the session high and hit another fresh four-week
high today. Bulls have good upside technical momentum to
suggest a challenge of the contract high of $93.80, scored
in October. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $92.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $89.00. First resistance is seen at
$92.00 and then at $92.50. First support is seen at $91.00
and then at this week’s low of $90.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed down 10 1/2 cents at
$5.95 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and
hit a fresh seven-week low today. The key “outside markets”
were bearish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices
were lower. Serious near-term chart damage has been
inflicted recently, including more today when corn closed
below what was psychological support at $6.00. Corn market
bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.25. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the October low of $5.86. First resistance for March corn
is seen at $6.00 and then at today’s high of $6.08. First
support is seen at today’s low of $5.91 and then at $5.86.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

January soybeans closed down 30 cents at $11.23 a bushel
today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a
fresh 14-month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish
for soybeans today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply
higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were
lower. Soybean bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend
on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $11.75 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at $11.35 and
then at $11.41. First support is seen at today’s low of
$11.21 and then at $11.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March soybean meal closed down $8.70 at $287.10 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another
fresh 23-month low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $275.00. First
resistance comes in at $290.00 and then at $292.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $286.50 and then at
$285.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

March bean oil closed down 145 points at 49.98 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
six-week low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
bean oil today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply
higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were
lower. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 51.60 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of 49.48 cents. First
resistance is seen at 50.50 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 49.81 cents and
then at 49.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 9 cents at $5.94 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
16-month low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
wheat today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher,
while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were lower.
Wheat bears have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $6.25 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $5.75.
First resistance is seen at $6.00 and then at today’s high
of $6.06 1/2. First support lies at today’s low of $5.88
and then at $5.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 3 cents at $6.67 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and did hit
another fresh 16-month low. Bears have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
psychological resistance at $7.00. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $6.50. First resistance is seen
at this week’s high of $6.81 and then at $6.90. First
support is seen at today’s low of $6.57 and then at $6.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

March oats closed down 7 1/2 cents at $2.87 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low and hit another fresh
contract low. Bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below technical
support at $2.75. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above psychological
resistance at $3.00. First support lies at today’s contract
low of $2.84 3/4 and then at $2.80. First resistance is
seen at $2.90 and then at today’s high of $2.93 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 29 points at 23.15 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit
another fresh 5.5-month low. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for sugar today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices
were lower. Sugar bears have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. A six-week-old downtrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 24.32 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 22.50
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 23.52
cents and then at 24.00 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 23.01 cents and then at 22.75 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0

March coffee closed down 190 points at 235.00 cents. Prices
closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for coffee today, as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were lower. Coffee bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next
upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 243.30 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 230.00
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 237.50 cents and
then at today’s high of 240.50 cents. First support is seen
at this week’s low of 234.60 cents and then at 232.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March cocoa closed down $5 at $2,416 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for cocoa today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices
were lower. The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,550. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,350.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,439 and then
at this week’s high of $2,466. First support is seen at the
contract low of $2,395 and then at $2,375. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.

March cotton closed down 47 points at 90.65 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for cattle today, as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and
U.S. stock index prices were lower. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in cotton recently. Cotton bears
have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 95.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
85.00 cents. First support is seen at 90.00 cents and then
at this week’s low of 89.33 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 91.91 cents and then at this week’s high
of 93.71 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

January orange juice closed down 295 points at $1.7685
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit-
taking pressure. FCOJ bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of $1.8420. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.7000. First resistance
is seen at $1.7920 and then at $1.8000. First support is
seen at today’s low of $1.7480 and then at $1.7300.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

January lumber futures closed down $5.30 at $236.30 today.
Prices closed near the session low. Bulls have faded this
week and the bears have regained the near-term technical
advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $230.00. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $254.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$237.50 and then at $240.00. First support is seen at
$235.00 and then at $232.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $5.00 an ounce
at $1,697.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today, and well up from the daily low, and saw some bargain
hunting and short covering late in the session. However,
the key “outside markets” were bearish for gold today and
kept prices below unchanged. The U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher while crude oil and the rest of the
commodity sector was lower. Near-term technical damage has
been inflicted recently. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside
technical breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at $1,754.00. Bears' next near-
term downside price objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at $1,604.70. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1,710.80 and then at this week’s high of
1,727.40. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,677.10
and then at this week’s low of $1,667.10. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

December silver futures closed down $0.946 an ounce at
$31.99 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for silver today, as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil was
lower. Near-term technical damage has been inflicted in
silver recently. The bears have the slight near-term
technical advantage. Bulls next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $34.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
major psychological support at $30.00. First resistance is
seen at $32.50 and then at this week’s high of $33.04. Next
support is seen at today’s low of $31.22 and then at
$31.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 500 points 328.30 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
four-week low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher 
while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were lower.
Copper bears have the near-term technical advantage. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below major psychological support
at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 330.00 cents
and then at today’s high of 336.70 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 323.40 cents and then at 320.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed down $1.66 a barrel
at $96.34 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
were pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index and lower
U.S. stock indexes. Recent price action in crude hints a
near-term market top is in place. Crude bulls do still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $103.37 a barrel. The next near-term
downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
$94.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $97.87
and then at $99.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$95.35 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January heating oil closed down 703 points at $2.9765
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
closed at a fresh six-week low close. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.1200. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $2.900. First resistance lies at
$3.0000 and then at today’s high of $3.0406. First support
is seen at today’s low of $2.9673 and then at $2.9500.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 451 points at
$2.5199 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears
have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$2.6359. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the October low of
$2.3803. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$2.5511 and then at this week’s high of $2.5681. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.4995 and then at this
week’s low of $2.4613. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

January natural gas closed up 5.4 cents at $3.615 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Short
covering in a bear market was featured today. Bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.75.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.40.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.625 and then
at $3.7000. First support is seen at $3.55 and then at
$3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed down 176 points at 1.3346 today. Prices closed near
the session low and hit a fresh seven-week low today. Bears
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage and
gained fresh downside momentum today. Prices are in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of 1.3576. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
the October low of 1.3161. First resistance for the Euro
lies at 1.3400 and then at 1.3450. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.3343 and then at 1.3300. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

The March Japanese yen closed down 62 points at 1.2970
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at the November high
of 1.3101. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 1.2900.
First resistance is seen at 1.3000 and then at today’s high
of 1.3028. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2952
and then at 1.2916. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The March Swiss franc closed down 71 points at 1.0887
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.1300. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of 1.0805.
First resistance is seen at 1.0966 and then at 1.1000.
First support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0869 and then
at 1.0800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

The March Australian dollar closed down 154 points at .9561
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
seven-week low today. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at this week’s high of .9856. The next downside
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at .9500. First resistance is
seen at .9600 and then at .9700. Next support is seen at
today’s low of .9561 and then at .9500. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

The March Canadian dollar closed down 95 pointws at .9525
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
seven-week low today. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage and gained more downside momentum
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at this week’s
high of .9700. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of .9359. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of .9600 and then at .9642. First
support is seen at today’s low of .9505 and then at .9475.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

The March British pound closed down 111 points at 1.5495
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh seven-week low. Bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of 1.5738. Bears'
next downside technical breakout objective is closing
prices below solid support at the October low of 1.5267.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5592 and then
at 1.5647. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5480
and then at 1.5400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed up 91 points at 79.73
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh seven-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at 80.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 78.37.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 79.80 and then at
80.00. First support is seen at 79.50 and then at 79.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 8/32 at 145 5/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit another
fresh seven-week high. Bond market bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and gained some more
upside momentum today. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 142 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the September contract
high of 146 15/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of 145 8/32 and then at 146 even. First support is seen at
144 16/32 and then at 144 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
8.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed up 13.0 (32nds) at 130.17.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh seven-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage and gained more power today. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at the October high
of 130.22.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at 129.16.0. First resistance is seen at the
October high of 130.22.0 and then at 131.00.0. First
support is seen at 130.08.5 and then at 130.00.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower again today and hit fresh seven-week lows. The EU
debt crisis has escalated and that has spooked the entire
market place. “When in doubt, get out” is the  mantra of
most traders this week. The EU crisis is far from resolved
and it could continue to negatively impact the U.S. stock
indexes in the near term. The stock index bulls have faded
recently and have lost their upside momentum and their
near-term technical advantage.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 53.25 at
2,161.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and
hit a fresh seven-week low today. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 2,300.00. The bears' next downside price breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 2,100.00. First resistance is seen at 2,175.00 and then
at 2,200.00. First support is seen at 2,150.00 and then at
2,125.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 22.90 at 1,159.90.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
seven-week low. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,250.00. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at 1,150.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,185.00 and then at
this week’s high of 1,209.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1,159.00 and then at 1,150.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5.

The Dow futures closed down 213 points at 11,234 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh
seven-week low. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above psychological resistance at
12,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 11,000.
First resistance in the Dow lies at 11,300 and then at
today’s high of 11,375. First support is seen at 11,200 and
then at 11,150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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