Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 18
Oct 19, 2011
Tuesday Evening, October 18-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update
Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim
Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp
Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.
*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.32 at
$123.32 today. Prices closed near the session low today and
saw mild profit-taking pressure. Prices Monday hit a fresh
three-month high. The bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The overall supply and
demand fundamentals in the cash cattle market remain
bullish. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at the July high of $125.50. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$120.30. First resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at
this week’s high of $124.45. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $123.20 and then at $122.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0
November feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $143.40 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and saw profit
taking from recent gains. Prices Monday hit a three-month
high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $142.00. First resistance is seen at $144.00
and then at last week’s high of $144.82. First support is
seen at today’s low of $143.25 and then at $143.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5
December lean hogs closed up $0.25 at $90.95 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh contract
high. Hog bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. However, market tops have been put in place in
recent months, near present price levels. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $92.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $88.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $91.45 and
then at $92.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$90.55 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0
*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 4 1/2 cents at
$6.45 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The
corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage
but need to show more power soon to keep it. Prices are in
a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below psychological support at
$6.00. First resistance for December corn is seen at $6.50
and then at last week’s high of $6.55. First support is
seen at $6.40 and then at $6.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5
November soybeans closed down 4 1/2 cents at $12.48 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Soybean bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical
playing field. However, the bears are regaining some
downside technical momentum this week. The next near-term
upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls
is pushing and closing November prices above psychological
resistance at $13.00 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below psychological support at $12.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.53 and then at
$12.60. First support is seen at $12.40 and then at $12.30.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $323.80 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above technical resistance at $340.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at the
October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at
$325.00 and then at $327.50. First support is seen at
$320.00 and then at today’s low of $317.40. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.
December bean oil closed down 26 points at 52.64 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage, but need to show fresh power soon to keep it.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
51.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 53.00 cents and
then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at 52.50 cents
and 52.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents at $6.26
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
more tepid short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears
still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing
and closing prices below major psychological support at
$6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$6.35 1/4 and then at $6.40. First support lies at today’s
low of $6.13 and then at last week’s low of $6.05.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 2 3/4 cents at $7.11
1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the October
low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$7.17 1/2 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at
today’s low of $7.02 1/2 and then at $6.89. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.
December oats closed down 3/4 cent at $3.38 3/4 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on
a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.36 and then at $3.33.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.41 1/4 and
then at $3.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 13 points at 27.66 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today on
some profit taking after hitting a fresh four-week high on
Monday. The market has seen a corrective pullback. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Recent heavy rains in Thailand have reportedly destroyed
much of that country’s sugar crop. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 29.00 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at 26.00 cents. First resistance is
seen at 28.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 28.35
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 27.41 cents
and then at 27.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
December coffee closed down 360 points at 230.40 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The coffee
market was pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index again
today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at
246.55 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of 219.80 cents a pound. First
resistance is seen at 234.00 cents and then at today’s high
of 236.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low
of 228.35 cents and then at 225.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0
December cocoa closed down $34 at $2,588 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh
contract low early on. A firmer U.S. dollar index helped to
pressure cocoa again today. The cocoa bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,607
and then at $2,650. First support is seen at $2,540 and
then at today’s contract low of $2,523. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.
December cotton closed down 18 points at 100.18 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter
trading. The market was pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar
index again today. Cotton bulls and bears are still on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at 105.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 98.21 cents. First support is seen at
98.21 and then at 97.50 cents. First resistance is seen at
101.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 102.48 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
January orange juice closed up 135 points at $1.6815 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit another
fresh nine-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up
on the daily bar chart today. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today.
The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $1.7250. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.6000. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.6895 and then at $1.7100. First
support is seen at $1.6575 and then at today’s low of
1.6255. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.
November lumber futures closed up $4.40 at $228.70 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw more
short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at the contract low of
$211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $240.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $230.40 and then at $235.00. First support is seen
at today's low of $228.00 and then at $225.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0
*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $24.00 an
ounce at $1,652.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range
today. The market was pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar
index and by a “risk off” mentality in the market place,
which has been bearish for safe-haven gold when it has
occurred in recent trading sessions. Gold bulls have faded
this week. A three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart
was at least temporarily negated today. Bulls' next upside
technical objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-term
downside price objective is closing prices below
psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1,678.20 and then at this week’s
high of $1,696.80. First support is seen at today’s low of
$1,628.20 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.0.
December silver futures closed up $0.004 an ounce at
$31.825 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
A firmer U.S. dollar index pressured the silver market
today. Silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price
objective is producing a close above strong technical
resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $30.00. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of $32.12 and then at this week’s high of
$32.675. Next support is seen at $31.50 and then at $31.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 125 points 336.55 cents
today. Prices closed near the session high today. A firmer
U.S. dollar index pressured copper today. Copper bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage as a 2.5-month-
old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and
then at this week’s high of 346.35 cents. First support is
seen at 335.00 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.
*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $1.88 a barrel at
$88.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today,
hit a fresh four-week high and scored a bullish “outside
day” up on the daily bar chart. Crude bulls still the
overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh
upside momentum today. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at the September
high of $90.96 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $83.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $88.80 and then at
$90.00. First support is seen at $88.00 and then at $87.00.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
December heating oil closed up 165 points at $3.0267 today.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of
$3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000.
First resistance lies at $3.0500 and then at this week’s
high of $3.0869. First support is seen at $3.0000 and then
at today’s low of $2.9688. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 79 points at
$2.7170. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
last week’s low of $2.5861. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2.7241 and then at $2.7500. First support
is seen at $2.7000 and then at $2.6750. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.
December natural gas closed down 11.5 cents at $3.788
today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage
as prices are back down near the contract low. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high
of $4.039. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is closing prices below solid technical support
at $3.70. First resistance is seen at $3.85 and then at
today’s high of $3.914. First support is seen at today’s
low of $3.782 and then at the contract low of $3.747.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.
*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 57 points at 1.3793 today. Prices closed
near the session high today. The bulls still have some
upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that a near-
term market low is in place. Euro bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.3925. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid chart support at 1.3500. First resistance for
the Euro lies at 1.3850 and then at this week’s high of
1.3905. Next support is seen at 1.3700 and then at today’s
low of 1.3645. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
The December Japanese yen closed up 8 points at 1.3037
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Trading remains
choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at last week’s high of 1.3120. Bears' next
downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.3068 and then
at 1.3100. First support is seen at 1.3000 and then at
1.2950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.
The December Swiss franc closed up 45 points at 1.1178
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1400. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
1.0749. First resistance is seen at 1.1200 and then at this
week’s high of 1.1272. First support is seen at today’s low
of 1.1062 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
The December Australian dollar closed up 112 points at
1.0234 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at .9800.
First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0292 and
then at 1.0400. Next support is seen at 1.0150 and then at
1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
The December Canadian dollar closed up 80 points at .9871
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of .9611. First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at
this week’s high of .9941. First support is seen at .9800
and then at today’s low of .9727. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.
The December British pound closed up 14 points at 1.5755
today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Recent price
action suggests a near-term market low is in place. The
bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum. Bears
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage, however. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at last week’s low of 1.5517. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 1.5842 and then at 1.5900.
First support is seen at 1.5700 and then at today’s low of
1.5621. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
The December U.S. dollar index closed down 31 points at
77.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Significant near-term chart damage has occurred recently to
suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to close prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of 80.43.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
to produce a close below solid technical support at 76.00.
Next resistance lies at 77.50 and then at today’s high of
77.85. First support is seen at 77.00 and then at this
week’s low of 76.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 22/32 at 139 2/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have
faded recently but still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 136 even. The next upside
technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at 142 even. First
resistance is seen at 140 even and then at today’s high of
141 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 138 21/32
and then at 138 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
December U.S. T Notes closed down 5.5 (32nds) at 128.17.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
However, they have faded and need to show more power soon.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
127.00.0. First resistance is seen at 129.00.0 and then at
today’s high of 129.09.5. First support is seen at 128.00.0
and then at last week’s low of 127.16.5. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
higher today on some fresh optimism about the European
Union debt and financial crisis seeing a substantive plan
put in place soon. Stock index bulls still have upside
near-term technical momentum to suggest that market lows
are in place and that prices can trend sideways to higher
into the end of the year.
The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 44.50 at 2,365.75
today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at 2,100.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,388.50 and then
at 2,400.00. First support is seen at 2,350.00 and then at
2,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
The S&P 500 futures index closed up 29.10 at 1,223.00.
Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,100.00. First resistance is seen at this
week’s high of 1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. First support
is seen at 1,200.00 and then at today’s low of 1,185.80.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
The Dow futures closed up 189 points at 11,490 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. The next
upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
11,700. The next downside price objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 11,000.
First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 11,590
and then at 11,700. First support is seen at 11,400 and
then at 11,300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
