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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Apr 2

Apr 02, 2013

Tuesday, April 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, there was more dour economic data coming
out of the European Union Tuesday. The number of Euro zone
unemployed workers rose to a record level in February, which
underscores the bloc’s economic and financial problems. The
overall Euro zone unemployment rate was 12.0% in February,
which is unchanged from January. Meanwhile, Euro zone
manufacturing data for March showed weakness at an
accelerating rate. The Euro zone manufacturing PMI was
reported at 46.8 in March from 47.9 in February. There were
no new developments on the Cyprus banking crisis front.
European stocks were modestly higher Tuesday. Still, the
overall European Union political and economic situation
remains a concern for the market place and continues to make
traders and investors more risk-averse. U.S. economic data
due for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs
and Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the ISM New York
report on business, manufacturers’ shipments and orders, the
global manufacturing PMI, and domestic auto sales on an
annual basis. Traders and investors are looking ahead to
Friday’s release of the U.S. employment situation report,
which is arguably the most important U.S. economic report of
the month. The consensus forecast calls for the key non-farm
payrolls figure to have risen by 200,000 in March, with the
overall unemployment rate unchanged from the previous month,
at 7.7%.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
near a five-year high. Bulls have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving averages
(4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the
18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Monday’s for-the-move high
of 1,564.60 and then at 1,575.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,555.40 and then
at last week’s low of 1,539.20. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are higher early today and
hovering near the recent six-month high. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the March high of
2,817.50 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,800.00 and then at the overnight low of 2,786.25.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0.

Dow futures: Prices are higher early today and hit another
all-time record high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 14,500 and then at Monday’s low
of 13,460. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance 14,600 and then at 14,650. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady and hit another
three-month high overnight. Bulls still have the slight
near-term technical advantage, amid safe-haven demand
recently. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 145 4/32 and then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 144 20/32 and then at
this week’s low of 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were slightly lower overnight on
mild profit taking. Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at the overnight high of 132.08.0 and then at last
week’s high of 132.11.0. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
132.00.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.23.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is near steady early today. The
greenback bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 83.000 and then at this week’s high of 83.365.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.645
and then at 82.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking after hitting a six-week high on Monday. Bulls
still have the near-term technical advantage. In May Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $97.18 and then at Monday’s high of
$97.80. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $96.62 and then at $96.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher overnight on short covering and a
corrective technical bounce following recent very strong
selling pressure, led by corn. Serious near-term chart
damage has been inflicted in the grain futures markets the
past two trading sessions, following the bearish USDA data
last Thursday. How the grain markets close out this week
will be extra important. Closes in the grains near the
weekly high on Friday would be a clue that prices have
likely put in market bottoms. If that’s not the case, then
more downside price pressure is likely in the grain futures
markets in the coming weeks. U.S. Corn Belt weather
patterns will start to dominate the fundamental news in the
coming weeks, but wetter weather patterns in the central
U.S. are also bearish for the grains.
 

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