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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 24

Oct 25, 2011
Monday Evening, October 24-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets. *. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.72 at $122.87 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The market shrugged off a bearish USDA cattle on feed report issued Friday afternoon, at least for now. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the cattle market today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $124.45. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October week’s low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at $123.10 and then at $123.75. First support is seen at $122.50 and then at $122.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 November feeder cattle closed up $0.07 at $142.80 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $141.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $143.00 and then at $143.55. First support is seen at today’s low of $142.37 and then at $142.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 December lean hogs closed down $0.82 at $88.82 today. Prices closed nearer the session low. The market was pressured by a bearish USDA cold storage report out Friday. However, losses were limited by bullish “outside markets” today that included a stronger stock market, sharply higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index. Hog bulls do still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are now fading a bit. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s contract high of $91.45. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at $89.00 and then at $89.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $88.60 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 *. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 1/2 cent at $6.49 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The corn bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage, but could not get much traction today amid the bullish “outside markets” that included a stronger stock market, sharply higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar index. Corn prices are still in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $6.20. First resistance for December corn is seen at $6.55 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at $6.45 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 November soybeans closed up 15 1/4 cents at $12.27 1/2 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the soybean market today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. Soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above technical resistance at the October high of $12.75 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.39 3/4 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.09 1/2 and then at $12.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December soybean meal closed up $4.10 at $320.60 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at the October high of $330.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $323.10 and then at $325.00. First support is seen at $317.40 and then at last week’s low of $314.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December bean oil closed up 51 points at 51.76 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the bean oil market today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. Bean oil bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at today’s high of 52.35 cents. First support is seen at 51.50 cents and then at today’s low of 51.06 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5 December Chicago SRW wheat closed up 9 1/2 cents at $6.41 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering in a bear market. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the wheat market today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. Wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First support lies at today’s low of $6.30 1/2 and then at $6.25 Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. December K.C. HRW wheat closed up 10 1/2 cents at $7.33 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session high and closed at a fresh four-week high close today. Short covering was featured. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.60. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at $7.40 and then at $7.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $7.26 and then at $7.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. December oats closed up 3 cents at $3.40 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.37 3/4 and then at last week’s low of $3.34. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.45 and then at the October high of $3.47. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 *. SOFTS: March sugar closed up 67 points at 27.15 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering and bargain hunting were featured today. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the sugar market today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 28.35 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 26.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 27.30 cents and then at 27.50 cents. First support is seen at 27.00 cents and then at today’s low of 26.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 December coffee closed up 630 points at 251.15 cents. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh five-week high. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the coffee market today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. The coffee bulls have quickly gained upside momentu and have the overall near-term technical advantage. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 260.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 235.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 251.50 cents and then at 252.50 cents. First support is seen at 250.00 cents and then at 246.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 December cocoa closed up $59 at $2,625 a ton. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key “outside markets” were bullish for the cocoa market today, as the U.S. dollar index was weaker and crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were higher. The cocoa bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,632 and then at $2,650. First support is seen at $2,600 and then at today’s low of $2,558. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0. December cotton closed up 84 points at 97.94 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today Prices Friday hit a fresh nine-week low. Cotton bears have the slight near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the October high of 104.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at the August low of 93.72 cents. First support is seen at last week’s low of 96.47 cents and then at 95.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 98.80 cents and then at 100.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. January orange juice closed up 390 points at $1.7410 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh nine-week high. FCOJ bulls have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.8000. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.6500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.7475 and then at $1.7650. First support is seen at $1.7250 and then at today’s low of $1.7020. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. November lumber futures closed up $3.50 at $223.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering was featured. The bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $230.40. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $225.50 and then at $227.40. First support is seen at today's low of $220.50 and then at $217.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5 *. METALS: December gold futures closed up $15.30 an ounce at $1,651.50 today. Prices closed near mid-range today as trading remains choppy and sideways. It was a “risk on” trading day in the market place today, and those types of trading days have been bullish most commodity markets, including gold, recently. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,705.40. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,663.60 and then at $1,680.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,636.60 and then at $1,625.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December silver futures closed up $0.392 an ounce at $31.585 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and were supported by a weaker U.S. dollar index and higher crude oil prices. Silver bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $28.435. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $32.04 and then at $33.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $31.23 and then at $31.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December N.Y. copper closed up 2,350 points 345.80 cents today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh four-week high. The key “outside markets” were bullish for copper today, including a weaker U.S. dollar index and sharply higher crude oil prices. A bullish double-bottom reversal pattern may now be forming on the daily bar chart. Copper bears still have the overall near- term technical advantage, but the bulls did gain momentum today as a 2.5-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart was also negated. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 347.00 cents and then at 350.00 cents. First support is seen at 345.00 cents and then at 340.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. *. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $4.24 a barrel at $91.63 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh 11-week high. Crude bulls gained good upside near-term technical momentum today as prices pushed above what was a well-defined sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. The crude market was boosted today by a weaker U.S. dollar index, higher U.S. stock indexes and ideas the EU debt crisis is seeing progress toward getting fixed. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $95.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $84.00. First resistance is seen at $92.00 and then at $92.50. First support is seen at $91.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. December heating oil closed up 418 points at $3.0577 today. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000. First resistance lies at last week’s high of $3.0869 and then at $3.1040. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.0150 and then at $3.000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 141 points at $2.6723. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.5861. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2.6969 and then at $2.7250. First support is seen at $2.6500 and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December natural gas closed down 3.1 cents at $3.795 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are back down near the contract low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $4.039. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.865 and then at $3.914. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.776 and then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. *.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed up 73 points at 1.3932 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh seven-week high. Bulls have regained the slight near-term technical advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at last week’s low of 1.3645. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3949 and then at 1.4000. Next support is seen at 1.3900 and then at today’s low of 1.3815. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 The December Japanese yen closed down 10 points at 1.3160 today. Prices closed near the session high today and held onto the big gains scored Friday, which pushed prices to a new contract high and saw a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range at higher price levels. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.3300. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 1.2912. First resistance is seen at Friday’s contract high of 1.3216 and then at 1.3250. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.3083 and then at 1.3050. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0. The December Swiss franc closed up 48 points at 1.1363 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh six-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish “rounding-bottom” reversal pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1600. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.1000. First resistance is seen at 1.1400 and then at 1.1450. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.1274 and then at 1.1200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. The December Australian dollar closed up 143 points at 1.0408 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh six-week high. Prices are in a steep four- week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage and gained more upside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of 1.0630. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0429 and then at 1.0500. Next support is seen at 1.0314 and then at today’s low of 1.0229. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0 The December Canadian dollar closed up 46 points at .9939 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh five-week high. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .9700. First resistance is seen at today’s high of .9965 and then at 1.0000. First support is seen at today’s low of .9887 and then at .9850. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. The December British pound closed up 43 points at 1.5973 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh six-week high. The bulls have upside near-term technical momentum. A steep three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5621. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.5998 and then at 1.6050. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5890 and then at 1.5800. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. The December U.S. dollar index closed down 28 points at 76.34 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh six-week low. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 78.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week’s low of 76.00. Next resistance lies at today’s high of 76.77 and then at 77.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 76.19 and then at 76.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 13/32 at 138 3/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, prices have been trending lower for four-week and the bulls need to show fresh power soon. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 137 13/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at 139 even and then at 140 even. First support is seen at today’s low of 137 29/32 and then at 137 13/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5. December U.S. T Notes closed down 9.5 (32nds) at 128.11.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading and need to show fresh power soon. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the October low of 127.16.5. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 128.28.0 and then at 129.02.0. First support is seen at 128.07.0 and then at 128.00.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed higher today, with the Dow and S&P index hitting 11-week highs. Stock index bulls have upside near-term technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in place and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the year. It’s been a very good October for the stock market bulls. The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 40.25 at 2,374.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 2,200.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of 2,388.50 and then at 2,400.00. First support is seen at 2,350.00 and then at today’s low of 2,320.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. The S&P 500 futures index closed up 12.30 at 1,247.50. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh 11-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 1,125.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,252.50 and then at 1,270.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,227.50 and then at 1,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. The Dow futures closed up 68 points at 11,825 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh 11-week high. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above psychological resistance at 12,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 11,231. First resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 11,875 and then at 11,950. First support is seen at today’s low of 11,775 and then at 11,700. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/ IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckoff
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