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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 13

Oct 14, 2011

Thursday Evening, October 13-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets. *. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $1.67 at $122.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and the bulls gained some fresh upside technical momentum. The overall supply and demand fundamentals in the cash cattle market remain bullish. Cattle bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $123.75. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $123.30 and then at $123.75. First support is seen at $122.50 and then at $122.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 November feeder cattle closed up $0.12 at $143.45 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $140.20. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $144.10 and then at last week’s high of $144.70. First support is seen at $143.00 and then at $142.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5 December lean hogs closed up $0.57 at $88.02 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Hog bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, market tops were put in place in recent months, near last week’s high. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $88.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $86.45. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $88.65 and then at $89.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $87.20 and then at this week’s low of $86.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 *. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 4 cents at $6.36 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. While the corn bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum and have the slight near-term technical advantage, they need to show fresh power soon to keep it. While it does appear a harvest low is in place, a move back lower to challenge the recent low in the near term cannot be ruled out. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s high of $6.43 and then at $6.50. First support is seen at $6.30 and then at today’s low of $6.22. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 November soybeans closed up 14 1/4 cents at $12.53 3/4 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh two-week high on more short covering and bargain-hunting buying. My bias is that soybean prices have also put in a harvest low. Bulls have gained upside near-term technical momentum this week. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above solid technical resistance at $12.80 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.58 and then at $12.70. First support is seen at $12.40 and then at today’s low of $12.30 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December soybean meal closed up $4.60 at $327.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit another fresh two-week high today, on more short covering and bargain-hunting buying interest. Bulls have gained upside momentum and my bias is that prices have put in a harvest low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at $340.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $300.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $328.90 and then at $330.00. First support is seen at $325.00 and then at $322.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December bean oil closed up 51 points at 52.37 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 54.00 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 52.61 cents and then at 53.00 cents. First support is seen at 52.00 cents and then at today’s low of 51.52. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 8 3/4 cents at $6.18 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $6.30 1/2 and then at $6.40. First support lies at today’s low of $6.05 and then at $6.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 10 cents at $7.01 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.11 and then at $7.18. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.89 and then at $6.79. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. December oats closed down 4 1/4 cents at $3.40 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high and saw a corrective pullback from recent gains. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum to suggest a market low is in place. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.37 and then at $3.35. First resistance is seen at today's high of $3.42 1/4 and then at this week’s high of $3.45 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. *. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 85 points at 26.86 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-week high as bulls regained upside momentum today and now have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 27.50 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 25.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 27.08 cents and then at 27.50 cents. First support is seen at 26.63 cents and then at 26.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0 December coffee closed up 820 points at 237.65 cents. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh three-week high on more saw short covering and bargain hunting buying. The bulls today gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that a near-term market bottom is in place. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 246.55 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 240.35 cents and then at 242.50 cents. First support is seen at 235.00 cents and then at 232.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 December cocoa closed up $4 at $2,637 a ton. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured. The cocoa bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,750. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $2,540. First resistance is seen at $2,650 and then at $2,675. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,621 and then at $2,600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5. December cotton closed up 105 points at 101.56 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Cotton bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 105.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at the September low of 98.21 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 99.67 and then at 98.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 102.48 cents and then at 103.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. November orange juice closed up 380 points at $1.6680 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-week high. More short covering and bargain hunting buying were featured today. Bulls have gained good upside near-term technical momentum this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $1.7090. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week’s low of $1.5470. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.6885 and then at $1.7000. First support is seen at $1.6500 and then at today’s low of $1.6300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. November lumber futures closed down $5.20 at $216.80 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained some more downside momentum today. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $227.40. First resistance is seen at $220.00 and then at $222.50. First support is seen at $215.00 and then at today's low of $212.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0 *. METALS: December gold futures closed down $15.40 an ounce at $1,667.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as trading remains choppy. Profit taking from recent gains was featured today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum and have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices have been trending higher on the daily chart for three weeks. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,686.10 and then at this week’s high of $1,693.90. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,654.30 and then at $1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December silver futures closed down $0.974 an ounce at $31.82 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Profit taking from recent gains was seen today. Silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $28.435. First resistance is seen at $32.50 and then at today’s high of $32.80. Next support is seen at today’s low of $31.455 and then at $31.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December N.Y. copper closed down 660 points 332.75 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as a nine-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 337.45 cents and then at 340.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 328.60 cents and then at 325.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. *. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $1.16 a barrel at $84.41 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and profit taking from recent gains was seen. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at $88.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $80.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $85.39 and then at this week’s high of $86.64. First support is seen at $84.00 and then at today’s low of $83.17. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. November heating oil closed up 380 points at $2.9727 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit another fresh three-week high. More short covering and bargain-hunting buying were featured today. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at this week’s low of $2.8449. First resistance lies at today’s high of $2.9786 and then at $3.0000. First support is seen at $2.9500 and then at today’s low of $2.9168. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 87 points at $2.7574. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a fresh three-week high close. Bulls have gained some upside momentum as a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $2.8000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of $2.6497. First resistance is seen at this week's high of $2.7713 and then at $2.8000. First support is seen at $2.7256 and then at $2.7000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. November natural gas closed up 4.8cents at $3.537 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting another fresh contract low early on. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured today. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.40. First resistance is seen at $3.60 and then at this week’s high of $3.63. First support is seen at today’s contract low of $3.446 and then at $3.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. *.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed up 8 points at 1.3787 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again today. The bulls are gaining upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that a near-term market low is in place. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3925. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.3500. First resistance for the Euro lies at this week’s high of 1.3825 and then at 1.3900. Next support is seen at 1.3700 and then at 1.3650. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 The December Japanese yen closed up 70 points at 1.3017 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and regained about half of Wednesday’s big losses. Some minor near-term chart damage was inflicted Wednesday. Bulls so still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.3100. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.3054 and then at 1.3100. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2948 and then at this week’s low of 1.2912. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5. The December Swiss franc closed down 35 points at 1.1160 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more short covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1400. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 1.0749. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.1227 and then at 1.1300. First support is seen at 1.1100 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. The December Australian dollar closed up 21 points at 1.0124 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh three-week high. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0300. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week’s low of .9671. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0155 and then at 1.0200. Next support is seen at 1.0000 and then at .9900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 The December Canadian dollar closed down 35 points at .9801 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have gained a bit of upside near-term technical momentum. Bears do still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at this week’s low of .9611. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of .9853 and then at .9900. First support is seen at today’s low of .9719 and then at .9666. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. The December British pound closed up 25 points at 1.5768 today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh four-week high close. Recent price action suggests a near-term market low is in place. The bulls have gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum recently. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at this week’s low of 1.5517. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.5789 and then at 1.5900. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5655 and then at 1.5600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. The December U.S. dollar index closed down 4 points at 77.22 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today and hit another fresh three-week low. Significant near-term chart damage has occurred recently to now suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 80.43. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 76.58. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 77.74 and then at 78.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 77.09 and then at 76.58. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 26/32 at 139 12/32 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have faded recently but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 136 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at 140 even and then at today’s high of 140 10/32. First support is seen at 139 even and then at today’s low of 138 19/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. December U.S. T Notes closed up 15.0 (32nds) at 128.12.0 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, they have faded and need to show more power soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 127.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 128.26.5 and then at 129.00.0. First support is seen at today's low of 127.30.0 and then at this week’s low of 127.16.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed mixed today in quieter trading. Bulls have gained some upside near-term technical momentum recently to suggest that market lows are in place and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the year. The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 30.50 at 2,326.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh 2.5-month high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 2,100.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 2,336.25 and then at 2,350.00. First support is seen at 2,300.00 and then at today’s low of 2,289.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. The S&P 500 futures index closed down 3.70 at 1,194.50. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,229.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at last week's low of 1,068.50. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,215.50 and then at 1,229.50. First support is seen at 1,180.80 and then at this week’s low of 1,156.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. The Dow futures closed down 21 points at 11,395 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 11,700. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 10,500. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 11,445 and then at 11,500. First support is seen at today’s low of 11,314 and then at 11,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/ IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckoff

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