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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--October 9

Oct 10, 2012

Tuesday Evening, October 9-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.32 at
$126.72 today. Prices closed near the session low today but
did hit a fresh two-week high early on. Gains were limited
by the stronger U.S. dollar index today. Cattle bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. The bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is to push and close
prices above solid technical resistance at $128.00. The
next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
the September low of $123.95. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $127.17 and then at $127.50. First support
is seen at $126.00 and then at $125.60. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 4.0

November feeder cattle closed up $0.40 at $146.70 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high. Bears still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside
price breakout objective for the feeder bulls is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at
$148.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is to push and close prices below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $143.80. First resistance is
seen at $147.00 and then at last week’s high of $147.25.
First support is seen at today’s low of $146.05 and then at
$145.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December lean hogs closed down $0.07 at $76.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The stronger
U.S. dollar index limited buying interest in hogs today.
Hog market bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. A four-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
hog bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart
resistance at $78.00. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid
technical support at $75.00. First resistance is seen at
$77.00 and then at this week’s high of $77.65. First
support is seen at this week’s low of $76.40 and then at
$75.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 1/4 cent at 7.42
1/4 in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session
low. Gains in the corn market were limited by the strong
U.S. dollar index today. The corn bulls still have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have
faded and need to show fresh power soon. Traders are
awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA supply and demand
report. Corn bulls' next upside price objective is to push
and close prices above solid technical resistance at the
October high of $7.68 1/2. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.36 1/2. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today’s high of $7.48 1/2 and then
at $7.50. First support is seen at $7.40 and then at $7.36
1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November soybeans were up 2 cents at $15.53 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session low.
Gains were limited by the stronger U.S. dollar index today.
Traders are awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA supply
and demand report. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term
technical playing field. However, a five-week-old downtrend
is still in place on the daily bar chart. The next near-
term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean
bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
psychological resistance at $16.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below major support at $15.00. First
resistance is seen at $15.61 and then at today’s high of
$15.74. First support is seen at today’s low of $15.47 and
then at this week’s low of $15.37 1/2. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal was down $0.30 at $472.30 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session low. Meal
bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing
field. However, prices are still in a five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at $491.60. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below solid technical support at
$450.00. First resistance comes in at $475.00 and then at
today’s high of $478.70. First support is seen at $470.00
and then at this week’s low of $465.80. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0

December bean oil was up 36 points at 51.29 cents in late
trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Short covering
in a bear market was featured. Bean oil prices were also
supported today by sharply higher crude oil prices. Bean
oil bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a steep five-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 52.65 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside
technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at 50.00 cents. First
resistance is seen at 51.55 cents and then at today’s high
of 51.98 cents. First support is seen at this week’s low of
50.85 cents and then at 50.50 cents. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 3.0

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 6 1/4 cents at $8.67 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Traders
are awaiting Thursday morning’s latest USDA supply and
demand report. Prices remain in a choppy and sideways
trading range at higher price levels, but now at the bottom
of that range. My bias is still that this market has put in
a major top. Wheat bulls still have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. Wheat bulls’ next upside
breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices
above solid technical resistance at $9.00 a bushel. The
next downside price breakout objective for the wheat
futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of $8.49 1/4. First
resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.73 3/4 and then at
$8.80. First support lies at this week’s low of $8.55 and
then at $8.49 1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 6 1/2 cents at $8.89 1/4 in
late trading today. Prices were near mid-range. Trading
remains in a choppy and sideways trading range at higher
price levels. Prices are now at the bottom of that range.
The HRW bulls still have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Bulls’ next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $9.33 1/2. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $8.72 1/2.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $8.96 and then
at $9.01. First support is seen at this week’s low of $8.78
and then at $8.72 1/2. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December oats were up 7 1/2 cents at $3.78 today in late
trading. Prices were nearer the session high and hit a
fresh two-week high. Oats bulls have regained the near-term
technical advantage. A five-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart was negated today. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $3.58. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at $3.80 3/4. First
support lies at $3.75 and then at $3.70. First resistance
is seen at today’s high of $3.80 1/2 and then at $3.84.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: March sugar closed steady at 21.42 cents today.
Prices closed near the session low today. The stronger U.S.
dollar index today limited buying interest in the sugar
market. Sugar bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage but need to show fresh power soon to keep it.
Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and
close prices above solid technical resistance at 22.00
cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to
push and close prices below solid technical support at this
week’s low of 20.36 cents. First resistance is seen at
21.55 cents and then last week’s high of 21.77 cents. First
support is seen at this week’s low of 21.21 cents and then
at 21.08 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December coffee closed down 200 points at 167.10 cents.
Prices closed near mid-range and hit another fresh four-
week low today. The stronger U.S. dollar index was bearish
for coffee today. Coffee bears have the near-term technical
advantage. The next upside breakout objective for the bulls
is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of 185.45 cents. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of 156.55
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
170.00 cents and then at 172.50 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 164.10 cents and then at 162.50
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December cocoa closed up $25 at $2,406 a ton. Prices closed
nearer the session low today. Short covering from recent
losses was featured today. Cocoa prices are still in a
four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls and
bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The
next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is
to push and close prices above solid technical resistance
at $2,500. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at $2,300. First resistance is seen at
$2,420 and then at today’s high of $2,453. First support is
seen at today’s low of $2,388 and then at this week’s low
of $2,363. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December cotton closed up 6 points at 71.84 cents today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. The stronger U.S.
dollar index limited buying interest in cotton today.
Cotton bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
to produce a close above solid technical resistance at
75.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for
the cotton bears is to push and close prices below solid
technical support at the July low of 69.40 cents. First
resistance is seen at last week’s high of 72.65 cents and
then at 73.00 cents. First support is seen at 71.00 cents
and then at last week’s low of 70.22 cents. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 4.0

November orange juice closed down 50 points at $1.1225
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh
six-week low today. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. A bear flag has formed on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above technical
resistance at $1.1800. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below
solid technical support at $1.1000. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $1.1370 and then at this week’s
high of $1.1500. First support is seen at $1.1100 and then
at $1.1000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

November lumber futures closed down $1.70 at $272.80 today.
Prices closed nearer the session low. Bulls and bears are
on a level near-term technical playing field, but the bulls
are fading. The next downside technical breakout objective
for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the September low of $268.80.
The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is
pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance
at the October high of $288.00. First resistance is seen at
$275.00 and then at $276.00. First support is seen at
$272.00 and then at $270.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down $7.40 an ounce
at $1,768.10 today. Prices closed nearer the session low
today and saw some more profit taking and chart
consolidation after prices last Friday hit a seven-month
high. A stronger U.S. dollar index also prompted selling
pressure in gold today. Gold bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are still in a three-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The gold bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close
above solid technical resistance at the 2012 high of
$1,800.90. Bears' next near-term downside price objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at
$1,738.30. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of
$1,782.50 and then at the September high of $1,790.00.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1,762.00 and then
at $1,753.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 7.5

December silver futures closed down $0.012 an ounce at
$34.005 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. A
stronger U.S. dollar limited the upside in silver today.
Silver bulls are still in overall near-term technical
command, but have faded just a bit and need to show some
fresh power soon. Prices are still in a 2.5-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart, but just barely. Bulls’
next upside price breakout objective is closing prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$35.445 an ounce. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at $33.36. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of $34.26 and then at this week’s high of
$34.605. Next support is seen at today’s low of $33.57 and
then at $33.36. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 5 points at 371.85 cents
today. Prices closed nearer the session low again today. A
stronger U.S. dollar index limited gains in copper today.
Copper bulls have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices are still in a nine-week-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart, but just barely. Copper bulls' next
upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
383.95 cents. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid technical
support at 364.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 375.00
cents and then at this week’s high of 377.00 cents. First
support is seen at 370.00 cents and then at 368.05 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed up $2.91 a barrel at
$92.23 today. Prices closed nearer the session high again
today. Some fresh tensions in the Middle East helped drive
crude oil prices up today. Bulls and bears are back on a
level near-term technical playing field. A three-week-old
downtrend on the daily bar chart was negated today. The
next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical
resistance at last week’s high of $93.33 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of $87.70. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $92.91 and then at $93.33. First
support is seen at $91.00 and then at $90.00. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed up 575 points at $3.2018 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh
three-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term
technical advantage. The bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at the September high of $3.2633. Bears' next
downside price breakout objective is producing a close
below solid technical support at the September low of
$3.0227. First resistance lies at today’s high of $3.2156
and then at $3.2500. First support is seen at $3.1750 and
then at $3.1500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed up 685 points at
$2.9611 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today
and hit another fresh six-month high amid problems at U.S.
refineries that have helped drive gasoline futures sharply
higher. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$3.0000. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is
closing prices below solid support at the September low of
$2.7029. First resistance is seen at the March high of
$2.9884 and then at $3.0000. First support is seen at
$2.9500 and then at $2.9000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

November natural gas closed up 6.8 cents at $3.47 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the
near-term technical advantage. A bullish pennant pattern
has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at $3.70. The next downside
price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices
below solid technical support at $3.25. First resistance is
seen at today’s high of $3.515 and then at last week’s high
of $3.546. First support is seen at $3.40 and then at
today’s low of $3.346. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed down 104 points at 1.2880 today. Prices
closed nearer the session low today and saw more profit
taking. The Euro bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are still in a 2.5-month-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart, but the bulls need to show
fresh power soon to keep it in place. Euro bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the September
high of 1.3183. The next downside price breakout objective
for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support
at 1.2768. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.2050 and
then at 1.3000. Next support is seen at today’s low of
1.2864 and then at last week’s low of 1.2813. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 6.5

The December Japanese yen closed down 8 points at 1.2788
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls
still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage
but need to fresh more power soon. There is some stiff
overhead resistance that has stalled recent rallies and
such appears to be the case again. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance
at the September high of 1.2977. Bears' next downside
breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical
support at the September low of 1.2631. First resistance is
seen at this week’s high of 1.2815 and then at 1.2850.
First support is seen at today’s low of 1.2757 and then at
this week’s low of 1.2704. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December Swiss franc closed down 94 points at 1.0636
today. Prices closed near the session low today on more
profit taking. The Swissy bulls still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at the September high of 1.0838. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at 1.0500. First
resistance is seen at 1.0675 and then at 1.0700. First
support is seen at today’s low of 1.0630 and then at last
week’s low of 1.0609. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 16 points at
1.0144 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices
hit a four-week low Monday. Bulls and bears are on a level
near-term technical playing field. However, prices have
been trending lower for the past three weeks and bulls have
faded. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0300. The
next downside breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at the
September low of 1.0077. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.0189 and then at 1.0213. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.0118 and then at this week’s low
of 1.0089. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

The December Canadian dollar closed down 29 points at
1.0205 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is producing a close above
chart resistance at the September high of 1.0359. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
1.0099. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of
1.0256 and then at 1.0300. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0180 and then at 1.0150. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
6.5.

The December British pound closed down 35 points at 1.5991
today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit another
fresh four-week low today as the bulls are fading badly.
Prices have been trending lower for the past three weeks.
Bulls do still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
last week’s high of 1.6213. Bears' next downside technical
breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at
1.5900. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 1.6041
and then at 1.6100. First support is seen at today’s low of
1.5972 and then at 1.5900. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 48 points at 80.11
today. Prices closed near the session high today on more
short covering and on fresh safe-haven buying. The bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are still in a 10-week-old downtrend on the daily
bar chart, but now just barely. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical
resistance at 80.60. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid
technical support at the September low of 78.72. Next
resistance lies at last week’s high of 80.25 and then at
80.60. First support is seen at today’s low of 79.57 and
then at this week’s low of 79.43. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
3.5.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed down 4/32 at 148 4/32 today.
Prices closed near mid-range. Bulls and bears are on a
level near-term technical playing field as a 2.5-month-old
downtrend line is in place on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 144 15/32. The next upside technical
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the late- September high of 150
9/32. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 148 14/32
and then at 149 even. First support is seen at today’s low
of 147 21/32 and then at this week’s low of 147 10/32.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed down 5.5 (32nds) at 133.03.0
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
slight overall near-term technical advantage. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid resistance at the September high of
133.27.0. The next downside price breakout objective for
the bears is producing a close below solid technical
support at 132.08.0. First resistance is seen at today’s
high of 133.11.0 and then at 133.15.5. First support is
seen at 133.00.0 and then at last week’s low of 132.27.5.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
lower today. Stock index bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. The market place saw a “risk-off”
move on Tuesday, in part on reports the International
Monetary Fund cut its 2012 world annual economic growth
rate to 3.3% from a 3.5% growth rate the IMF forecast in
July. The IMF also cut the 2013 world growth rate from 3.9%
to 3.6%. The IMF also gave a downbeat assessment of
European Union countries’ ability to meet budget-deficit
targets. The IMF, which is meeting in Tokyo, also warned
the U.S. about effectively dealing with its upcoming
“fiscal cliff.” Tensions in the Middle East have also
ratcheted up a notch as Syria and Turkey are exchanging
artillery fire on their borders. Also, Iran’s president
said he is very alarmed by his sanction-strapped country’s
inability to meet its budget. Overnight news saw the
Chinese central bank inject fresh liquidity into China’s
financial system ($41 billion) via a daily operation, in an
effort to stimulate economic growth. Asian stocks rallied
on the China news. Meantime, European Union finance
ministers are meeting in Luxembourg Tuesday to work on a
plan for EU bank supervision. Reports said little progress
is being made. Spain has yet to ask for formal EU bailout
assistance, even though European Central Bank president
Draghi said Tuesday the ECB is ready to implement its bond
buying program should Spain as for assistance. German
Chancellor Angela Merkel arrives in Greece Tuesday to meet
with Greek leadership on their debt crisis. The Greek
public is not in a mood for further austerity measures and
there was more protesting in the streets of Athens Tuesday.
The Euro currency is under more selling pressure Tuesday on
these latest developments.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 40.00 at
2,737.50. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a
fresh seven-week low today. Bulls are fading. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the September high of 2,871.75. The
bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at the August low of
2,600.00. First resistance is seen at 2,750.00 and then at
2,775.00. First support is seen at today’s low of 2,730.00
and then at 2,725.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 14.30 at 1,435.50.
Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is closing prices above
solid resistance at the September high of 1,467.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid support at 1,424.50. First
resistance is seen at 1,450.00 and then at this week’s high
of 1,457.00. First support is seen at 1,424.50 and then at
1,415.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

The Dow futures closed down 89 points at 13,412. Prices
closed near the session low today. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,750. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at 13,450 and then at 13,500.
First support is seen at today’s low of 13,400 and then at
last week’s low of 13,355. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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