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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 8

Oct 09, 2012

Monday Evening, October 8-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.10 at
$126.30 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The key “outside markets” were bearish for the cattle
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were weaker. Cattle bears have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $128.00. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of $123.95. First resistance is seen at last
week’s high of $126.90 and then at $127.50. First support
is seen at $126.00 and then at $125.60. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.5

November feeder cattle closed up $0.10 at $146.30 today.
Bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the feeder bulls
is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $148.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $143.80.
First resistance is seen at $147.00 and then at last week’s
high of $147.25. First support is seen at $145.75 and then
at $145.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December lean hogs closed up $0.30 at $76.85 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and did hit a fresh nine-week
high early on today. Hog market bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is
in place on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the hog bulls is to push and close
prices above solid chart resistance at $78.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
prices below solid technical support at $75.00. First
resistance is seen at $77.00 and then at today’s high of
$77.65. First support is seen at today’s low of $76.40 and
then at $75.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were down 6 1/2 cents at
7.41 1/2 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the
session low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the
corn market today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were weaker. The corn bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage, but are
fading again and need to show fresh power soon. Traders are
awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA supply and demand
report. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $7.68 1/2. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.36 1/2. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today’s high of $7.48 and then at
$7.50. First support is seen at $7.40 and then at $7.36
1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were down 1 1/2 cents at $15.50 a bushel
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the soybean market
today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were weaker. Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s
latest USDA supply and demand report. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field. However, a
five-week-old downtrend is still in place on the daily bar
chart. The next near-term upside technical breakout
objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing
November prices above psychological resistance at $16.00 a
bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below major support at
$15.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $15.61
and then at $15.69 1/2. First support is seen at today’s
low of $15.37 1/2 and then at $15.25. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal was up $0.20 at $471.40 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high. Meal
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. However, prices are still in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $491.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$450.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$474.10 and then at $476.80. First support is seen at
today’s low of $465.80 and then at $462.20. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

December bean oil was down 8 points at 51.11 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the bean oil market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was firmer and crude oil prices were
weaker. Bean oil bears have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of 52.65 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 51.55 cents and then
at 51.88 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of
50.85 cents and then at 50.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 4 cents at $8.61 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Traders are
awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA supply and demand
report. Prices remain in a choppy and sideways trading
range at higher price levels, but now at the bottom of that
range. My bias is still that this market has put in a major
top. Wheat bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside breakout
objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above
solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of $8.49 1/4. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $8.67 1/2 and then at $8.75.
First support lies at today’s low of $8.55 and then at
$8.49 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 6 1/2 cents at $8.85 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
today. Trading remains in a choppy and sideways trading
range at higher price levels. Prices are now at the bottom
of that range. The HRW bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $9.33 1/2. The bears' next
downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
below solid technical support at the September low of $8.72
1/2. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.89 and
then at $9.01. First support is seen at today’s low of
$8.78 and then at $8.72 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December oats were up 1/2 cent at $3.67 3/4 today in late
trading. Prices were near mid-range today. Oats bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field.
Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$3.57 3/4. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at $3.80 3/4. First support lies at today’s low of $3.65
1/2 and then at $3.62. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of $3.71 1/4 and then at $3.75. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed down 19 points at 21.35 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. The key “outside
markets” were bearish for the sugar market today, as the
U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices were
weaker. Sugar bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at 22.00
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 20.36 cents. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 21.55 cents and then last week’s high of
21.77 cents. First support is seen at today’s low of 21.21
cents and then at 21.08 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
5.5.

December coffee closed steady at 168.10 cents. Prices
closed near mid-range and hit a fresh four-week low today.
The key “outside markets” were bearish for the coffee
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were weaker. Coffee bears have regained the
near-term technical advantage. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 185.45 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 156.55 cents a pound. First resistance is
seen at 170.00 cents and then at 172.50 cents. First
support is seen at today’s low of 166.35 cents and then at
165.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December cocoa closed up $3 at $2,385 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session high today but did hit a fresh nine-week
low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for the cocoa
market today, as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude
oil prices were weaker. Cocoa prices are in a four-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field. The next upside
price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,500.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$2,300. First resistance is seen at $2,400 and then at
$2,420. First support is seen at today’s low of $2,363 and
then at $2,350. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December cotton closed up 29 points at 71.78 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The key
“outside markets” were bearish for the cotton market today,
as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices
were weaker. Cotton bears still have the near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at 75.00 cents. The next downside
price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push
and close prices below solid technical support at the July
low of 69.40 cents. First resistance is seen at last week’s
high of 72.65 cents and then at 73.00 cents. First support
is seen at 71.00 cents and then at last week’s low of 70.22
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

November orange juice closed down 240 points at $1.1270
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bears
have the overall near-term technical advantage. A bear flag
has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and
closing prices above technical resistance at $1.1800. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ
bears is to produce a close below solid technical support
at $1.1000. First resistance is seen at $1.1400 and then at
today’s high of $1.1500. First support is seen at the
September low of $1.1200 and then at $1.1000. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 3.0.

November lumber futures closed down $1.60 at $274.50 today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field, but the bulls are fading. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of $268.80. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the October high
of $288.00. First resistance is seen at $276.00 and then at
$278.00. First support is seen at $273.50 and then at
$272.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $4.90 an ounce
at $1,775.90 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on
some profit taking after prices Friday hit a seven-month
high. The key “outside markets” were bearish for gold today
as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil prices
were weaker. Gold bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’ next upside
price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the 2012 high of $1,800.90. Bears'
next near-term downside price objective is closing prices
below solid technical support at $1,738.30. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,782.50 and then at
the September high of $1,790.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,768.20 and then at $1,753.20. Wyckoff’s
Market Rating: 7.5

December silver futures closed down $0.557 an ounce at
$34.015 today. Prices closed near mid-range today on profit
taking. The key “outside markets” were in a bearish posture
for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and
crude oil prices were weaker. Silver bulls are still in
overall near-term technical command, but are fading just a
bit and need to show some fresh power soon. Prices are
still in a 2.-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, but
now just barely. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $35.445 an ounce. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at $33.36.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $34.605 and
then at $35.00. Next support is seen at today’s low of
$33.62 and then at $33.36. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 570 points at 372.10 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key
“outside markets” were in a bearish posture for copper
today as the U.S. dollar index was higher and crude oil
prices were weaker. Copper bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart, but now just barely. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of 383.95 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 364.00 cents. First resistance
is seen at 375.00 cents and then at today’s high of 377.00
cents. First support is seen at 370.00 cents and then at
368.05 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $0.30 a barrel
at $89.58 today. Prices closed nearer the session high
today. Prices were pressured by worries about weak demand
from China and the EU, and by a firmer U.S. dollar index.
Bears have the near-term technical advantage as a three-
week-old downtrend is in place on the daily bar chart. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $93.33 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $85.00. First resistance is seen at $90.00 and
then at $91.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$88.21 and then at last week’s low of $87.70. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

November heating oil closed down 51 points at $3.1508
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage amid choppy
trading. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at the
September high of $3.2633. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is producing a close below solid
technical support at $3.0000. First resistance lies at
today’s high of $3.1704 and then at last week’s high of
$3.1898. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.1206
and then at $3.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 531 points at
$2.8996 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Prices Friday hit a six-month high amid problems at U.S.
refineries that have helped drive gasoline futures sharply
higher. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the September low of
$2.7029. First resistance is seen at $2.9500 and then at
the March high of $2.9884. First support is seen at $2.8750
and then at $2.8500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

November natural gas closed up 1.3 cents at $3.409 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls still
have the near-term technical advantage. A bearish pennant
pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at $3.70. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at $3.25. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $3.431 and then at
$3.50. First support is seen at today’s low of $3.327 and
then at $3.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 60 points at 1.2982 today. Prices
closed near mid-range today and saw some profit taking.
The Euro bulls still have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at the September high of 1.3183. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid chart support at 1.2768. First
resistance for the Euro lies at today’s high of 1.3034 and
then at last week’s high of 1.3080. Next support is seen at
today’s low of 1.2945 and then at 1.2900. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 7.0

The December Japanese yen closed up 57 points at 1.2773
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have
the slight overall near-term technical advantage but need
to show more power soon. There is some stiff overhead
resistance that has stalled recent rallies and such appears
to be the case again. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the
September high of 1.2977. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at the September low of 1.2631. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2815 and then at 1.2850. First support is
seen at 1.2750 and then at today’s low of 1.2704. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5.

The December Swiss franc closed down 38 points at 1.0733
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on some profit
taking. The Swissy bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 1.0838. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.0774 and then at
last week’s high of 1.0793. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.0698 and then at 1.0666. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 6.5.

The December Australian dollar closed up 36 points at
1.0144 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
on mild short covering. Prices hit another fresh four-week
low early on today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-
term technical playing field. However, prices have been
trending lower for the past three weeks and bulls have
faded. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0300. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 1.0077. First resistance is seen at 1.0200
and then at 1.0260. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.0089 and then at 1.0077. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The December Canadian dollar closed up 21 points at 1.0219
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and have regained
upside momentum recently. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is producing a close above chart resistance at
the September high of 1.0359. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of 1.0099. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1.0256 and then
at 1.0300. First support is seen at today’s low of 1.0187
and then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The December British pound closed down 108 points at 1.6030
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
four-week low today as the bulls are fading. Prices have
been trending lower for the past three weeks. Bulls do
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 1.6213. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
1.5900. First resistance is seen at 1.6100 and then at
today’s high of 1.6139. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.6016 and then at 1.6000. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 22 points at 79.65
today. Prices closed near mid-range today on short covering
in a bear market. The bears still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a 10-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 80.60. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 78.72. Next
resistance lies at today’s high of 79.80 and then at 80.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of 79.43 and then at
last week’s low of 79.18. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 22/32 at 148 6/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high and saw short
covering and some bargain hunting amid a bond-market-
bullish risk-off trading day in the market place today.
Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field as a 2.5-month-old downtrend line is in place on the
daily bar chart. The next downside price breakout objective
for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 144 15/32. The
next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce
a close above solid technical resistance at the late-
September high of 150 9/32. First resistance is seen at 149
even and then at 149 16/32. First support is seen at
today’s low of 147 10/32 and then at 147 even. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 10.0 (32nds) at 133.07.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw
short covering and bargain hunting. Bulls have the slight
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at the September high of 133.27.0.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
producing a close below solid technical support at
132.08.0. First resistance is seen at 133.10.0 and then at
133.15.5. First support is seen at 133.00.0 and then at
last week’s low of 132.27.5. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
weaker today on some profit taking. Stock index bulls still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. It was a
moderate “risk-off” trading day in the market place Monday.
News the World Bank lowered its forecast for China’s annual
economic growth rate to 7.7% (from 8.2% in an earlier
forecast) did put some general selling pressure into the
raw commodity sector and world stock markets Monday. With
the U.S. government closed for the Columbus Day holiday
Monday there were no economic reports released. U.S.
markets were open as usual, but they were quieter. The Euro
currency fell Monday on some more disappointing economic
data coming out of the European Union. Industrial output in
Germany declined by 0.5% in August. European Union finance
ministers met late Monday in Brussels to discuss their
ongoing debt crisis. On Tuesday German Chancellor Angela
Merkel goes to Athens to discuss Greece’s finance problems.
Spain has yet to formally ask for a fresh bailout package
from the EU, to the consternation of many Euro currency
bulls.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 23.00 at
2,781.25. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing
prices above solid resistance at 2,900.00. The bears' next
downside price breakout objective is closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of 2,742.75.
First resistance is seen at 2,800.00 and then at today’s
high of 2,808.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
2,774.50 and then at 2,762.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 4.80 at 1,450.70.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is closing prices above solid
resistance at the September high of 1,467.50. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,424.50. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of 1,457.00 and then at 1,467.50.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1,448.00 and then
at 1,436.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

The Dow futures closed down 1 point at 13,535. Prices
closed near the session high today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,750. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at Friday’s high of 13,597 and
then at 13,650. First support is seen at today’s low of
13,495 and then at 13,450. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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