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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 1

Oct 02, 2012

Monday Evening, October 1-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $1.42 at
$126.12 today. Prices closed near the session high and saw
short covering today. The key “outside markets” were in a
mildly bullish posture for cattle today as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Cattle
bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$127.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $123.95. First
resistance is seen at $126.50 and then at $127.00. First
support is seen at $125.50 and then at $125.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.5

November feeder cattle closed up $1.30 at $145.65 today.
Prices closed near the session high. Short covering in a
bear market was featured today. Near-term technical damage
has been inflicted recently. Bears have the slight near-
term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $148.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at $143.00.
First resistance is seen at $146.00 and then at $146.50.
First support is seen at $145.00 and then at today’s low of
$144.32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December lean hogs closed up $1.35 at $75.10 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering
and some bargain hunting. The key “outside markets” were in
a mildly bullish posture for hogs today, as the U.S. dollar
index was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Hog
market bears have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. However, recent upside price action does hint
that a market bottom is in place. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of
$75.65. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$72.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $75.32
and then at $75.65. First support is seen at $74.50 and
then at $74.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 1 3/4 cents at
7.58 in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range and
hit a fresh two-week high. Friday’s limit-up price move
following a surprisingly bullish USDA report Friday morning
did stop the downside price creep that had been in place
for the past month. However, Friday’s price gains and
today’s lack of strong follow-through buying pressure now
hints that prices in the coming weeks, or longer, are
likely to trade between psychological support at $7.00 and
psychological resistance at $8.00. Friday’s limit gains did
not alter the technical picture in corn by that much. The
corn bulls have regained the slight near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to
push and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$7.89 1/2. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $7.36 1/2. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today’s high of $7.68 1/2 and then
at $7.75. First support is seen at $7.50 and then at $7.45.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were down 34 cents at $15.67 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low.
Friday morning’s USDA report was modestly bearish for
beans, but the limit gains in corn pulled beans higher
Friday. Prices are now hovering back near the recent lows.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field but bean prices have been trending lower for the past
month. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $16.26 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $15.50. First
resistance is seen at $15.75 and then at $15.84. First
support is seen at last week’s low of $15.57 1/2 and then
at $15.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December soybean meal was down $10.20 at $476.70 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and are
back near last week’s low, after a brief spurt higher
Friday. Meal bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. However, prices have been trending
lower for four weeks. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $500.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $455.00. First
resistance comes in at $480.00 and then at $485.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $474.10 and then at last
week’s low of $470.90. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December bean oil was down 146 points at 51.24 cents in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low and
hit a fresh 13-week low today. Bean oil bears have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage and gained more
downside momentum today. Prices are in a steep four-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 53.00
cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at 51.50 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 51.05 cents and then at 50.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was down 21 cents at $8.81 1/2
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low.
Prices remain in a choppy and sideways trading range at
higher price levels. My bias is still that this market has
put in a major top. Wheat bulls still have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next
upside breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $9.07 a bushel. The next downside price breakout
objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $8.49 1/4. First resistance is seen at $8.90 and
then at $9.00. First support lies at today’s low of $8.72
1/4 and then at $8.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was down 22 1/4 cents at $9.05 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low
today. Trading remains in a choppy and sideways trading
range at higher price levels. The bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $9.33 1/2. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $8.72 1/2. First resistance is seen at $9.15 and
then at $9.20. First support is seen at today’s low of
$8.94 3/4 and then at $8.84. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December oats were down 6 1/4 cents at $3.64 1/4 today in
late trading. Prices were near the session low and poised
to close at hit a fresh nine-week low close today. Oats
bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage but are fading a bit. Prices have been trending
lower for the past month. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$3.80 3/4. First support lies at last week’s low of $3.61
1/2 and then at $3.57 3/4. First resistance is seen at
$3.70 and then at today’s high of $3.72 3/4. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 65 points at 21.07 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh six-week high. The key “outside markets” were
mildly bullish for sugar today as the U.S. dollar index was
lower and crude oil prices were firmer. Sugar bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage, but the
bulls did gain some good upside momentum today, to suggest
a market low is in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at 22.00 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 20.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 21.15 cents and then at 21.50 cents.
First support is seen at 20.87 cents and then at 20.75
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December coffee closed up 455 points at 178.05 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a two-
week high. Short covering and bargain hunting were
featured. The key “outside markets” were in a mildly
bullish posture for coffee today as the U.S. dollar index
was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Coffee bulls
now have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside breakout objective for the bulls is to close prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
183.70 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 167.65 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 178.95 cents and then
at 180.00 cents. First support is seen at 176.00 cents and
then at 175.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December cocoa closed down $78 at $2,438 a ton. Prices
closed near the session low today and hit a fresh five-week
low. Cocoa bulls have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage but did fade badly today. Prices have been
trending lower for the past month. The next upside price
breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $2,595. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the August low of $2,364. First
resistance is seen at $2,450 and then at $2,475. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2,435 and then at
$2,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December cotton closed up 55 points at 71.20 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high again today and saw
tepid short covering after hitting a fresh two-month low
early on. The key “outside markets” were in a mildly
bullish posture for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index
was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Cotton bears
have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at the July low of 69.40 cents. First resistance is seen at
72.00 cents and then at 72.67 cents. First support is seen
at today’s low of 70.22 cents and then at 70.00 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

November orange juice closed up 85 points at $1.1400 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw tepid
short covering. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. A bear flag has formed on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls
is pushing and closing prices above technical resistance at
$1.2250. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at $1.1500 and
then at $1.1635. First support is seen at last week’s low
of $1.1200 and then at $1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.0.

November lumber futures closed up $5.80 at $284.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
four-week high on short covering. Bulls have quickly gained
upside momentum and have the near-term technical advantage.
The next downside technical breakout objective for the
lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of $268.80. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$300.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$288.00 and then at $290.00. First support is seen at
$281.00 and then at $280.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $8.00 an ounce
at $1,781.80 today. Prices closed near mid-range, scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart and hit a
fresh seven-month high today. The key “outside markets”
were in a bullish posture today as the U.S. dollar index
was weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Gold bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-month-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective
is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
the 20012 high of $1,800.90. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $1,738.30. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1,794.40 and then at the
$1,800.90. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,765.70 and then at $1,758.00. Wyckoff’s Market Rating:
8.0

December silver futures closed up $0.378 an ounce at $34.96
today. Prices closed near mid-range today, hit a fresh
seven-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on
the daily bar chart. The key “outside markets” were bullish
for the silver market today as the U.S. dollar index was
weaker and crude oil prices were firmer. Silver bulls are
in firm near-term technical command. Prices are in a 10-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $36.00 an ounce. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of $33.36.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $35.445 and
then at $36.00. Next support is seen at $34.50 and then at
today’s low of $34.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 250 points at 378.30 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
The key “outside markets” were bullish for the copper
market today as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude
oil prices were firmer. Copper bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of 383.95
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
364.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
379.80 cents and then at 383.95 cents. First support is
seen at 375.00 cents and then at today’s low of 372.15
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $0.19 a barrel at
$92.38 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on tepid
short covering and bargain hunting. The weaker U.S. dollar
index helped to support crude today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. The next near-
term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil
bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance
at $95.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $88.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $93.33 and then at
$94.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $91.26 and
then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed down 240 points at $3.1352
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
$3.2633. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $3.0000.
First resistance lies at today’s high of $3.1765 and then
at $3.1905. First support is seen at $3.1250 and then at
$3.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 66 points at
$2.9135 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have the solid near-term technical advantage. There are
some gasoline refinery problems in the U.S. and Canada, and
that is helping boost gasoline futures. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the March high of
$3.9884. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the September low of
$2.7029. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
$2.9654 and then at $2.9800. First support is seen at
today’s low of $2.8875 and then at $2.8600. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0.

November natural gas closed up 15.9 cents at $3.479 today.
Prices closed near the session high and hit a fresh 8.5-
month high today. Bulls have gained good upside near-term
technical momentum recently and have the solid near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $3.70. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.20. First resistance is seen
at $3.50 and then at $3.55. First support is seen at $3.40
and then at today’s low of $3.325. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 27 points at 1.2890 today. Prices closed
near mid-range today and did hit a fresh three-week low
earl on. The Euro bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of 1.3183. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2768. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.2950 and
then at last week’s high of 1.2991. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2813 and then at 1.2800. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 3 points at 1.2829
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage but did fade on
Friday. There is some stiff overhead resistance that has
stalled recent rallies. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 1.2977. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 1.2631. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2863 and then at 1.2900. First support is
seen at today’s low of 1.2803 and then at 1.2775. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5.

The December Swiss franc closed up 19 points at 1.0668
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh
three-week low early on. The Swissy bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the September high of 1.0838. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0707 and then at
last week’s high of 1.0739. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0609 and then at 1.0600. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

The December Australian dollar closed down 9 points at
1.0295 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage but have
faded a bit recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
the September high of 1.0537. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0234. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0336 and then at last week’s high of
1.0406. Next support is seen at last week’s low of 1.0256
and then at 1.0234. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

The December Canadian dollar closed up 6 points at 1.0155
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a
close above chart resistance at the September high of
1.0359. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
1.0025. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0189
and then at last week’s high of 1.0231. First support is
seen at last week’s low of 1.0123 and then at the September
low of 1.0059. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December British pound closed down 10 points at 1.6126
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today on profit
taking. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but are fading a bit. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of 1.6304.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at 1.6000. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6171 and then at
1.6200. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.6105 and
then at 1.6065. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 10 points at
79.92 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit
a fresh two-week high early on. The bears have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-
old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at 80.60. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at the September low of
78.72. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 80.25 and
then at 80.60. First support is seen at today’s low of
79.67 and then at 79.42. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 15/32 at 149 27/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high. The bulls still have
some upside near-term technical momentum. The next downside
price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the September low
of 144 15/32. The next upside technical objective for the
bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the September high of 151 29/32. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 150 9/32 and then
at 150 16/32. First support is seen at today’s low of 149
3/32 and then at 148 15/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 4.5 (32nds) at 133.20.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at 134.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.24.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
133.21.5 and then at last week’s high of 133.27.0. First
support is seen at today’s low of 133.11.5 and then at
133.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
mixed but mostly firmer today. Stock index bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices popped
higher in morning trading following remarks from the
Chicago Federal Reserve president Charles Evans, who made
dovish remarks on U.S. monetary policy. He suggested U.S.
monetary policy could remain very accommodative for some
time to come. The precious metals also got support
following a stronger-than-expected reading on the U.S.
manufacturing sector. Comments from Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke at a midday gathering in Indiana contained nothing
new or market-moving. In overnight news, Chinese economic
data released Monday was again downbeat, showing a weak
manufacturing sector via its PMI index. China is on holiday
this week, celebrating Golden Week. A major Japanese
economic report was also released Monday and it also showed
Japanese companies are pessimistic regarding their business
prospects. In Europe, there was some better-than-expected
euro zone manufacturing data issued Monday, which helped to
lift European stock markets. Spanish and Italian bond
yields edged down Monday.
Moody’s was set to release later Monday its latest credit
rating on Spain. Later this week there will be some more
important U.S. economic data released, including the FOMC
minutes on Thursday and the employment report on Friday.
The U.S. presidential debate on Wednesday evening will also
be closely watched by the market place.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 3.00 at
2,789.00. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,900.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of 2,742.75.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,822.50 and
then at 2,836.25. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,777.75 and then at last week’s low of 2,762.25. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 2.90 at 1,437.10.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 1,467.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,395.40. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,451.20 and then at 1,467.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,428.10 and then
at 1,421.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed up 82 points at 13,437. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,750. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 13,500 and then at today’s
high of 13,522. First support is seen at today’s low of
13,437 and then at 13,400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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