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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--November 30

Dec 01, 2011

Wednesday Evening, November 30-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

GENERAL COMMENT: The move by the U.S. Federal Reserve, the
European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and other central
banks of the world Wednesday to provide additional
liquidity to the world financial markets served notice that
they are in unison on making sure the European Union debt
crisis does not spread into a worldwide financial
contagion. Earlier Wednesday China also announced it is
dropping its reserve requirement ratio for banks by 0.5%.
That in effect eases monetary policy and is an overt signal
from China that it wants its economy to grow and it will
accept more commodity imports to achieve its better
economic growth. The coordinated central bank move and the
China move Wednesday are very significantly bullish for
commodity markets going forward, due to the inflationary
implications and also due to the fact the coordinated
central banks move weakened the U.S. dollar index.--Jim

*. LIVESTOCK: February live cattle closed up $1.15 at
$123.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh two-week high. The key “outside markets” were again
bullish for cattle today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were
solidly higher. The cattle market bulls did gain some fresh
upside technical momentum today as a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. The
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $125.00.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $122.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $123.95 and then at $124.50. First support is seen
at today’s low of $123.35 and then at $122.85. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

March feeder cattle closed up $0.92 at $148.17 today. Bulls
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above technical resistance at
the contract high of $150.87. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $146.15. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $148.80 and then at
$149.15. First support is seen at today’s low of $147.65
and then at this week’s low of $146.97. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.5

February lean hogs closed up $0.37 at $91.57 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today but did hit a fresh
five-week high early on. The key “outside markets” were
bullish for hogs again today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were
solidly higher. Hog bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above
solid chart resistance at $92.50. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below
solid technical support at $89.00. First resistance is seen
at $92.00 and then at today’s high of $92.35. First support
is seen at today’s low of $91.30 and then at $91.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. GRAINS: March corn futures closed up 2 1/2 cents at
$6.08 today. Prices closed near mid-range and saw more
short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets”
were again bullish for corn today, as the U.S. dollar index
was lower, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were
solidly higher. While serious near-term chart damage has
been inflicted in corn recently, my bias is that a near-
term low is in place and that a big double-bottom reversal
pattern is forming on the daily bar chart. See my
commentary on oats below. Corn market bears do still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.25. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
October low of $5.86. First resistance for March corn is
seen at today’s high of $6.16 and then at $6.20. First
support is seen at $6.00 and then at today’s low of $5.95.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

January soybeans closed up 6 1/4 cents at $11.31 1/4 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and
saw more short covering in a bear market. My bias is also
that soybeans are near a major low. See my commentary on
oats below. The key “outside markets” were bullish for
soybeans today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while
crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. Soybean
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a six-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart. The next near-term upside technical
breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $11.75 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $11.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $11.46 and then at $11.50. First support is seen at
today’s low of $11.11 1/2 and then at $11.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.

March soybean meal closed up $4.20 at $294.70 today. Prices
closed near the session high today and scored a bullish
“outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Short covering was
featured. Meal bears still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $300.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $275.00. First
resistance comes in at today’s high of $295.00 and then at
$297.50. First support is seen at $292.50 and then at
$290.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March bean oil closed up 7 points at 49.93 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short
covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were
again bullish for bean oil today, as the U.S. dollar index
was lower, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were
higher. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 51.60 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 47.50 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 50.67 cents and then at 51.00 cents.
First support is seen at 49.50 cents and then at today’s
low of 49.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

March Chicago SRW wheat closed down 2 cents at $6.14 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bullish for wheat today, as the U.S.
dollar index was lower, while crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were higher, but the wheat bulls could still
get no traction and that’s another bearish clue. Wheat
bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at $6.25 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $5.86. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$6.29 1/4 and then at $6.35. First support lies at today’s
low of $6.07 and then at $6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
2.0.

March K.C. HRW wheat closed down 9 cents at $6.61 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $6.81. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$6.25. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.78
and then at $6.81. First support is seen at $6.55 1/4 and
then at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5

March oats closed up 12 1/2 cents at $3.30 today. Prices
closed near the session high, hit a fresh two-week high and
saw more short covering. History shows the oats market can
be an early leader of bigger trending price moves in the
grains. Oats bears do still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but the bulls have some upside
technical momentum on their side to suggest a market low is
in place. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below psychological support at
$3.00. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $3.25. First support lies at $3.15 and then at $3.10.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.20 and then
at $3.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 22 points at 23.71 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more short covering in a bear market. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for sugar again today, as the U.S.
dollar index was lower, while crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were higher. Sugar bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. A six-week-old
downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Sugar
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 24.32 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 22.50 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 23.95 cents and then at 24.32 cents.
First support is seen at 23.50 cents and then at today’s
low of 23.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

March coffee closed up 895 points at 236.50 cents. Prices
closed near the session high today on short covering.
Prices also hit a fresh three-week low today before
reversing course and scoring a bullish “outside day” up on
the daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for coffee again today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower,
while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher.
Coffee still bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the
November high of 243.30 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the October low of 223.15 cents
a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 237.55
cents and then at 240.00 cents. First support is seen at
235.00 cents and then at 232.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

March cocoa closed down $10 at $2,310 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today and hit another fresh contract low.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for cocoa again
today, as the U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil
and U.S. stock index prices were higher. Yet, the cocoa
market sold off again, which shows just how bearish the
cocoa market is at present. The cocoa bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $2,429. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $2,250. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $2,358 and then at $2,375. First support
is seen at $2,287 and then at today’s contract low of
$2,259. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

March cotton closed down 184 points at 90.91 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bullish for cotton again today, as the U.S.
dollar index was lower, while crude oil and U.S. stock
index prices were higher, yet cotton sold off anyway, which
is another bearish clue. Serious near-term chart damage has
been inflicted in cotton recently. Cotton bears have the
solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 95.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 85.00
cents. First support is seen at 90.00 cents and then at
this week’s low of 88.50 cents. First resistance is seen at
92.00 cents and then at 93.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

January orange juice closed down 5 points at $1.7640 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw mild
profit taking. FCOJ bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
contract high of $1.8420. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.7000. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1.7815 and then at $1.7920.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1.7560 and then at
$1.7480. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

January lumber futures closed down $4.80 at $218.20 today.
Prices closed near the session low again today and slumped
to a fresh contract low. The bears have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $210.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$230.00. First resistance is seen at $220.00 and then at
today’s high of $222.00 and then at $225.00. First support
is seen at today’s contract low of $218.20 and then at
$215.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0

*. METALS: February gold futures closed up $30.90 an ounce
at $1,749.80 today. Prices closed near the session high
today and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily
bar chart. Bulls gained upside technical momentum today.
A lower U.S. dollar index was supportive for gold today.
Bulls have regained the near-term technical advantage and a
nine-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been re-
established. Bulls' next upside technical breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $1,775.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below psychological
support at $1,700.00. First resistance is seen at $1,755.50
and then at $1,775.00. First support is seen at $1,725.00
and then at today’s low of $1,704.30. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

March silver futures closed up $0.975 an ounce at $32.925
today. Prices closed near the session high and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. The
key “outside markets” were bullish for silver today, as the
U.S. dollar index was lower, while crude oil was higher.
Bulls gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum
today. Bulls next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $33.12 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the November low of $30.74.
First resistance is seen at $33.12 and then at $33.50. Next
support is seen at $32.50 and then at $32.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

March N.Y. copper closed up 1,800 points 357.10 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart. Short covering and bargain hunting were featured.
Bulls gained upside near-term technical momentum today to
suggest a market low is in place. The key “outside markets”
were bullish for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was
lower, while crude oil and the U.S. stock indexes were
solidly higher. Copper bulls' next upside breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of 376.80 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 321.85 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 363.50 cents and then at the November high of
367.45 cents. First support is seen at 350.00 cents and
then at 345.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

*. ENERGIES: January crude oil closed up $0.82 a barrel at
$100.61 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were
supported by the weaker U.S. dollar index and rallying U.S.
and European stock markets. Crude bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage and have this week
regained upside momentum. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at the November high
of $103.37 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$94.99. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $101.75
and then at $102.50. First support is seen at $100.00 and
then at today’s low of $98.92. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

January heating oil closed down 42 points at $3.0294 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.1200. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $2.9288. First
resistance lies at $3.0500 and then at today’s high of
$3.0685. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0001
and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

January (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 237 points at
$2.5635 today. Prices closed near mid-range today but did
hit a fresh two-week high early on. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $2.6359. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid support at the October low of $2.3803. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.6024 and then at
$2.6359. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.5250
and then at $2.5000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

January natural gas closed down 6.4 cents at $3.569 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears still
have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at this
week’s high of $3.72. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $3.40. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $3.639 and then at $3.72. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $3.521 and then at the contract
low of $3.461. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The March Euro currency
closed up 102 points at 1.3456 today. Prices closed nearer
the session high today and scored a bullish “outside day”
up on the daily bar chart. Bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a four-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 1.3576. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at
the October low of 1.3161. First resistance for the Euro
lies at 1.3500 and then at today’s high of 1.3548. Next
support is seen at 1.3400 and then at 1.3350. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0

The March Japanese yen closed up 57 points at 1.2928 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.3000. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at 1.2700. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
1.2963 and then at 1.3000. First support is seen at 1.2900
and then at today’s low of 1.2831. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

The March Swiss franc closed up 80 points at 1.0983 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1200. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 1.0738. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1058 and then at
1.1100. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0849 and
then at last week’s low of 1.0738 and then at 1.0700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5.

The March Australian dollar closed up 260 points at 1.0165
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a
fresh three-wee high and saw heavy short covering. Bulls
regained upside technical momentum today and are now on a
level near-term technical playing field with the bears. A
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated
today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9850.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0205 and then
at 1.0250. Next support is seen at 1.0100 and then at
1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The March Canadian dollar closed up 96 points at .9780
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh two-week high on more short covering. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but the
bulls did gain some upside momentum today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at .9925. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of .9485. First
resistance is seen at .9800 and then at today’s high of
.9851. First support is seen at .9750 and then at .9700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

The March British pound closed up 76 points at 1.5665
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.5900. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at last week’s low of 1.5415. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.5758 and then at 1.5800. First
support is seen at 1.5600 and then at today’s low of
1.5515. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The March U.S. dollar index closed down 63 points at 78.90
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw more
profit-taking pressure. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage but did fade today and need to
show fresh power soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 80.58. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at 77.50. Next
resistance lies at 79.50 and then at today’s high of 79.87.
First support is seen at today’s low of 78.25 and then at
78.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T-Bonds closed down 1 28/32 at 141 8/32 today.
Prices closed near the session low today, hit a fresh two-
week low and saw more profit-taking pressure amid the “risk
on” trading day today. Bond market bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading and
need to show fresh power soon. The next downside price
breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at 140 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 145
8/32. First resistance is seen at 142 even and then at 143
even. First support is seen at today’s low of 140 31/32 and
then at 140 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

March U.S. T Notes closed down 17.0 (32nds) at 129.06.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today, hit a
fresh two-week low and saw more profit taking. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage but are
fading and need to show fresh power soon. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the November high of 130.20.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
128.00.0. First resistance is seen at 129.16.0 and then at
130.00.0. First support is seen at today’s low of 128.28.0
and then at 128.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.6

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
sharply higher today on the move by the world central banks
to inject liquidity into the world financial system. The
stock index bulls were awaiting the seasonal “Santa Claus”
rally in the U.S. stock market, and it may have gotten
under way today.


The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 82.50 at 2,295.00
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh two-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
October high of 2,408.75. The bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 2,135.75. First resistance is
seen at 2,300.00 and then at 2,325.00. First support is
seen at 2,250.00 and then at 2,225.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 49.50 at 1,246.00.
Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at the October
high of 1,288.70. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at last week’s low of 1,147.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,246.50 and then at 1,270.50.
First support is seen at 1,230.00 and then at 1,206.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The Dow futures closed up 469 points at 12,034 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh two-
week high today. The next upside price objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the October high of 12,230. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 11,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at today’s high of 12,035 and then at 12,100. First
support is seen at 12,000 and then at 11,950. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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