Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 25
Oct 26, 2011
Tuesday Evening, October 25-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update
Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim
Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp
Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.
*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.87 at
$122.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and scored a bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar
chart. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $124.45. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the October low of $120.30. First resistance is seen at
$122.50 and then at $123.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $121.70 and then at last week’s low of
$121.05. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
November feeder cattle closed down $1.00 at $141.80 today.
Prices closed near the session low today and closed at a
fresh three-week low close. Bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage but are fading a bit and need
to show fresh power soon. The next upside price objective
for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above
technical resistance at the contract high of $145.90. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at last
week’s low of $141.00. First resistance is seen at $142.50
and then at this week’s high of $143.00. First support is
seen at $141.50 and then at $141.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5
December lean hogs closed down $0.97 at $87.85 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-
week low today. Hog bulls do still have the overall near-
term technical advantage, but are fading. Cash hog market
fundamentals are also fading a bit. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $90.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $86.75. First
resistance is seen at $88.00 and then at today’s high of
$88.67. First support is seen at today’s low of $87.75 and
then at $87.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 1 1/4 cents at
$6.52 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today in
quieter trading. The corn bulls still have the slight near-
term technical advantage. Corn prices are still in a three-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Corn bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at $6.80. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.20.
First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s high
of $6.58 1/2 and then at last week’s high of $6.65 1/2.
First support is seen at this week’s low of $6.46 1/2 and
then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
November soybeans closed down 2 3/4 cents at $12.24 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range again today.
Soybean bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above technical resistance at the October
high of $12.75 3/4 a bushel. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing
prices below psychological support at $12.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $12.36 and then at
$12.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $12.17 1/2
and then at this week’s low of $12.09 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5.
December soybean meal closed down $0.10 at $321.40 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still have the
slight near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above technical resistance at the October high of $330.50.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the October low of $300.90. First resistance comes in at
today’s high of $323.90 and then at $325.50. First support
is seen at today’s low of $317.60 and then at last week’s
low of $314.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
December bean oil closed down 36 points at 51.43 cents
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bean oil
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls
is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 53.92 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
50.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 52.00 cents and
then at today’s high of 52.40 cents. First support is seen
at this week’s low of 51.06 cents and then at last week’s
low of 50.54 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0
December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 5 3/4 cents at $6.36
3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Wheat bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
to push and close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of $6.65 1/4 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below major
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
$6.50 and then at $6.60. First support lies at this week’s
low of $6.30 1/2 and then at $6.25 Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.
December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 1 1/2 cents at $7.33
1/2 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $7.60. The
bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below psychological support at $7.00. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.42 and then at
last week’s high of $7.45. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $7.26 and then at $7.15. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5.
December oats closed down 3 1/2 cents at $3.37 1/2 today.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and bears
are on a level near-term technical playing field. Bears'
next downside price breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.50. First
support lies at today’s low of $3.37 and then at last
week’s low of $3.34. First resistance is seen at $3.40 and
then at today’s high of $3.44. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0
*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 14 points at 26.96 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Sugar
bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of 28.35 cents. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at 26.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 27.30 cents and then at 27.50 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 26.86 cents and then at this week’s
low of 26.48 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
December coffee closed down 1,510 points at 235.70 cents.
Prices closed near the session low today after hitting a
fresh five-week high early on. Prices today scored a big
and bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart and
the bulls quickly faded. The coffee bulls' next upside
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at today’s high of 252.50 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 240.00
cents and then at 243.55 cents. First support is seen at
235.00 cents and then at 232.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.5
December cocoa closed up $22 at $2,649 a ton. Prices closed
near mid-range today. Short covering in a bear market was
featured today. The cocoa bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,700.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $2,523. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $2,674 and then at $2,700. First support is
seen at today’s low of $2,613 and then at $2,600. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.5.
December cotton closed up 172 points at 99.66 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Short covering
and bargain-hunting buying were featured today. Bulls and
bears are back on a level near-term technical playing
field. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at the October high of 104.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is
to push prices below solid technical support at the August
low of 93.72 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
97.57 cents and then at last week’s low of 96.47 cents.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 100.63 cents
and then at 101.42 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
January orange juice closed down 20 points at $1.7395
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today after
hitting a fresh nine-week high early on. FCOJ bulls still
have the solid near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $1.8000. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at $1.6500. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $1.7560 and then at $1.7650. First support
is seen at today’s low of $1.7365 and then at $1.7250.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
November lumber futures closed down $2.80 at $220.70 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next
downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears
is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support
at the contract low of $211.10. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $230.40. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$225.50 and then at $227.40. First support is seen at
today's low of $219.00 and then at $217.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0
*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $47.20 an ounce
at $1,699.70 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today and hit a fresh four-week high on a surge of safe-
haven demand amid fresh US debt crisis uncertainty. Bulls
today gained fresh upside near-term technical momentum to
re-establish a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Prices also pushed right up to strong resistance at
the August spike low of $1,705.40. A push above that level
would likely set off fresh buy stop orders to push prices
even higher. Bulls now have the near-term technical
advantage. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at
$1,750.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below psychological support at $1,600.00.
First resistance is seen at $1,705.40 and then at
$1,725.00. First support is seen at $1,675.00 and then at
$1,650.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
December silver futures closed up $1.431 an ounce at
$33.075 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit a fresh four-week high as the bulls today gained
fresh upside near-term technical momentum to re-establish a
five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The silver
bulls now have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a
close above strong technical resistance at $33.585 an
ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of $29.935. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $33.335 and then at $33.585. Next support
is seen at $32.50 and then at $32.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.0.
December N.Y. copper closed down 330 points 341.60 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and did
hit a fresh four-week high early on. The key “outside
markets” were mostly bearish for copper today, including a
firmer U.S. dollar index and lower U.S. stock market.
Still, a bullish double-bottom reversal pattern may be
forming on the daily bar chart. Copper bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at 370.00 cents. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support 320.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 345.00 cents and then at 350.00
cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 335.80 cents
and then at 330.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.
*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed up $1.92 a barrel at
$93.20 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit
another fresh 11-week high. Crude bulls have gained solid
upside near-term technical momentum this week as prices
have seen a bullish upside “breakout” from what was a well-
defined sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above strong technical
resistance at $98.00 a barrel. The next near-term downside
price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $88.00.
First resistance is seen at $94.00 and then at today’s high
of $94.65. First support is seen at $92.50 and then at
$92.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
December heating oil closed down 5 points at $3.0522 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the September high of
$3.1040. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
producing a close below solid technical support at $2.9000.
First resistance lies at last week’s high of $3.0869 and
then at $3.1040. First support is seen at this week’s low
of $3.0150 and then at $3.000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.
December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 55 points at
$2.6758. Prices closed near the session high today. Bulls
and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of $2.8431. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
$2.5861. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$2.6969 and then at $2.7250. First support is seen at
$2.6500 and then at $2.6250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.
December natural gas closed up 5.6 cents at $3.85 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on short
covering in a bear market. The bears still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage as prices are still
down near the contract low. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the October high of $4.039. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $3.70.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.888 and then
at $4.00. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.775
and then at the contract low of $3.747. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 1.0.
*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 20 points at 1.3920 today. Prices
closed nearer the session high today and hit another fresh
seven-week high. Bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage as prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 1.4000. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at last week’s low of 1.3645. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3954 and
then at 1.4000. Next support is seen at 1.3900 and then at
today’s low of 1.3842. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5
The December Japanese yen closed up 24 points at 1.3182
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
closed at a fresh contract high close. Prices have seen
a bullish upside “breakout” from a sideways trading range
at higher price levels. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
1.3300. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the October low of
1.2912. First resistance is seen at the contract high of
1.3216 and then at 1.3250. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.3115 and then at this week’s low of 1.3083.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.
The December Swiss franc closed up 27 points at 1.1399
today. Prices closed near the session high today and hit a
fresh six-week high. Bears still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. However, a bullish “rounding-bottom”
reversal pattern may be forming on the daily bar chart.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1600. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.1000. First
resistance is seen at 1.1450 and then at 1.1500. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.1314 and then at
1.1250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.
The December Australian dollar closed down 19 points at
1.0397 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today.
Prices are still in a steep four-week-old uptrend on the
daily bar chart. Bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at
the September high of 1.0630. The next downside breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at
this week’s high of 1.0429 and then at 1.0500. Next support
is seen at today’s low of 1.0327 and then at this week’s
low of 1.0229. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0
The December Canadian dollar closed down 85 points at .9852
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh five-week high early on. Prices also scored a big and
bearish “outside day” down on the daily bar chart today as
the bulls faded a bit. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0000. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
.9700. First resistance is seen at .9900 and then at .9941.
First support is seen at today’s low of .9778 and then at
.9750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.
The December British pound closed up 18 points at 1.6009
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
another fresh six-week high. The bulls have upside near-
term technical momentum. A steep three-week-old uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.6200. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at last week’s low of 1.5621. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1.6031 and then at 1.6100. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.5948 and then at this
week’s low of 1.5890. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.
The December U.S. dollar index closed up 7 points at 76.34
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another
fresh six-week low early on. Some near-term chart damage
has occurred recently. Prices are in a three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 78.50. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at this week’s low of 76.00. Next
resistance lies at this week’s high of 76.77 and then at
77.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 76.13 and
then at 76.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.
December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 1 28/32 at 140 even today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and scored a
bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Safe-haven
buying flowed back into the bond market today amid fresh EU
debt crisis uncertainty. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next downside price breakout
objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 137 13/32.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 142
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 140 9/32
and then at 141 even. First support is seen at 139 even and
then at 138 even. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.
December U.S. T Notes closed up 25.0 (32nds) at 129.04.0
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at the
October low of 127.16.5. First resistance is seen at
129.09.5 and then at 129.16.0. First support is seen at
128.16.0 and then at today’s low of 128.01.0. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0
GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today on some profit-taking pressure from recent
gains and on some trepidation ahead of a European Union
leaders meeting on the sovereign debt crisis scheduled for
Wednesday. The Dow and S&P index hit 11-week highs this
week and the stock index still bulls have some upside near-
term technical momentum to suggest that market lows are in
place and that prices can trend sideways to higher into the
end of the year. It’s been a very good October for the
stock market bulls.
The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 53.00 at
2,321.75 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 2,200.00.
First resistance is seen at 2,350.00 and then at last
week’s high of 2,388.50. First support is seen at today’s
low of 2,316.00 and then at 2,300.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.5.
The S&P 500 futures index closed down 22.50 at 1,224.60.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
11-week high early on. Prices today also scored a bearish
“outside day” down on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,125.00. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1,254.40 and then at 1,270.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1,222.50 and then at
1,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
The Dow futures closed down 163 points at 11,662 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above
psychological resistance at 12,000. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 11,231. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 11,700 and then at 11,750.
First support is seen at today’s low of 11,625 and then at
11,600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.
Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.
http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/
IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.
Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.
Jim Wyckoff
