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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--Oct. 23

Oct 23, 2012

Tuesday Evening, October 23-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.47 at
$126.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. It was a
“risk-off” day in the market place Tuesday and the key
“outside markets were fully bearish for cattle, as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field, but the bulls need to show fresh power soon.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $128.32. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$125.45. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$127.07 and then at $127.65. First support is seen at
today’s low of $126.50 and then at $126.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

January feeder cattle closed down $0.60 at $148.67 today.
More profit taking was featured today after prices rallied
sharply last week. Feeder bulls and bears are now back on a
level near-term technical playing field. Prices have been
trading choppy and sideways for the past two months. The
next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the September high of $151.40. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the
October low of $146.12. First resistance is seen at $149.00
and then at $149.50. First support is seen at $148.00 and
then at $147.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December lean hogs closed down $0.52 at $78.15 today.
Prices gapped lower on the daily bar chart and closed
nearer the session high. More profit taking was seen after
prices hit a 2.5-month high last Friday. The key “outside
markets” were fully bearish for hogs today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Hog market bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A six-week-old uptrend is in place on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the hog bulls is to push and close prices
above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of $79.77.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing prices below solid technical support at $76.55.
First resistance is seen at $78.60 and then at $79.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $77.80 and then at
$77.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 6 3/4 cents at
7.54 in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. It
was a risk-off day in the market place today and the key
“outside markets” were fully bearish for corn as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Prices are still in a choppy three-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of $7.76. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $7.32 1/4.
First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s high
of $7.62 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $7.69. First
support is seen at today’s low of $7.49 1/2 and then at
$7.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

November soybeans were down 1/4 cent at $15.46 3/4 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
The key “outside markets” were fully bearish for beans
today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were sharply lower. Given the price weakness across
the raw commodity sector today, soybeans did not perform
that badly. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. However, bulls have more work to
do to suggest an uptrend can be sustained. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing November prices above solid
technical resistance at $15.74 a bushel. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the October
low of $14.85 3/4. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of $15.58 1/2 and then at $15.74. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $15.26 1/2 and then at $15.07
1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal was up $1.60 at $472.60 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. More
short covering and bargain hunting were featured. Meal
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at $479.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $450.00. First resistance comes
in at today’s high of $473.80 and then at $475.00. First
support is seen at $470.00 and then at today’s low of
$465.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December bean oil was down 32 points at 51.34 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Bean oil bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 53.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at last week’s
high of 52.47 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 50.96 cents and then at 50.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was down 9 3/4 cents at $8.68
1/2 in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The
key “outside markets” were fully bearish for wheat today as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. Wheat bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of $8.40 1/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.78 1/2 and then at
last week’s high of $8.85 1/2 and then at $8.94. First
support lies at today’s low of $8.60 and then at $8.55 1/2.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat was down 8 1/2 cents at $9.07 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The HRW
bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $9.29 3/4. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $8.72 1/2.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $9.19 3/4
and then at $9.25. First support is seen at today’s low of
$8.98 1/2 and then at $8.92 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

December oats were down 10 cents at $3.85 1/2 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session low on profit
taking. Oats bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage, but did fade today. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.75. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $4.04 1/2. First support lies at today’s low of $3.83
1/2 and then at $3.80. First resistance is seen at $3.88
and then at $3.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 36 points at 19.70 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
six-week low today. The key “outside markets” were fully
bearish for sugar today as the U.S. dollar index was higher
and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Sugar bears have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices above
solid technical resistance at 20.59 cents. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 19.48 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
20.04 cents and then at 20.25 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 19.55 cents and then at 19.48 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December coffee closed down 380 points at 160.70 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low. The key “outside
markets were fully bearish for coffee today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Coffee bears have the solid near-term technical
advantage. However, it’s around present price levels that
recent downtrends have been halted. The next upside
breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at 170.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 156.55 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 164.10 cents and then at Monday’s high of
165.70 cents. First support is seen at 160.00 cents and
then at last week’s low of 157.15 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 2.0

December cocoa closed down $36 at $2,480 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The key “outside
markets were fully bearish for cocoa today as the U.S.
dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were sharply
lower. Cocoa bulls have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $2,595. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
October low of $2,338. First resistance is seen at $2,500
and then at this week’s high of $2,526. First support is
seen at this week’s low of $2,460 and then at $2,440.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December cotton closed down 271 points at 74.22 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit
taking and long liquidation. The key “outside markets” were
fully bearish for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index was
higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Bulls still
have the slight near-term technical advantage but did fade
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 79.19 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push and close prices below solid technical support at
72.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 75.00 cents and
then at 76.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low
of 73.93 cents and then at 73.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5

November orange juice closed down 50 points at $1.1165
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at the October
high of $1.1995. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at the October low of $1.0870.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.1350 and
then at $1.1500. First support is seen at last week’s low
of $1.1055 and then at the October low of $1.0870.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

November lumber futures closed up $1.50 at $298.70 today.
Prices Friday hit a two-month high. Bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at $288.00.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the August high of $308.00. First resistance is seen at
$300.00 and then at $303.00. First support is seen at
$295.00 and then at $292.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $16.20 an
ounce at $1,710.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session
low and hit another fresh six-week low today. Prices also
scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart—
whereby the high was higher and low was lower than the
previous day’s trading range, with a lower close. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the gold market today as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. The gold bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage but have faded badly need to
show fresh power soon to avoid serious near-term chart
damage. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $1,755.50. Bears' next
near-term downside breakout price objective is closing
prices below psychological support at $1,700.00. First
resistance is seen at 1,720.00 and then at today’s high of
$1,731.20. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,705.10 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
5.5

December silver futures closed down $0.452 an ounce at
$31.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit another fresh six-week low. Prices also scored a
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today.
The key “outside markets” were bearish for silver today as
the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
sharply lower. The silver bulls have faded badly and are
now back on a level near-term technical playing field with
the bears. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.00
an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $31.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at
today’s high of $32.50. Next support is seen at today’s low
of $31.65 and then at $31.315. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 525 points at 357.00 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another
fresh six-week low today. The key “outside markets” were in
a bearish posture for copper today as the U.S. dollar index
was higher and crude oil prices were sharply lower. Copper
bulls have faded badly recently and the bears now have the
near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 350.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 360.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 364.10 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
354.80 cents and then at 352.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed down $1.78 a barrel
at $86.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh 13-week low. A stronger U.S. dollar
index and worldwide oil-demand worries pressured crude
today. Crude oil bears have gained good downside technical
momentum. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at $92.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $84.00.
First resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at today’s high
of $89.29. First support is seen at today’s low of $85.69
and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

December heating oil closed down 338 points at $3.0330
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
10-week low today. Bulls and bears are now back on a level
near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.1750. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $3.0000. First resistance lies at
$3.0500 and then at today’s high of $3.0754. First support
is seen at today’s low of $3.0111 and then at $3.0000.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 348 points at
$2.6000 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit another fresh 11-week low. Bulls and bears are now
back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $2.7500. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is closing prices
below solid support at $2.5000. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2.6460 and then at this week’s high of
$2.6931. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.5675
and then at $2.5500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December natural gas closed up 8.3 cents at $3.852 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a six-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.60. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.876 and then at
$3.919. First support is seen at $3.80 and then at last
week’s low of $3.727. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 65 points at 1.2987 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today on profit taking. The
Euro bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the September high of 1.3183. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at last week’s low of 1.2898. First
resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3050 and then at this
week’s high of 1.3090. Next support is seen at today’s low
of 1.2957 and then at 1.2900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed up 6 points at 1.2526
today. Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh
3.5-month low today. Bulls have faded badly recently and
bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1.2675. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the June low of 1.2438. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2550 and then at 1.2600. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2503 and then at 1.2450. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 61 points at 1.0727
today. Prices closed nearer the session low on profit
taking. The Swissy bulls have still the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 1.1000. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the October low of 1.0609. First
resistance is seen at 1.0800 and then at this week’s high
of 1.0821. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0711
and then at 1.0700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December Australian dollar closed down 37 points at
1.0218 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on
more profit taking. Bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at 1.0400. The next downside breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 1.0150. First resistance is
seen at 1.0300 and then at last week’s high of 1.0363. Next
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0191 and then at
1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The December Canadian dollar closed up 15 points at 1.0064
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did
hit another fresh nine-week low early on. Prices did score
a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today.
A five-week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar
chart. Bulls and bears are on an overall level near-term
technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
last week’s high of 1.0231. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen
at 1.0100 and then at 1.0144. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0012 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

The December British pound closed down 57 points at 1.5944
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on more
profit taking and hit a fresh six-week low. Bulls have
faded and are now on a level near-term technical playing
field with the bears. Prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 1.6175.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.5800. First
resistance is seen at 1.6000 and then at this week’s high
of 1.6048. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5909
and then at 1.5850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 28 points at 80.02
today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today
and saw more short covering in a bear market. The bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
the bulls are gaining a bit of upside momentum. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of 80.31.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 78.72. Next resistance lies at today’s
high of 80.15 and then at 80.31. First support is seen at
today’s low of 79.62 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 25/32 at 147 29/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on fresh safe-
haven buying. The bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of 145 23/32. The
next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at 149 even. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 148 4/32 and then at
149 even. First support is seen at 147 even and then at
today’s low of 146 22/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 9.5 (32nds) at 132.13.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
safe-haven buying. Bears still have the slight near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at 133.00.0. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is producing a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 131.23.0. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 132.14.5 and then at
132.26.0. First support is seen at 132.08.0 and then at
132.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
sharply lower today. The stock index bulls are fading
badly. It was a big “risk-off” day in the market place
Tuesday. Disappointing U.S. corporate earnings reports
recently, with DuPont being the latest, have hit the U.S.
stock market hard. Overnight, European stocks were
pressured on fresh worries about Spain’s economic health.
Spanish bond yields rose Tuesday on reports Spain’s central
bank said the Spanish economy contracted by 1.7% in the
third quarter, on an annual basis, versus the 1.3%
contraction in the second quarter. The central bank also
said Spain may not be able to meet its deficit targets.
Also, Moody’s has further downgraded sectors of the Spanish
economy. The Euro currency also weakened on the Spain news.
Arguably the most important economic event of the week is
the meeting of the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market
Committee, which begins Tuesday morning and ends early
Wednesday afternoon. The FOMC is expected to make no major
monetary policy shifts, but the market place will be very
closely scrutinizing wording from the FOMC statement issued
following the meeting. The New York Times reported Tuesday
that it believes Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will not seek
another term as leader of the U.S. central bank. That news
report may have added to trader unease in the market place
Tuesday.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 28.75 at
2,659.00. Prices closed nearer the session low today and
hit a fresh 2.5-month low. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at last week’s high of 2,778.75. The bears' next downside
price breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the August low of 2,600.00. First
resistance is seen at 2,675.00 and then at today’s high of
2,695.25. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,651.50
and then at 2,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 23.30 at 1,406.80.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
seven-week low. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s
high of 1,459.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
support at the September low of 1,394.80. First resistance
is seen at 1,417.00 and then at today’s high of 1,433.10.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,402.20 and then
at 1,394.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 251 points at 13,041. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh seven-
week low. The next upside price objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 13,525. The next downside price objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of 12,965. First resistance in
the Dow lies at 13,100 and then at today’s high of 13,125.
First support is seen at 13,000 and then at 12,965.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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