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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 18

Oct 19, 2011
Tuesday Evening, October 18-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets. *. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.32 at $123.32 today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw mild profit-taking pressure. Prices Monday hit a fresh three-month high. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The overall supply and demand fundamentals in the cash cattle market remain bullish. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $125.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at $124.00 and then at this week’s high of $124.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $123.20 and then at $122.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 November feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $143.40 today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw profit taking from recent gains. Prices Monday hit a three-month high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $142.00. First resistance is seen at $144.00 and then at last week’s high of $144.82. First support is seen at today’s low of $143.25 and then at $143.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5 December lean hogs closed up $0.25 at $90.95 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh contract high. Hog bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, market tops have been put in place in recent months, near present price levels. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $92.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at today’s contract high of $91.45 and then at $92.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $90.55 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0 *. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 4 1/2 cents at $6.45 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First resistance for December corn is seen at $6.50 and then at last week’s high of $6.55. First support is seen at $6.40 and then at $6.35. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 November soybeans closed down 4 1/2 cents at $12.48 1/2 a bushel today. Prices closed near the session high today. Soybean bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. However, the bears are regaining some downside technical momentum this week. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above psychological resistance at $13.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.53 and then at $12.60. First support is seen at $12.40 and then at $12.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December soybean meal closed up $0.80 at $323.80 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at $340.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at $325.00 and then at $327.50. First support is seen at $320.00 and then at today’s low of $317.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December bean oil closed down 26 points at 52.64 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but need to show fresh power soon to keep it. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 51.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 53.00 cents and then at 53.50 cents. First support is seen at 52.50 cents and 52.21. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 1 3/4 cents at $6.26 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw more tepid short covering in a bear market. Wheat bears still have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $6.35 1/4 and then at $6.40. First support lies at today’s low of $6.13 and then at last week’s low of $6.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 2 3/4 cents at $7.11 1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.17 1/2 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.02 1/2 and then at $6.89. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. December oats closed down 3/4 cent at $3.38 3/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.36 and then at $3.33. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.41 1/4 and then at $3.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 *. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 13 points at 27.66 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today on some profit taking after hitting a fresh four-week high on Monday. The market has seen a corrective pullback. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Recent heavy rains in Thailand have reportedly destroyed much of that country’s sugar crop. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at 29.00 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 26.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 28.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 28.35 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 27.41 cents and then at 27.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0 December coffee closed down 360 points at 230.40 cents. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The coffee market was pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index again today. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 246.55 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 234.00 cents and then at today’s high of 236.00 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 228.35 cents and then at 225.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0 December cocoa closed down $34 at $2,588 a ton. Prices closed nearer the session high today and did hit a fresh contract low early on. A firmer U.S. dollar index helped to pressure cocoa again today. The cocoa bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,607 and then at $2,650. First support is seen at $2,540 and then at today’s contract low of $2,523. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. December cotton closed down 18 points at 100.18 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The market was pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar index again today. Cotton bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 105.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at the September low of 98.21 cents. First support is seen at 98.21 and then at 97.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 101.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 102.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. January orange juice closed up 135 points at $1.6815 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit another fresh nine-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart today. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.7250. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.6000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.6895 and then at $1.7100. First support is seen at $1.6575 and then at today’s low of 1.6255. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. November lumber futures closed up $4.40 at $228.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and saw more short covering. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $240.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $230.40 and then at $235.00. First support is seen at today's low of $228.00 and then at $225.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0 *. METALS: December gold futures closed down $24.00 an ounce at $1,652.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The market was pressured by a firmer U.S. dollar index and by a “risk off” mentality in the market place, which has been bearish for safe-haven gold when it has occurred in recent trading sessions. Gold bulls have faded this week. A three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart was at least temporarily negated today. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,678.20 and then at this week’s high of $1,696.80. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,628.20 and then at $1,600.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December silver futures closed up $0.004 an ounce at $31.825 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. A firmer U.S. dollar index pressured the silver market today. Silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $32.12 and then at this week’s high of $32.675. Next support is seen at $31.50 and then at $31.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December N.Y. copper closed down 125 points 336.55 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today. A firmer U.S. dollar index pressured copper today. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a 2.5-month- old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 340.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 346.35 cents. First support is seen at 335.00 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. *. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $1.88 a barrel at $88.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today, hit a fresh four-week high and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Crude bulls still the overall near-term technical advantage and gained fresh upside momentum today. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of $90.96 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $83.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $88.80 and then at $90.00. First support is seen at $88.00 and then at $87.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. December heating oil closed up 165 points at $3.0267 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000. First resistance lies at $3.0500 and then at this week’s high of $3.0869. First support is seen at $3.0000 and then at today’s low of $2.9688. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 79 points at $2.7170. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $2.5861. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.7241 and then at $2.7500. First support is seen at $2.7000 and then at $2.6750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December natural gas closed down 11.5 cents at $3.788 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are back down near the contract low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $4.039. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70. First resistance is seen at $3.85 and then at today’s high of $3.914. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.782 and then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. *.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed up 57 points at 1.3793 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that a near- term market low is in place. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3925. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.3500. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3850 and then at this week’s high of 1.3905. Next support is seen at 1.3700 and then at today’s low of 1.3645. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 The December Japanese yen closed up 8 points at 1.3037 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Trading remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of 1.3120. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.3068 and then at 1.3100. First support is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.2950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5. The December Swiss franc closed up 45 points at 1.1178 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1400. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 1.0749. First resistance is seen at 1.1200 and then at this week’s high of 1.1272. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.1062 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. The December Australian dollar closed up 112 points at 1.0234 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .9800. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0292 and then at 1.0400. Next support is seen at 1.0150 and then at 1.0100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 The December Canadian dollar closed up 80 points at .9871 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of .9611. First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at this week’s high of .9941. First support is seen at .9800 and then at today’s low of .9727. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. The December British pound closed up 14 points at 1.5755 today. Prices closed nearer the session high. Recent price action suggests a near-term market low is in place. The bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum. Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, however. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5517. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.5842 and then at 1.5900. First support is seen at 1.5700 and then at today’s low of 1.5621. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. The December U.S. dollar index closed down 31 points at 77.11 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Significant near-term chart damage has occurred recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 80.43. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 76.00. Next resistance lies at 77.50 and then at today’s high of 77.85. First support is seen at 77.00 and then at this week’s low of 76.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 22/32 at 139 2/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls have faded recently but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 136 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at 140 even and then at today’s high of 141 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 138 21/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. December U.S. T Notes closed down 5.5 (32nds) at 128.17.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, they have faded and need to show more power soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 127.00.0. First resistance is seen at 129.00.0 and then at today’s high of 129.09.5. First support is seen at 128.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 127.16.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today on some fresh optimism about the European Union debt and financial crisis seeing a substantive plan put in place soon. Stock index bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in place and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the year. The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 44.50 at 2,365.75 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 2,100.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 2,388.50 and then at 2,400.00. First support is seen at 2,350.00 and then at 2,325.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. The S&P 500 futures index closed up 29.10 at 1,223.00. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 1,100.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. First support is seen at 1,200.00 and then at today’s low of 1,185.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. The Dow futures closed up 189 points at 11,490 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 11,700. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 11,000. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 11,590 and then at 11,700. First support is seen at 11,400 and then at 11,300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/ IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckoff
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