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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Oct. 22

Oct 23, 2012

Monday Evening, October 22-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed steady at $127.27
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Traders
ignored a bullish USDA report on Friday. However, the
report was mainly bullish for prices in 2013. The key
“outside markets were also mildly bearish for cattle today,
as the U.S. dollar index was slightly higher and crude oil
prices were lower. Bulls and bears are now back on a level
near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at $129.50. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $125.45. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$127.95 and then at last week’s high of $128.32. First
support is seen at $127.00 and then at $126.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

January feeder cattle closed down $0.95 at $149.27 today.
Profit taking was featured today after prices rallied
sharply last week. Higher grain prices recently have also
limited buying interest in feeders. Feeder bulls still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
the September high of $151.40. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
$146.12. First resistance is seen at $150.00 and then at
$150.50. First support is seen at $149.00 and then at
$148.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December lean hogs closed down $0.95 at $78.67 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw profit
taking after prices hit a 2.5-month high on Friday. The key
“outside markets” were modestly bearish for hogs today as
the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Hog market bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $80.75. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $76.55. First
resistance is seen at $79.00 and then at last Friday’s high
of $79.77. First support is seen at $78.50 and then at last
week’s low of $78.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 1 cent at 7.62 1/2
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The key
“outside markets” were modestly bearish for corn today as
the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Corn prices are moving above key chart support at
$7.32 1/4, to keep a three-week-old uptrend on the daily
chart alive. A close below that level would open up
downside potential to the $7.00 area. Corn bulls' next
upside price objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $7.76.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$7.32 1/4. First resistance for December corn is seen at
last week’s high of $7.69 and then at $7.76. First support
is seen at today’s low of $7.58 1/4 and then at $7.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

November soybeans were up 12 cents at $15.46 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and saw more
short covering and bargain hunting. The key “outside
markets” were modestly bearish for beans today as the U.S.
dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were lower.
That did limit the upside in beans. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. However, bulls
have more work to do to suggest an uptrend can be
sustained. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above solid technical resistance at $15.74
a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of $14.85 3/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.58 1/2 and then
at $15.74. First support is seen at today’s low of $15.26
1/2 and then at $15.07 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal was up $7.30 at $471.10 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. More
short covering and bargain hunting were featured. Meal
bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical
playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $479.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $450.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $472.20 and then at $475.00. First
support is seen at $467.50 and then at $465.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December bean oil was up 6 points at 51.64 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range today. Bean oil
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at 53.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at last week’s
high of 52.47 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 51.24 cents and then at 51.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 4 1/2 cents at $8.77 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The key
“outside markets” were modestly bearish for wheat today as
the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Wheat bulls do have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout objective is
to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
October low of $8.40 1/4. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $8.85 1/2 and then at $8.94. First support
lies at $8.66 and then at $8.55 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 4 3/4 cents at $9.12 3/4 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The HRW
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage and
are gaining upside momentum. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $9.29
3/4. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $8.72 1/2. First resistance is seen at
last week’s high of $9.19 3/4 and then at $9.25. First
support is seen at $9.00 and then at $8.92 1/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

December oats were down 1 3/4 cent at $3.96 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range. Oats bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.75. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of $4.14.
First support lies at today’s low of $3.93 3/4 and then at
$3.90. First resistance is seen at $4.00 and then at last
week’s high of $4.04 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 24 points at 19.99 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were modestly bearish for sugar today as
the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
lower. Sugar bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at 21.00 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at the September low of 19.48 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 20.50 cents and then
at 20.75 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
19.93 cents and then at last week’s low of 19.67 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December coffee closed up 220 points at 163.85 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw short covering in a
bear market. Coffee bears still have the solid near-term
technical advantage. However, it’s around present price
levels that recent downtrends have been halted. The next
upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at 170.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 156.55 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 165.70 cents and then at 168.00 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 161.40 cents and
then at 160.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December cocoa closed up $11 at $2,500 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high and hit a fresh three-week high
today. Bulls have regained the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,595. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
October low of $2,338. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $2,526 and then at $2,550. First support is seen at
$2,475 and then at today’s low of $2,460. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

December cotton closed up 5 points at 76.93 cents today in
quieter trading. The key “outside markets” were modestly
bearish for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index was
firmer and crude oil prices were lower. The recent pause in
the cotton market, following the big gains last week, is
not bearish. Bulls still have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at 80.00 cents. The next downside price breakout
objective for the cotton bears is to push and close prices
below solid technical support at 72.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 77.63 cents and then
at 78.00 cents. First support is seen at 76.00 cents and
then at 75.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

November orange juice closed down 110 points at $1.1190
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
the October high of $1.1995. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the October low of
$1.0870. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1.1320 and then at $1.1500. First support is seen at last
week’s low of $1.1055 and then at the October low of
$1.0870. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

November lumber futures closed down $1.00 at $297.20 today,
on profit taking. Prices Friday hit a two-month high. Bulls
still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $288.00. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the August high of $308.00.
First resistance is seen at $300.00 and then at $303.00.
First support is seen at $295.00 and then at $292.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $2.40 an ounce
at $1,726.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
and hit a fresh six-week low early on today. Short covering
and bargain hunting were featured following last Friday’s
sharp sell off that did produce a bearish weekly low close.
The key “outside markets” were modestly bullish for the
gold market today as the U.S. dollar index was firmer and
crude oil prices were weaker. The gold bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage but have faded badly
need to show more power soon. The gold bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $1,755.50.
Bears' next near-term downside breakout price objective is
closing prices below psychological support at $1,700.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,730.30 and
then at $1,740.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,714.40 and then at $1,710.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
6.0

December silver futures closed up $0.138 an ounce at
$32.235 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh six-week low early on. Short covering and
bargain hunting were featured following last Friday’s sharp
sell off that produced a bearish weekly low close. The key
“outside markets” were modestly bullish for silver today as
the U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
weaker. The silver bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage but have faded badly need to
show more power soon. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $33.50 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $31.00. First resistance is seen
at $32.50 and then at Friday’s high of $32.915. Next
support is seen at $32.00 and then at today’s low of
$31.71. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 280 points at 360.95 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
six-week low today. The key “outside markets” were in a
bearish posture for copper today as the U.S. dollar index
was firmer and crude oil prices were lower. Copper bulls
have faded badly recently. Bulls and bears are now back on
a level near-term technical playing field. Copper bulls'
next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 376.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 365.25 cents and then at 367.50 cents.
First support is seen at 360.00 cents and then at 356.25
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed down $1.59 a barrel
at $88.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. A firmer U.S. dollar index helped to pressure crude
today, as did reports the U.S. and Iran may start talks on
Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Crude oil bears have gained some
fresh downside technical momentum after prices Friday
closed at a bearish weekly low close. Bears have the slight
near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is
producing a close above solid technical resistance at
$92.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout
objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the October low of $88.09.
First resistance is seen at $90.00 and then at today’s high
of $91.27. First support is seen at $88.09 and then at
$87.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December heating oil closed down 516 points at $3.0666
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
two-week low. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but are fading. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of $3.2102. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the September low of
$3.0181. First resistance lies at $3.1000 and then at
today’s high of $3.1327. First support is seen at $3.0500
and then at the October low of $3.0384. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 372 points at
$2.6349 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh 11-week low. Bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading
badly. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$2.7500. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at $2.5000. First
resistance is seen at $2.6500 and then at today’s high of
$2.6931. First support is seen at $2.6000 and then at
$2.5750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December natural gas closed down 18.3 cents at $3.764
today. Prices closed near the session low today on profit
taking after prices Friday hit a fresh 10-month high. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a six-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.60. First resistance is seen at $3.80 and then at $3.85.
First support is seen at last week’s low of $3.727 and then
at $3.631. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 28 points at 1.3058 today. Prices closed
near mid-range today. The Euro bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-
old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
1.3183. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at last
week’s low of 1.2898. First resistance for the Euro lies at
1.3100 and then at last week’s high of 1.3147. Next support
is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.2950. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

The December Japanese yen closed down 97 points at 1.2520
today. Prices closed near the session low and hit a fresh
3.5-month low today. Bulls have faded badly and bears have
the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at 1.2700. Bears' next downside breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at the June
low of 1.2438. First resistance is seen at 1.2550 and then
at 1.2600. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2515
and then at 1.2500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The December Swiss franc closed up 11 points at 1.0791
today. Prices closed near mid-range. The Swissy bulls have
the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 1.1000. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at the October low of 1.0609.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0821 and then
at last week’s high of 1.0861. First support is seen at
1.0750 and then at 1.0723. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 18 points at
1.0265 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
1.0400. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at last
week’s low of 1.0150. First resistance is seen at 1.0300
and then at last week’s high of 1.0363. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0250 and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0

The December Canadian dollar closed up 4 points at 1.0056
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did
hit a fresh nine-week low early on. Bulls have faded as a
five-week-old downtrend is now in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls and  bears are now on an overall level near-
term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is producing a close above chart
resistance at 1.0200. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at
1.0100 and then at 1.0144. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0023 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

The December British pound closed down 4 points at 1.6005
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on mild
profit taking. The bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh power
soon to keep it. The next upside price breakout objective
for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 1.6213. Bears' next
downside technical breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at 1.5900. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.6048 and then at 1.6100. First support is
seen at the October low of 1.5972 and then at 1.5900.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 2 points at 79.70
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw tepid
short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of 80.31.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 78.72. Next resistance lies at 79.81 and
then at last week’s high of 80.04. First support is seen at
79.37 and then at last week’s low of 78.97. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 21/32 at 146 29/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have
the near-term technical advantage as it appears the market
place is taking a more “risk on” mentality amid some
generally improving U.S. economic data released lately. The
next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
August low of 145 23/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 149 even. First resistance is seen
at 147 even and then at today’s high of 147 23/32. First
support is seen at today’s low of 146 22/32 and then at
last week’s low of 146 5/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 12.0 (32nds) at 132.00.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
have faded badly recently and bears have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 133.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 131.23.0. First
resistance is seen 132.08.0 and then at today’s high of
132.13.5. First support is seen at last week’s low of
131.29.0 and then at 131.23.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed today. The stock index bulls maintain the overall
near-term technical advantage, but did fade on Friday. The
market place is awaiting the latest meeting of the U.S.
Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee, which
begins Tuesday and ends Wednesday. In overnight news,
European stock markets were firmer along with the Euro
currency amid Spanish elections that showed the ruling
conservative party doing well. Such bolstered notions Spain
will be seeking EU financial assistance in the near term.
There was some disappointing economic news from Japan that
suggests the Bank of Japan will implement fresh monetary
stimulus measures soon. Otherwise, it was a quiet start to
the new trading week in Asia and Europe. Tensions in the
Middle East are ratcheting a bit higher following fresh
violence in Lebanon.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 28.50 at 2,692.50.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw some
short covering and bargain hunting from Friday’s losses.
Prices did hit a fresh 11-week low early on today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at last week’s high of 2,778.75. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the August low of
2,600.00. First resistance is seen at 2,700.00 and then at
2,725.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,757.50
and then at 2,750.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 6.20 at 1,430.20.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the September high of 1,467.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at the September low of
1,394.80. First resistance is seen at 1,440.00 and then at
Friday’s high of 1,453.20. First support is seen at the
October low of 1,416.30 and then at 1,400.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

The Dow futures closed up 23 points at 13,275. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh
six-week low early on. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 13,597. The next downside
price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 13,300 and then at 13,350.
First support is seen at 13,250 and then at 13,200.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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