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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 31

Nov 01, 2011

Monday Evening, October 31-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $0.45 at
$118.60 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a
fresh five-week low. Prices also closed at a bearish
monthly low close today. The key “outside markets” were
beaerish for the cattle market today as the U.S. dollar
index was sharply higher and crude oil prices were lower.
The cattle bears have gained the near-term technical
advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $120.50. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $118.00. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $119.15 and then at $119.50. First
support is seen at today’s low of $118.15 and then at
$118.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

November feeder cattle closed down $1.05 at $140.05 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today, hit a fresh
five-week low and closed at a bearish monthly low close.
Bulls have faded badly recently. The next upside price
objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices
above technical resistance at last week’s high high of
$143.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at $138.00. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $140.47 and then at $141.00. First support is seen
at today’s low of $139.85 and then at $139.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December lean hogs closed up $0.80 at $87.47 today. Prices
closed near mid-range and saw short covering and perceived
bargain-hunting buying today. Prices are still in a two-
week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart but were one of
the very few commodity markets that closed on the upside
today. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $89.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $85.00. First resistance is seen at
$88.00 and then at today’s high of $88.40. First support is
seen at $87.00 and then at last week’s low of $86.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed down 5 1/4 cents at
$6.49 3/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the corn
market today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher,
while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were weaker.
The corn bulls have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at the October high of $6.65 1/2. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at $6.20.
First resistance for December corn is seen at today’s high
of $6.55 3/4 and then at $6.60. First support is seen at
$6.45 and then at $6.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

January soybeans closed down 6 1/2 cents at $12.19 1/2 a
bushel today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the soybean market today
as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude
oil and U.S. stock index prices were weaker. Soybean bears
have regained the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
technical resistance at last week’s high of $12.42 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below psychological
support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high
of $12.29 and then at $12.42. First support is seen at
$12.07 1/2 and then at $12.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
4.5.

December soybean meal closed down $0.40 at $317.10 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today but did hit a
fresh three-week low early on. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above technical resistance at the October high of
$330.50. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the October low of $300.90. First resistance
comes in at today’s high of $318.00 and then at $320.00.
First support is seen at $315.00 and then at today’s low of
$312.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December bean oil closed down 55 points at 51.22 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the oil market today as the U.S.
dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and U.S.
stock index prices were weaker. Bean oil bulls are fading.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil
bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 52.50 cents. Bean oil
bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
50.54 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
51.73 cents and then at 52.00 cents. First support is seen
at 51.00 cents and then at today’s low of 50.62 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 16 1/4 cents at
$6.28 1/4 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the wheat
market today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher,
while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices were weaker.
Wheat bears have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close Chicago SRW prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of $6.52 3/4 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below major
psychological support at $6.00. First resistance is seen at
$6.40 and then at today’s high of $6.48. First support lies
at today’s low of $6.19 1/4 and then at $6.10. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 13 cents at $7.25
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bears have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
$7.45. The bears' next downside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below psychological support at
$7.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $7.31
and then at $7.38. First support is seen at last week’s low
of $7.16 and then at $7.10. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0.

December oats closed down 1 3/4 cents at $3.34 1/2 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bears have the
slight near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid chart support at $3.25. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the October high of
$3.47. First support lies at $3.30 and then at today’s low
of $3.28 1/4. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.35 1/2 and then at $3.38. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 32 points at 25.83 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh three-week low. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for the sugar market today as the U.S. dollar index
was sharply higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock index
prices were weaker. Sugar bears have the near-term
technical advantage as a two-week-old downtrend is in place
on the daily bar chart. Sugar bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 27.70 cents.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at 25.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 26.00 cents and then at
today’s high of 26.22 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 25.73 cents and then at 25.50 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December coffee closed down 790 points at 227.25 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh
three-week low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for
the coffee market today as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil and U.S. stock index prices
were weaker. Coffee bears have the near-term technical
advantage and gained fresh downside momentum today. The
coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close
prices above solid technical resistance at 242.50 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the October
low of 219.80 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at
230.00 cents and then at today’s high of 233.45 cents.
First support is seen at today’s low of 225.35 cents and
then at 221.65 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

December cocoa closed down $63 at $2,685 a ton. Prices
closed nearer the session low today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the cocoa market today as the
U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and
U.S. stock index prices were weaker. The cocoa bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,800.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,600. First resistance is seen at $2,700 and then at
today’s high of $2,734. First support is seen at today’s
low of $2,670 and then at $2,650. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

December cotton closed down 208 points at 102.29 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the cotton market today
as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude
oil and U.S. stock index prices were weaker. Cotton bulls
still have the slight near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a
close above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 105.05 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the cotton bears is to push and close prices below
major psychological support at 100.00 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 101.14 cents and then at 100.00
cents. First resistance is seen at 103.00 cents and then at
104.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

January orange juice closed down 135 points at $1.6890
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on more profit-
taking pressure from recent gains. FCOJ bulls still have
the overalll near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $1.7920. The next downside technical
breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close
below solid technical support at $1.6500. First resistance
is seen at $1.7000 and then at today’s high of $1.7210.
First support is seen at $1.6750 and then at today’s low of
$1.6625. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

January lumber futures closed up $1.10 at $240.40 today.
Short covering was featured. The bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the contract low of $229.10. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the October high of $246.00.
First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $242.00 and
then at $246.00. First support is seen at $238.00 and then
at $236.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $22.00 an
ounce at $1,725.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range
today. Profit taking from recent gains was seen. A sharply
higher U.S. dollar index and weaker crude oil prices helped
to pressure gold today. Bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. A five-week-old uptrend is in
place on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside technical
objective is to produce a close above psychological
resistance at $1,800.00. Bears' next near-term downside
price objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $1,636.60. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $1,746.50 and then at last
week’s high of $1,754.00. First support is seen at today’s
low of $1,705.50 and then at $1,700.00. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

December silver futures closed down $0.798 an ounce at
$34.48 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw profit taking. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for silver today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil was lower. The silver bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A
five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart.
Silver bulls' next upside price objective is producing a
close above solid technical resistance at $37.00 an ounce.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of $31.23. First resistance is seen at $35.00 and then
at today’s high of $35.45. Next support is seen at $34.00
and then at $33.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 620 points 364.40 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw profit
taking from recent gains. The key “outside markets” were
bearish for copper today, as the U.S. dollar index was
sharply higher, while crude oil was lower. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage and a bullish
double-bottom reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar
chart. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at 390.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support 350.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 370.00
cents and then at last week’s high of 375.00 cents. First
support is seen at 360.00 cents and then at today’s low of
356.75 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: December crude oil closed down $0.50 a barrel
at $92.82 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and saw
mild profit-taking pressure from recent gains. A sharply
higher U.S. dollar index and weaker stock indexes pressured
crude today. Crude bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next near-term upside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bulls is producing a
close above strong technical resistance at last week’s high
of $94.65 a barrel. The next near-term downside price
breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a
close below solid technical support at $88.00. First
resistance is seen at $94.00 and then at $94.65. First
support is seen at $92.00 and then at today’s low of
$91.36. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December heating oil closed down 155 points at $3.0509
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at the June high of $3.2342.
Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing
a close below solid technical support at $2.9637. First
resistance lies at today’s high of $3.0786 and then at
$3.1000. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.027-
and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 466 points at
$2.5995. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the slight near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $2.7317. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at $2.5000. First
resistance is seen at $2.6250 and then at $2.6500. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.5755 and then at
$2.5500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5.

December natural gas closed up 0.8 cent at $3.931 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
two-week high on tepid short covering in a bear market. The
bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the October high of $4.039. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.70. First resistance is seen
today’s high of $3.978 and then at $4.00. First support is
seen at today’s low of $3.852 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 2.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 291 points at 1.3859 today. Prices
closed near the session low today and were pressured by
Bank of Japan central bank intervention, in which the BOJ
sold yen for U.S. dollars. No significant chart damage
occurred today but the bulls need to recover soon. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at last week’s high of 1.4241. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid chart support at 1.3649. First resistance for the
Euro lies at 1.3900 and then at 1.3970. Next support is
seen at 1.3800 and then at 1.3750. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0

The December Japanese yen closed down 401 points at 1.2809
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and closed at a
bearish monthly low close today after hitting another fresh
contract high early on. Prices today careened to a fresh
nearly three-month low when the Bank of Japan did massive
central bank intervention to weaken the yen. Today’s price
action produced a big and bearish “key reversal” down on
the daily bar chart, which is a clue that a market top is
in place. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1.3000. Bears'
next downside breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at today’s low of 1.2582. First
resistance is seen at 1.2860 and then at 1.2900. First
support is seen at 1.2750 and then at 1.2700. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 194 points at 1.1416
today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bears have
the overall near-term technical advantage. However, a
bullish “rounding-bottom” reversal pattern may be forming
on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at last week’s high of 1.1682. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at last week’s low of 1.1274.
First resistance is seen at 1.1500 and then at 1.1600.
First support is seen at 1.1400 and then at 1.1300.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5.

The December Australian dollar closed down 153 points at
1.0496 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and saw profit taking from recent gains. Prices are still
in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid chart resistance at last week’s high of
1.0687. The next downside breakout objective for the bears
is to produce a close below solid technical support at
1.0300. First resistance is seen at 1.0600 and then at
1.0687. Next support is seen at today’s low of 1.0445 and
then at 1.0400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The December Canadian dollar closed down 20 points at
1.0033 today. Prices closed near mid-range high today on
mild profit taking. Bulls still have the near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
1.0204. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
last week’s low of .9778. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of 1.0097 and then at 1.0150. First support is
seen at 1.0000 and then at today’s low of .9960. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The December British pound closed down 23 points at 1.6087
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit
a fresh seven-week high. Mild profit taking was seen. A
steep four-week-old uptrend is still in place on the daily
bar chart. Bulls have the near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.6200.
Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at last week’s low of
1.5880. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6158
and then at 1.6200. First support is seen at 1.6000 and
then at today’s low of 1.5958. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 141 points at
76.63 today. Prices closed near the session high today and
were supported by short covering following the BOJ
intervention that saw that central bank sell yen for
dollars. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 78.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at last week’s low of 74.86. Next
resistance lies at 76.87 and then at 77.00. First support
is seen at 76.00 and then at 75.50. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 2 25/32 at 139 21/32 today.
Prices closed near the session high today and saw heavy
short covering and bargain hunting buying amid safe-haven
buying, too. The MF Global bankruptcy and fresh EU debt
concerns boosted the bonds today. Prices are still in a
five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s
low of 135 5/32. The next upside technical objective for
the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of 140 13/32 even. First
resistance is seen at 140 even and then at 140 13/32. First
support is seen at 139 even and then at 138 even. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 1 7.5 (32nds) at 129.10.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high and hit a
fresh three-week high today. Bulls regained fresh upside
technical momentum today. A five-week-old downtrend on the
daily bar chart was negated today. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 130.00.0. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 127.06.0.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 129.13.5 and
then at 130.00.0. First support is seen at 129.00.0 and
then at 128.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
solidly lower today. The MF Global bankruptcy and renewed
worries regarding last week’s European Union package on
dealing with its sovereign debt crisis pressured the
indexes today. The stock index bulls still have some upside
near-term technical momentum to suggest prices can trend
sideways to higher into the end of the year. It was a very
good October for the stock market bulls.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 44.25 at
2,352.25 today. Prices closed near the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at the July high of 2,435.50.
The bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid technical support at 2,268.50.
First resistance is seen at 2,375.00 and then at today’s
high of 2,398.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,350.50 and then at 2,329.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 34.40 at 1,246.50.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at 1,300.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid support at 1,150.00. First resistance is seen at
1,260.00 and then at today’s high of 1,280.90. First
support is seen at 1,250.00 and then at 1,237.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

The Dow futures closed down 268 points at 11,900 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The next upside
price objective for the bulls is closing prices above
technical resistance at 12,500. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at 11,500. First resistance in the Dow
lies at 12,000 and then at today’s high of 12,050. First
support is seen at 11,850 and then at 11,800. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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