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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 25

Oct 26, 2011
Tuesday Evening, October 25-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets. *. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.87 at $122.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of $124.45. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at $122.50 and then at $123.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $121.70 and then at last week’s low of $121.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0 November feeder cattle closed down $1.00 at $141.80 today. Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a fresh three-week low close. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit and need to show fresh power soon. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $141.00. First resistance is seen at $142.50 and then at this week’s high of $143.00. First support is seen at $141.50 and then at $141.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5 December lean hogs closed down $0.97 at $87.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two- week low today. Hog bulls do still have the overall near- term technical advantage, but are fading. Cash hog market fundamentals are also fading a bit. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $86.75. First resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at today’s high of $88.67. First support is seen at today’s low of $87.75 and then at $87.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0 *. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 1 1/4 cents at $6.52 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in quieter trading. The corn bulls still have the slight near- term technical advantage. Corn prices are still in a three- week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.20. First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s high of $6.58 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $6.65 1/2. First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.46 1/2 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 November soybeans closed down 2 3/4 cents at $12.24 a bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above technical resistance at the October high of $12.75 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.36 and then at $12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.17 1/2 and then at this week’s low of $12.09 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December soybean meal closed down $0.10 at $321.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at the October high of $330.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at today’s high of $323.90 and then at $325.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $317.60 and then at last week’s low of $314.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. December bean oil closed down 36 points at 51.43 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and then at today’s high of 52.40 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of 51.06 cents and then at last week’s low of 50.54 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0 December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 5 3/4 cents at $6.36 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at $6.50 and then at $6.60. First support lies at this week’s low of $6.30 1/2 and then at $6.25 Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents at $7.33 1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $7.60. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below psychological support at $7.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.42 and then at last week’s high of $7.45. First support is seen at this week’s low of $7.26 and then at $7.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. December oats closed down 3 1/2 cents at $3.37 1/2 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First support lies at today’s low of $3.37 and then at last week’s low of $3.34. First resistance is seen at $3.40 and then at today’s high of $3.44. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0 *. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 14 points at 26.96 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Sugar bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of 28.35 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 26.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 27.30 cents and then at 27.50 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 26.86 cents and then at this week’s low of 26.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 December coffee closed down 1,510 points at 235.70 cents. Prices closed near the session low today after hitting a fresh five-week high early on. Prices today scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart and the bulls quickly faded. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at today’s high of 252.50 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 240.00 cents and then at 243.55 cents. First support is seen at 235.00 cents and then at 232.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5 December cocoa closed up $22 at $2,649 a ton. Prices closed near mid-range today. Short covering in a bear market was featured today. The cocoa bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $2,523. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $2,674 and then at $2,700. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,613 and then at $2,600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5. December cotton closed up 172 points at 99.66 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering and bargain-hunting buying were featured today. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the October high of 104.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at the August low of 93.72 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 97.57 cents and then at last week’s low of 96.47 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 100.63 cents and then at 101.42 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. January orange juice closed down 20 points at $1.7395 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after hitting a fresh nine-week high early on. FCOJ bulls still have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $1.8000. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $1.6500. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1.7560 and then at $1.7650. First support is seen at today’s low of $1.7365 and then at $1.7250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. November lumber futures closed down $2.80 at $220.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $230.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $225.50 and then at $227.40. First support is seen at today's low of $219.00 and then at $217.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0 *. METALS: December gold futures closed up $47.20 an ounce at $1,699.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-week high on a surge of safe- haven demand amid fresh US debt crisis uncertainty. Bulls today gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum to re-establish a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Prices also pushed right up to strong resistance at the August spike low of $1,705.40. A push above that level would likely set off fresh buy stop orders to push prices even higher. Bulls now have the near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at $1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00. First resistance is seen at $1,705.40 and then at $1,725.00. First support is seen at $1,675.00 and then at $1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. December silver futures closed up $1.431 an ounce at $33.075 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-week high as the bulls today gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum to re-establish a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The silver bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage. Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $29.935. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $33.335 and then at $33.585. Next support is seen at $32.50 and then at $32.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. December N.Y. copper closed down 330 points 341.60 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did hit a fresh four-week high early on. The key “outside markets” were mostly bearish for copper today, including a firmer U.S. dollar index and lower U.S. stock market. Still, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. Copper bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support 320.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 345.00 cents and then at 350.00 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 335.80 cents and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0. *. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $1.92 a barrel at $93.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh 11-week high. Crude bulls have gained solid upside near-term technical momentum this week as prices have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from what was a well- defined sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a close above strong technical resistance at $98.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at $88.00. First resistance is seen at $94.00 and then at today’s high of $94.65. First support is seen at $92.50 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. December heating oil closed down 5 points at $3.0522 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000. First resistance lies at last week’s high of $3.0869 and then at $3.1040. First support is seen at this week’s low of $3.0150 and then at $3.000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 55 points at $2.6758. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.5861. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $2.6969 and then at $2.7250. First support is seen at $2.6500 and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0. December natural gas closed up 5.6 cents at $3.85 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today on short covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still down near the contract low. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the October high of $4.039. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.888 and then at $4.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.775 and then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0. *.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed down 20 points at 1.3920 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh seven-week high. Bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.4000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at last week’s low of 1.3645. First resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3954 and then at 1.4000. Next support is seen at 1.3900 and then at today’s low of 1.3842. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5 The December Japanese yen closed up 24 points at 1.3182 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and closed at a fresh contract high close. Prices have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range at higher price levels. Bulls have the solid overall near- term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.3300. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the October low of 1.2912. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 1.3216 and then at 1.3250. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.3115 and then at this week’s low of 1.3083. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0. The December Swiss franc closed up 27 points at 1.1399 today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a fresh six-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a bullish “rounding-bottom” reversal pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1600. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 1.1000. First resistance is seen at 1.1450 and then at 1.1500. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.1314 and then at 1.1250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5. The December Australian dollar closed down 19 points at 1.0397 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Prices are still in a steep four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at the September high of 1.0630. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 1.0429 and then at 1.0500. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0327 and then at this week’s low of 1.0229. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0 The December Canadian dollar closed down 85 points at .9852 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh five-week high early on. Prices also scored a big and bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today as the bulls faded a bit. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at 1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at .9700. First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at .9941. First support is seen at today’s low of .9778 and then at .9750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5. The December British pound closed up 18 points at 1.6009 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh six-week high. The bulls have upside near- term technical momentum. A steep three-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6200. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of 1.5621. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6031 and then at 1.6100. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.5948 and then at this week’s low of 1.5890. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0. The December U.S. dollar index closed up 7 points at 76.34 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh six-week low early on. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at 78.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at this week’s low of 76.00. Next resistance lies at this week’s high of 76.77 and then at 77.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 76.13 and then at 76.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0. December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 28/32 at 140 even today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Safe-haven buying flowed back into the bond market today amid fresh EU debt crisis uncertainty. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 137 13/32. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142 even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 140 9/32 and then at 141 even. First support is seen at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0. December U.S. T Notes closed up 25.0 (32nds) at 129.04.0 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at the October low of 127.16.5. First resistance is seen at 129.09.5 and then at 129.16.0. First support is seen at 128.16.0 and then at today’s low of 128.01.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0 GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed lower today on some profit-taking pressure from recent gains and on some trepidation ahead of a European Union leaders meeting on the sovereign debt crisis scheduled for Wednesday. The Dow and S&P index hit 11-week highs this week and the stock index still bulls have some upside near- term technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in place and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the end of the year. It’s been a very good October for the stock market bulls. The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 53.00 at 2,321.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at 2,200.00. First resistance is seen at 2,350.00 and then at last week’s high of 2,388.50. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,316.00 and then at 2,300.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. The S&P 500 futures index closed down 22.50 at 1,224.60. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh 11-week high early on. Prices today also scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at 1,125.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1,254.40 and then at 1,270.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 1,222.50 and then at 1,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. The Dow futures closed down 163 points at 11,662 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above psychological resistance at 12,000. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of 11,231. First resistance in the Dow lies at 11,700 and then at 11,750. First support is seen at today’s low of 11,625 and then at 11,600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5. Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System. http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/ IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature. Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you. Jim Wyckoff
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