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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 19

Oct 20, 2011
Wednesday Evening, October 19-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets. *. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.37 at $122.95 today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw more mild profit-taking pressure. Traders are awaiting Friday’s USDA cattle-on-feed report. The bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The overall supply and demand fundamentals in the cash cattle market remain bullish. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $125.50. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at $123.50 and then at $124.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $122.85 and then at $122.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 November feeder cattle closed down $0.77 at $142.62 today. Prices closed near the session low today and saw more profit taking from recent gains. Bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $142.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $143.25 and then at $144.00. First support is seen at $142.00 and then at $141.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 December lean hogs closed down $0.90 at $90.05 today. Prices closed near the session low and saw profit-taking pressure today. Prices Tuesday hit a contract high. Hog bulls still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, market tops have been put in place in recent months, near present price levels. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $92.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at today’s $90.85 and then at the contract high of $91.45. First support is seen at today’s low of $90.00 and then at this week’s low of $89.45. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5 *. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 5 cents at $6.39 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The corn bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage but need to show more power soon to keep it. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $6.00. First resistance for December corn is seen at $6.45 and then at today’s high of $6.51 1/4. First support is seen at today’s low of $6.37 1/2 and then at $6.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 November soybeans closed down 25 3/4 cents at $12.25 a bushel today. Prices closed near the session low today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Soybean bears today regained the near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above psychological resistance at last week’s high of $12.75 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at $12.40 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.23 1/2 and then at $12.11 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December soybean meal closed down $4.60 at $319.70 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at $340.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at $322.50 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $317.40 and then at $315.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December bean oil closed down 120 points at 51.50 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today. Bulls faded today. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 51.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at 52.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 51.40 cents and 51.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5 December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 6 1/4 cents at $6.19 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.25 and then at today’s high of $6.37 3/4. First support lies at today’s low of $6.18 and then at this week’s low of $6.13. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 6 cents at $7.05 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.50. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $6.79. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.20 and then at $7.25. First support is seen at $7.00 and then at $6.89. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. December oats closed down 1 1/2 cents at $3.37 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.35 3/4 and then at $3.32. First resistance is seen at $3.40 and then at today’s high of $3.43 3/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 *. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 99 points at 26.86 cents today. Prices closed near the session low again today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls faded today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of 28.35 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 26.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 27.00 cents and then at 27.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 26.84 cents and then at 26.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 December coffee closed up 465 points at 236.15 cents. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 246.55 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 239.25 cents and then at 241.00 cents. First support is seen at 235.00 cents and then at 232.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5 December cocoa closed up $33 at $2,604 a ton. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw short covering in a bear market. The cocoa bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,648 and then at this week’s high of $2,688. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,574 and then at $2,550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5. December cotton closed down 46 points at 99.72 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. Cotton bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 105.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at the September low of 98.21 cents. First support is seen at 98.21 and then at 97.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 101.00 cents and then at this week’s high of 102.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. January orange juice closed steady at $1.6870 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh nine-week high early on. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh upside momentum this week. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.7250. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.6000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.7090 and then at $1.7250. First support is seen at today’s low of $1.6770 and then at $1.6500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. November lumber futures closed down $6.70 at $222.00 today. Prices closed near the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $240.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $226.00 and then at this week’s high of $230.40. First support is seen at today's low of $222.00 and then at $220.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5 *. METALS: December gold futures closed down $7.70 an ounce at $1,645.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The market was pressured by another “risk off” day in the market place, which has been bearish for safe-haven gold when it has occurred in recent trading sessions. Gold bulls have faded this week. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,666.90 and then at $1,678.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,642.50 and then at this week’s low of $1,628.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December silver futures closed down $0.591 an ounce at $31.24 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Silver bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $32.15 and then at this week’s high of $32.675. Next support is seen at $31.00 and then at this week’s low of $30.37. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December N.Y. copper closed down 1,210 points 323.95 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh two-week low. Copper bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as a 2.5-month-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 350.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 300.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 330.00 cents and then at 335.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 323.85 cents and then at 320.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5. *. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed down $2.24 a barrel at $86.30 today. Prices closed near the session low today after hitting a fresh four-week high early on. Prices toda scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Crude bulls and bears are now back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above strong technical resistance at the September high of $90.96 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $83.00. First resistance is seen at $87.00 and then at $87.50. First support is seen at this week’s low of $85.75 and then at $85.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December heating oil closed down 418 points at $2.9853 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000. First resistance lies at $3.0000 and then at $3.0250. First support is seen at this week’s low of $2.9688 and then at $2.9500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 705 points at $2.6468. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of $2.5861. First resistance is seen at $2.6750 and then at $2.7000. First support is seen at today’s low of $2.6406 and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December natural gas closed up 3.2 cents at $3.82 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw tepid short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are back down near the contract low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $4.039. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.854 and then at $3.914. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.784 and then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. *.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed up 3 points at 1.3737 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.3925. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at 1.3500. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3800 and then at today’s high of 1.3862. Next support is seen at 1.3700 and then at this week’s low of 1.3645. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 The December Japanese yen closed down 1 point at 1.3038 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Trading remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last week’s high of 1.3120. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.3068 and then at 1.3100. First support is seen at 1.3000 and then at 1.2950. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5. The December Swiss franc closed down 41 points at 1.1086 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1400. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 1.0749. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.1183 and then at this week’s high of 1.1272. First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.1062 and then at 1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. The December Australian dollar closed down 25 points at 1.0140 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0400. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at .9800. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0292 and then at 1.0400. Next support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0041 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 The December Canadian dollar closed down 38 points at .9779 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of .9611. First resistance is seen at .9850 and then at today’s high of .9901. First support is seen at this week’s low of .9727 and then at .9700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. The December British pound closed up 51 points at 1.5758 today. Prices closed near mid-range today but did poke to a fresh five-week high early on today. Recent price action suggests a near-term market low is in place. The bulls have some upside near-term technical momentum. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6000. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5517. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5847 and then at 1.5900. First support is seen at 1.5700 and then at this week’s low of 1.5621. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. The December U.S. dollar index closed up 3 points at 77.41 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently to suggest a near-term market top is in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 80.43. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 76.00. Next resistance lies at this week’s high of 77.85 and then at 78.00. First support is seen at 77.00 and then at this week’s low of 76.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 5/32 at 139 14/32 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have faded recently but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 136 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at 140 even and then at this week’s high of 141 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 138 16/32 and then at 138 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. December U.S. T Notes closed up 0.5 (32nds) at 128.27.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, they have faded and need to show more power soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 127.00.0. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 129.02.0 and then at this week’s high of 129.09.5. First support is seen at today’s low of 128.10.0 and then at 128.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed weaker today on some fresh worries about the European Union debt and financial crisis. Trading has turned choppy recently. Stock index bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in place and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the year. The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 45.00 at 2,318.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 2,100.00. First resistance is seen at 2,350.00 and then at today’s high of 2,368.25. First support is seen at 2,300.00 and then at 2,275.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. The S&P 500 futures index closed down 15.90 at 1,207.20. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 1,100.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1,230.70 and then at 1,250.00. First support is seen at 1,200.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,185.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. The Dow futures closed down 89 points at 11,437 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of 11,700. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 11,000. First resistance in the Dow lies at 11,500 and then at today’s high of 11,570. First support is seen at 11,400 and then at 11,350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/ IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckoff
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