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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--September 19

Sep 20, 2012

Wednesday Evening, September 19-Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets
Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy
hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp

Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant
developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed up $0.22 at
$129.10 today. Prices closed near the session high today on
a corrective bounce and short covering. The big drop in
crude oil prices did limit the upside in cattle futures
today. Cattle bulls have the slight overall near-term
technical advantage. Prices are in a choppy, nearly three-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The bulls' next
upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of
$131.15. The next downside technical breakout objective for
the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at the August low of $126.72. First
resistance is seen at $129.50 and then at $130.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of $128.40 and then at this
week’s low of $128.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November feeder cattle closed down $0.27 at $148.55 today.
Prices closed near the session high. Feeder cattle bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a gentle two-month-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the
feeder bulls is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at $150.00. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is to push and close
prices below solid technical support at $146.00. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $149.52 and then
at $150.00. First support is seen at $148.00 and then at
today’s low of $147.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December lean hogs closed up $0.52 at $74.72 today. Prices
closed near the session high and hit another fresh four-
week high today. Hog market bears still have the overall
near-term technical advantage. However, recent good upside
price action does hint that a market bottom is in place.
The next upside price breakout objective for the hog bulls
is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at
$75.15. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at
$72.50. First resistance is seen at $75.10 and then at
$75.50. First support is seen at $74.00 and then at $73.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures were up 13 cents at 7.53
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high
on some short covering and perceived bargain hunting.
Prices Tuesday hit a two-month low. The corn bulls have
faded recently. The corn bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Prices have been trending lower
for the past five weeks. Corn bulls' next upside price
objective is to push and close prices above solid technical
resistance at $7.89 1/2. The next downside price breakout
objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $7.25. First resistance for
December corn is seen at today’s high of $7.59 1/4 and then
at $7.65. First support is seen at $7.47 and then at this
week’s low of $7.39. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

November soybeans were up 29 cents at $16.69 a bushel in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and
saw short covering and bargain hunting after prices Tuesday
hit a four-week low. Soybean bulls have the overall near-
term technical advantage but have faded recently. The next
near-term upside technical breakout objective for the
soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above
psychological resistance at $17.00 a bushel. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing
and closing prices below psychological support at $16.00.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of $16.75 3/4 and
then at $16.85. First support is seen at $16.50 and then at
today’s low of $16.43. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December soybean meal was up $9.10 at $501.10 in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high and saw
some short covering and bargain hunting after prices
hit a four-week low on Tuesday. The meal bulls have faded
recently. Meal bulls still have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at this week’s high of $524.50. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at
$480.00. First resistance comes in at today’s high of
$505.00 and then at $510.00. First support is seen at
$495.00 and then at today’s low of $492.90. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

December bean oil was up 71 points at 56.04 cents in late
trading today. Prices were nearer the session high on short
covering and bargain hunting. Bean oil bulls have faded
recently. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 57.80 cents.
Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices below solid
technical support at 54.00 cents. First resistance is seen
at 56.25 cents and then at 56.50 cents. First support is
seen at 55.68 cents and then at today’s low of 55.23 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

December Chicago SRW wheat was up 15 3/4 cents at $8.79 1/4
in late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
Short covering and bargain hunting were featured today
after prices hit a four-week low on Tuesday. Trading
remains choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Wheat
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Wheat
bulls’ next upside breakout objective is to push and close
Chicago SRW prices above psychological resistance at $9.00
a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for
the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of $8.57 1/4.
First resistance is seen at $8.88 and then at $9.00. First
support lies at this week’s low of $8.62 and then at $8.57
1/4. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

December K.C. HRW wheat was up 15 1/2 cents at $9.04 1/2 in
late trading today. Prices were nearer the session high.
The bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage
amid choppy trading. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is pushing and closing prices above solid
technical resistance at $9.25. The bears' next downside
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of $8.74 1/4.
First resistance is seen at $9.11 3/4 and then at $9.20.
First support is seen at today’s low of $8.90 and then at
this week’s low of $8.84. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5

December oats were up 1 3/4 cents at $3.75 3/4 today in
late trading. Prices were nearer the session high. Prices
Tuesday saw a bearish downside “breakout” from a choppy and
sideways trading range at higher price levels. Oats bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
have faded badly this week. Bears' next downside price
breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below
solid technical support at $3.57 3/4. Bulls' next upside
price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices
above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of
$3.95 3/4. First support lies at today’s low of $3.71 and
then at $3.65. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$3.77 1/2 and then at $3.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed down 33 points at 19.11
cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today. The sharp drop in crude oil prices spilled over into
selling pressure in sugar today. Sugar bears have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
downside momentum this week. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid
technical resistance at 20.39 cents. Bears' next downside
price breakout objective is to push and close prices below
solid technical support at the September low of 18.81
cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 19.51
cents and then at 19.75 cents. First support is seen at
today’s low of 18.93 cents and then at 18.81 cents.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.5.

December coffee closed down 280 points at 174.70 cents.
Prices closed nearer the session low today. The sharp drop
in crude oil prices spilled over into selling pressure in
coffee today. Coffee bulls and bears are back on a level
near-term technical playing field. The next upside breakout
objective for the bulls is to close prices above solid
technical resistance at last week’s high of 183.70 cents.
The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 169.10
cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 177.50 cents and
then at today’s high of 179.10 cents. First support is seen
at this week’s low of 171.65 cents and then at 170.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

December cocoa closed up $27 at $2,559 a ton. Prices closed
near the session high and saw some short covering and
bargain hunting. Cocoa bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. The next upside price breakout
objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices
above solid technical resistance at the September high of
$2,707. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical
support at $2,500. First resistance is seen at $2,572 and
then at $2,600. First support is seen at this week’s low of
$2,519 and then at $2,500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0

December cotton closed up 39 points at 76.41 cents today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today. The sharp drop
in crude oil prices limited buying interest in cotton
today. Cotton bulls have the slight near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a gentle 3.5-month old uptrend on
the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout
objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid
technical resistance at the August high of 77.49 cents. The
next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears
is to push and close prices below solid technical support
at 71.59 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 76.77 cents and then at 77.49 cents. First support
is seen at today’s low of 75.56 cents and then at 75.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

November orange juice closed up 30 points at $1.2680 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Gains in FCOJ were
limited by the big drop in crude oil prices today. FCOJ
bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Traders will continue to watch for any fresh storms brewing
in the Atlantic. The next upside price breakout objective
for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above
technical resistance at $1.3500. The next downside
technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at $1.2000.
First resistance is seen at $1.2890 and then at $1.3030.
First support is seen at today’s low of $1.2510 and then at
$1.2400. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

November lumber futures closed up $1.00 at $274.10 today.
Prices closed near mid-range and saw tepid short covering
in a bear market. Bears still have the near-term technical
advantage. Prices are in a steep five-week-old downtrend on
the daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout
objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing
prices below solid technical support at $260.00. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing
and closing prices above solid technical resistance at
$287.50. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$275.60 and then at $277.50. First support is seen at this
week’s low of $272.60 and then at last week’s low of
$270.60. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

*. METALS: December gold futures closed up $1.10 an ounce
at $1,772.40 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and
did hit a fresh 6.5-month high early on. Gains in gold were
limited by another sharp drop in crude oil prices today.
Gold is also this week seeing some profit taking and chart
consolidation. The gold market bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. The gold bulls’ next
upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above
solid technical resistance at the 2012 high of $1,800.90.
Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing
prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of
$1,720.00. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
$1,781.80 and then at $1,790.00. First support is seen at
today’s low of $1,764.20 and then at this week’s low of
$1,753.20. Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0

December silver futures closed down $0.078 an ounce at
$34.635 today. Prices closed near mid-range again today and
saw mild profit taking after hitting a 6.5-month high of
$35.10 on Tuesday. Silver bulls are in still in firm near-
term technical command. Prices are in a seven-week-old
uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical
resistance at $36.00 an ounce. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at last week’s low of $32.51. First
resistance is seen at this week’s high of $35.10 and then
at $35.50. Next support is seen at today’s low of $34.32
and then at $34.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

December N.Y. copper closed up 170 points at 380.40 cents
today. Prices closed near mid-range today and did hit a
fresh 4.5-month high early on today. Copper bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a
seven-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Copper
bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and
closing prices above solid technical resistance at 386.45
cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid technical support at
364.00 cents. First resistance is seen at today’s high of
383.95 cents and then at 385.00 cents. First support is
seen at today’s low of 378.30 cents and then at 375.00
cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

*. ENERGIES: November crude oil closed down $3.36 a barrel
at $92.26 today. Prices closed nearer the session low again
today and hit a fresh six-week low. Heavy profit taking and
technical selling were featured today. A bearish DOE weekly
energy stocks report also provided selling pressure. The
bulls have faded badly this week as a 2.5-month-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart was negated today. Bulls and bears
are now back on a level near-term technical playing field.
The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the
crude oil bulls is producing a close above major
psychological resistance at $100.00 a barrel. The next
near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude
oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at $90.00. First resistance is seen at $93.00 and
then at $94.00. First support is seen at today’s low of
$91.55 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

November heating oil closed down 847 points at $3.0417
today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a
fresh six-week low. Bulls have faded badly this week. A 10-
week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated
this week. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective
is closing prices above solid technical resistance at last
week’s high of $3.2633. Bears' next downside price breakout
objective is producing a close below solid technical
support at $2.9500. First resistance lies at $3.0750 and
then at $3.1000. First support is seen at today’s low of
$3.0246 and then at $3.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 858 points at
$2.7234 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today
and hit a fresh six-week low. A 2.5-month-old uptrend on
the daily bar chart has been negated this week. The next
upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing
prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high
of $3.9527. Bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid support at $2.6100. First
resistance is seen at $2.7500 and then at $2.7750. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.7029 and then at
$2.6750. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November natural gas closed up 0.3 cents at $2.964 today.
Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have faded and
are on a level near-term technical playing field with the
bears. The next upside price breakout objective for the
bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at
the September high of $3.199. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at the August low of $2.79. First
resistance is seen at $3.00 and then at $3.05. First
support is seen at today’s low of $2.928 and then at $2.90.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro
currency closed up 22 points at 1.3070 today. Prices closed
nearer the session high today. The Euro bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a two-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing
prices above solid technical resistance at the May high of
1.3300. The next downside price breakout objective for the
bears is closing prices below solid chart support at last
week’s low of 1.2768. First resistance for the Euro lies at
today’s high of 1.3097 and then at 1.3130. Next support is
seen at today’s low of 1.3004 and then at 1.2948. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 7.0

The December Japanese yen closed up 82 points at 1.2771
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and
scored a big and bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar
chart, in the wake of the BOJ stimulus package. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and regained
upside momentum today. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at last
week’s high of 1.2977. Bears' next downside breakout
objective is closing prices below solid technical support
at today’s low of 1.2631. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 1.2788 and then at this week’s high of
1.2802. First support is seen at 1.2750 and then at 1.2700.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5.

The December Swiss franc closed up 21 points at 1.0795
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Prices Friday
hit a three-month high. The Swissy bulls have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a two-
month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside
price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices
above solid resistance at 1.0900. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0500. First resistance is seen
at last today’s high of 1.0816 and then at week’s high of
1.0838 and then at 1.0850. First support is seen at today’s
low of 1.0760 and then at 1.0720. Wyckoff's Market Rating:
7.5.

The December Australian dollar closed up 55 points at
1.0411 today. Prices closed near the session high today.
Prices last week hit a contract high. Bulls have the solid
near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price
breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart
resistance at 1.0600. The next downside breakout objective
for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical
support at last week’s low of 1.0234. First resistance is
seen at 1.0450 and then at this week’s high of 1.0474. Next
support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0328 and then at
1.0300. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.5

The December Canadian dollar closed up 12 points at 1.0246
today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in
a three-month-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls'
next upside price breakout objective is producing a close
above chart resistance at 1.0400. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below
solid technical support at 1.0140. First resistance is seen
at today’s high of 1.0262 and then at this week’s high of
1.0294. First support is seen at this week’s low of 1.0218
and then at 1.0200. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The December British pound closed down 15 points at 1.6220
today. Prices closed near mid-range again today. Prices
Monday hit a 13-month high. Bulls have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a nine-week-
old uptrend on the daily chart. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid technical resistance at 1.6400. Bears' next downside
technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid
support at 1.6000. First resistance is seen at this week’s
high of 1.6268 and then at 1.6300. First support is seen at
today’s low of 1.6179 and then at 1.6138. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 8.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed down 21 points at
79.13 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today.
The bears have the solid near-term technical advantage.
Prices are in a two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to
close prices above solid technical resistance at 80.60. The
next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to
produce a close below solid technical support at 78.00.
Next resistance lies at today’s high of 79.48 and then at
79.64. First support is seen at 79.03 and then at last
week’s low of 78.72. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 17/32 at 146 17/32 today.
Prices closed nearer the session high today on more short
covering after hitting a fresh four-month low on Monday.
Bulls have faded recently. Prices are still in a choppy
two-month-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next
downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is
closing prices below solid technical support at 143 even.
The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to
produce a close above solid technical resistance at 148
even. First resistance is seen at today’s high of 146 28/32
and then at 147 16/32. First support is seen at 146 even
and then at today’s low of 145 19/32. Wyckoff's Market
Rating: 5.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 6.0 (32nds) at 132.12.5
today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. More
short covering was featured. Bulls have the slight overall
near-term technical advantage. The next upside price
breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above
solid resistance at 133.26.5. The next downside price
breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below
solid technical support at the August low of 131.02.5.
First resistance is seen at today’s high of 132.18.0 and
then at 132.24.0. First support is seen at today’s low of
132.02.0 and then at last week’s low of 131.23.5. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 5.5

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed
narrowly mixed today in quieter trading. Stock index bulls
still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.
The Bank of Japan overnight joined the crowd of central
banks further easing their monetary policies, as the BOJ
announced an aggressive monetary stimulus program amid what
it says is a global economic slowdown.  The BOJ move
provided an early boost to many raw commodity markets
Wednesday, including the precious metals. Asian stock
markets also rose on the BOJ news. Meantime, a Chinese
finance ministry researcher said the risks for inflation in
China exceed the need for more economic stimulus. There is
a slew of fresh economic data coming out of China on
Thursday. The market place worries the China economic data
may show significant weakness. The Chinese economic data
Thursday looks to be the most important data of the week
for the market place.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed up 5.75 at 2,855.75.
Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another fresh
11-plus year high. Bulls' next upside price breakout
objective is closing prices above solid resistance at
2,900.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective
is closing prices below solid technical support at the
September low of 2,742.75. First resistance is seen at
today’s high of 2,866.25 and then at 2,875.00. First
support is seen at today’s low of 2,844.75 and then at
2,825.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5

The S&P 500 futures index closed up 0.30 at 1,453.20.
Prices closed nearer the session low today in more quiet
trading. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is
closing prices above solid resistance at 1,500.00. The next
downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing
prices below solid support at 1,395.40. First resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 1,467.50 and then at 1,475.00.
First support is seen at 1,440.00 and then at 1,428.50.
Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The Dow futures closed down 4 points at 13,495. Prices
closed near the session low. The next upside price
objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid
technical resistance at 13,750. The next downside price
objective for the bears is closing prices below solid
technical support at the September low of 12,965. First
resistance in the Dow lies at today’s high of 13,555 and
then at last week’s high of 13,570. First support is seen
at this week’s low of 13,450 and then at 13,400. Wyckoff's
Market Rating: 8.0.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and
for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage
any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It
is my goal to point out to you potential trading
opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when
and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine
the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I
discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission
(CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%):
1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for
everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS.
Before you invest any money in futures or options
contracts, you should consider your financial experience,
goals and financial resources, and know how much you can
afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a
broker. You should understand commodity futures and options
contracts and your obligations in entering into those
contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and
other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk
disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff
 

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