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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Afternoon Markets Report--September 19

Sep 20, 2011

Monday Evening, September 19--Jim Wyckoff's Daily Markets Update

Questions? Just email me at jim@jimwyckoff.com . I enjoy hearing from my readers worldwide.--Jim

Click below for "Today’s Hot Market" item on my website.

 


http://www.jimwyckoff.com/hotmarket/hotmarket.asp


Dear Valued Subscriber: Following are today's significant developments in the U.S. futures markets.

*. LIVESTOCK: December live cattle closed down $1.00 at $117.95 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-week low. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for cattle today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. The cattle bulls have faded and need to show fresh power soon. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $121.22. The next downside technical breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of $115.35. First resistance is seen at today's high of $118.55 and then at $119.00. First support is seen at today's low of $117.40 and then at $117.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

November feeder cattle closed down $0.75 at $138.55 today. Prices closed near mid-range today. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price objective for the feeder bulls is to push and close prices above technical resistance at the August high of $141.70. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to push and close prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $135.82. First resistance is seen at today's high of $139.10 and then at $139.60. First support is seen at today's low of $137.90 and then at $137.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December lean hogs closed down $0.90 at $81.82 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh two-week low. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for hogs today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. Hog bulls have quickly faded again. Still, the September low of $80.55 is very strong support. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to push and close prices above solid chart resistance at $84.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing prices below solid technical support at $80.55. First resistance is seen at $82.50 and then at today's high of $82.85. First support is seen at today's low of $81.20 and then at $80.55. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

*. GRAINS: December corn futures closed up 1/4 cent at $6.92 1/4 today. Prices closed near the session high today after hitting a fresh five-week low early on. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for corn today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. While corn bulls faded badly recently and need to show more power soon, today's high-range close amid the bearish outside markets was a positive sign for the bulls. Some near-term chart damage has been inflicted recently. Corn bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $7.25. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at today's low of $6.76 1/2. First resistance for December corn is seen at $7.00 and then at $7.05. First support is seen at $6.85 and then at $6.80. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

November soybeans closed down 19 1/2 cents at $13.36 a bushel today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh five-week low. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for soybeans today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. Near-term chart damage has occurred recently. The next near-term upside technical breakout objective for the soybean bulls is pushing and closing November prices above solid technical resistance at $13.75 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below major psychological support at $13.00. First resistance is seen at $13.50 and then at today's high of $13.57 1/2. First support is seen at today's low of $13.26 and then at $13.15. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December soybean meal closed down $4.60 at $348.50 today. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh five-week low. Bulls have faded badly and near-term technical damage has been inflicted. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is to produce a close above technical resistance at $360.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $341.30. First resistance comes in at $350.00 and then at today's high of $353.00. First support is seen at today's low of $345.90 and then at $341.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

December bean oil closed down 102 points at 55.84 cents today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh four-week low. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for bean oil today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. Bean oil bears have the near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bean oil bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 57.50 cents. Bean oil bears' next downside technical price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at 54.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 56.00 cents and then at 55.30 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 55.46 cents and then at 55.25 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December Chicago SRW wheat closed down 15 1/4 cents at $6.73 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit a fresh nine-week low. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for wheat today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. Wheat bears have the near-term technical advantage. However, the wheat market is still short-term oversold and due for at least a corrective bounce soon. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close Chicago SRW prices above psychological resistance at $7.00 a bushel. The next downside price breakout objective for the wheat futures bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $6.39. First resistance is seen at $6.80 and then at today's high of $6.91 1/4. First support lies at today's low of $6.67 and then at $6.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December K.C. HRW wheat closed down 16 cents at $7.68 1/4 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh nine-week low. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above psychological resistance at $8.00. The bears' next downside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $7.30 1/2. First resistance is seen at today's high of $7.75 and then at $7.82 1/2. First support is seen at today's low of $7.60 3/4 and then at $7.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

December oats closed steady at $3.45 1/2 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. A bearish pennant pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. Bears have the near-term technical advantage. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices below solid chart support at the July low of $3.33. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $3.65. First support lies at today's low of $3.40 and then at last week's low of $3.38. First resistance is seen at last week's high of $3.49 and then at $3.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. SOFTS: October sugar closed up 29 points at 27.81 cents today. Prices closed near mid-range today after hitting a fresh five-week low early on. Friday's sharp losses did produce some fresh near-term chart damage. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 30.21 cents. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at the August low of 26.38 cents. First resistance is seen at today's high of 28.07 cents and then at 28.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 27.40 cents and then at 27.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0

December coffee closed up 190 points at 262.30 cents. Prices closed nearer the session high today and saw short covering from recent selling pressure. Prices Friday hit a four-week low. Some near-term chart damage has occurred recently. The coffee bulls' next upside breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 274.75 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 250.00 cents a pound. First resistance is seen at 265.00 cents and then at 267.50 cents. First support is seen at 260.00 cents and then at last week's low of 255.10 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.0

December cocoa closed down $71 at $2,721 a ton. Prices closed nearer the session low today and hit another fresh 11.5-month low. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for cocoa today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,900. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $2,600. First resistance is seen at $2,750 and then at today's high of $2,781. First support is seen at today's low of $2,691 and then at $2,675. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

December cotton closed down the 500-point limit at 105.52 cents today. Prices hit a fresh two-week low today as the bulls faded. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for cotton today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the September high of 115.47 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the cotton bears is to push prices below solid technical support at 101.74 cents. First support is seen at 105.00 and then at 102.50 cents. First resistance is seen at 107.50 cents and then at 110.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

November orange juice closed up 75 points at $1.6350 today. Prices closed near the session low today. Bulls and bears are presently on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the FCOJ bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $1.7090. The next downside technical breakout objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at last week's low of $1.5905. First resistance is seen at $1.6500 and then at $1.6775. First support is seen at $1.6250 and then at last week's low of $1.6100. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

November lumber futures closed down $3.40 at $241.20 today. Prices closed near the session high today. The bears have regained solid downside technical momentum as a bearish V-Top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical breakout objective for the lumber bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at $230.00. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $250.00. First resistance is seen at $242.50 and then at $245.00. First support is seen at today's low of $239.80 and then at $237.50. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. METALS: December gold futures closed down 35.80 an ounce at $1,778.90 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The key "outside markets" were bearish for gold today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher while crude oil prices were sharply lower. Trading has turned very choppy. This type of "backing and filling" action on the charts is not surprising. No chart damage occurred today, but the bulls do not want to see good follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday that would likely produce some near-term technical damage and raise the specter of a bearish double-top reversal pattern forming on the daily bar chart. At present, the gold market bulls still have the overall technical advantage. Bulls' next upside technical objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $1,865.20. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of $1,765.40. First resistance is seen at $1,800.00 and then at 1,817.60. First support is seen at today's low of $1,771.00 and then at $1,765.40. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 7.0.

December silver futures closed down $1.646 an ounce at $39.18 today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh four-week low. The silver bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but did fade again today and do not want to see follow-through selling pressure on Tuesday that would produce some fresh chart damage. The key "outside markets" were bearish for silver today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher while crude oil prices were sharply lower. Bulls' next upside price objective is producing a close above strong technical resistance at last week's high of $41.60 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $38.81. First resistance is seen at $39.50 and then at $40.00. Next support is seen at $39.00 and then at $38.81. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

December N.Y. copper closed down 1,545 points 377.70 cents today. Prices closed near the session low today and hit a fresh 9.5-month low. The key "outside markets" were bearish for copper today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher while crude oil and stock index futures prices were sharply lower. Copper bears now have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Copper bulls' next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 400.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at November 2010 low of 355.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 380.00 cents and then at 382.50 cents. First support is seen at today's low of 376.55 cents and then at 375.00 cents. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

*. ENERGIES: October crude oil closed down $2.08 a barrel at $85.88 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today as the bulls have faded. A five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart has been at least temporarily negated. The key "outside markets" were fully bearish for crude today as the U.S. dollar index was sharply higher, while U.S. stock index futures prices were lower. The next near-term upside price breakout objective for the oil bulls is producing a close above solid technical resistance at last week's high of $90.52 a barrel. The next near-term downside price breakout objective for the crude oil bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the September low of $83.20. First resistance is seen at $87.00 and then at $87.50. First support is seen at today's low of $84.79 and then at $84.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

October heating oil closed down 670 points at $2.9425 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the late-August high of $3.0591. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is producing a close below solid technical support at last week's low of $2.9013. First resistance lies at $2.9750 and then at $3.0000. First support is seen at today's low of $2.9300 and then at $2.9013. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

October (RBOB) unleaded gasoline closed down 817 points at $2.7024. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Bulls and bears are on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the September high of $2.9186. Bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at $2.6500. First resistance is seen at $2.7500 and then at today's high of $2.7824. First support is seen at last week's low of $2.6844 and then at $2.6500. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0.

October natural gas closed up 2.5 cents at $3.836 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today after hitting a fresh contract low early on. Tepid short covering in a bear market was featured today.

Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $4.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $3.50. First resistance is seen at $3.90 and then at $3.95. First support is seen at today's contract low of $3.743 and then at $3.70. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 1.0.

*.STOCKS, FINANCIALS, CURRENCIES: The December Euro currency closed down 82 points at 1.3701 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Euro bulls' next upside price breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 1.3925. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid chart support at last week's low of 1.3501. First resistance for the Euro lies at 1.3750 and then at 1.3800. Next support is seen at 1.3650 and then at 1.3600. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

The December Japanese yen closed up 62 points at 1.3088 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh four-week high. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at the contract high of 1.3180. Bears' next downside breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 1.2860. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.3120 and then at 1.3180. First support is seen at 1.3050 and then at today's low of 1.3003. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.0.

The December Swiss franc closed down 64 points at 1.1383 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bears have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 1.1750. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of 1.1234. First resistance is seen at 1.1400 and then at 1.1500. First support is seen at 1.1350 and then at today's low of 1.1287. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The December Australian dollar closed down 137 points at 1.0128 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit a fresh five-week low. The bulls have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded recently. Prices are in a three-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid chart resistance at 1.0300. The next downside breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 1.0000. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.0205 and then at 1.0285. Next support is seen at today's low of 1.0056 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5

The December Canadian dollar closed down 100 points at 1.0088 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. Trading has been choppy and bulls have the slight near-term technical advantage. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is producing a close above chart resistance at last week's high of 1.0204. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at last week's low of .9951. First resistance is seen at 1.0150 and then at today's high of 1.0183. First support is seen at today's low of 1.0057 and then at 1.0000. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The December British pound closed down 84 points at 1.5689 today. Prices closed near mid-range today and hit another seven-month low. Serious chart damage has been inflicted recently. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage as prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 1.5900. Bears' next downside technical breakout objective is closing prices below solid support at 1.5500. First resistance is seen at today's high of 1.5741 and then at 1.5800. First support is seen at today's low of 1.5618 and then at 1.5550. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0.

The December U.S. dollar index closed up 54 points at 77.57 today. Prices closed nearer the session low today. The bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in a three-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is to close prices above solid technical resistance at last week's high of 78.29. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at 76.00. Next resistance lies at 78.00 and then at 78.29. First support is seen at today's low of 77.40 and then at 77.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

December U.S. T-Bonds closed up 2 full points at 141 14/32 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Same story: The bond market bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. There are still no early clues to suggest a market top is close at hand. The next downside price breakout objective for the T-Bond bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 137 even. The next upside technical objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 143 even. First resistance is seen at the contract high of 141 31 and then at 142 16/32. First support is seen at 141 even and then at 140 16/32. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 9.0.

December U.S. T Notes closed up 27.5 (32nds) at 130.13.5 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. The next upside price breakout objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid resistance at 132.00.0. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is producing a close below solid technical support at 128.11.5. First resistance is seen at today's high of 130.21.5 and then at the contract high of 131.04.0. First support is seen at today's low of 129.27.0 and then at 129.16.0. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 8.5.

GENERAL STOCK MARKET COMMENT: The U.S. stock indexes closed lower today but well off their session lows, as some late news surfaced that Greece and its creditors may be close to agreement on Greece receiving its next tranche of money. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum but need to show more power soon to keep it.

The Nasdaq stock futures index closed down 4.25 at 2,303.00 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today and hit a fresh six-week high. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 2,400.00. The bears' next downside price breakout objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 2,108.25. First resistance is seen at today's high of 2,314.50 and then at 2,325.00. First support is seen at 2,275.00 and then at today's low of 2,254.25. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.0.

The S&P 500 futures index closed down 14.80 at 1,197.00. Prices closed nearer the session high today. Bulls' next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid resistance at 1,250.00. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the September low of 1,123.90. First resistance is seen at last week's high of 1,213.50 and then at 1,229.50. First support is seen at today's low of 1,186.80 and then at 1,175.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

The Dow futures closed down 123 points at 11,323 today. Prices closed nearer the session high today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 11,700. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the September low of 10,745. First resistance in the Dow lies at today's high of 11,368 and then at 11,400. First support is seen at 11,300 and then at 11,250. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.5.

Click below for my welcome letter to all new customers and for an explanation of my Market Rating System.

http://www.jimwyckoff.com/newsletter/WelcomeAboard/

IMPORTANT NOTE: I am not a futures broker and do not manage any trading accounts other than my own personal account. It is my goal to point out to you potential trading opportunities. However, it is up to you to: (1) decide when and if you want to initiate any traders and (2) determine the size of any trades you may initiate. Any trades I discuss are hypothetical in nature.

Here is what the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has said about futures trading (and I agree 100%): 1. Trading commodity futures and options is not for everyone. IT IS A VOLATILE, COMPLEX AND RISKY BUSINESS. Before you invest any money in futures or options contracts, you should consider your financial experience, goals and financial resources, and know how much you can afford to lose above and beyond your initial payment to a broker. You should understand commodity futures and options contracts and your obligations in entering into those contracts. You should understand your exposure to risk and other aspects of trading by thoroughly reviewing the risk disclosure documents your broker is required to give you.

Jim Wyckoff


 

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