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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 1

Apr 01, 2013

Monday, April 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, most European markets were closed Monday
for the Easter holiday. The Cyprus bank bailout situation
has calmed down for the moment, but the overall European
Union sovereign debt crisis remains as an undercurrent in
the risk assessment of the market place. That is supportive
for safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, U.S. Treasuries
and gold. In Asia overnight, China’s official purchasing
managers’ index was 50.9 in March, which is up from 50.1 in
February but just below market expectations. U.S. economic
data due for release Monday includes the U.S. manufacturing
PMI, construction spending and the ISM manufacturing report
on business. Traders and investors are looking ahead to
Friday’s release of the U.S. employment situation report,
which is arguably the most important U.S. economic report of
the month.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on
mild profit-taking after prices last week hit a five-year
high. Bulls still have the firm overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at last week’s high of 1,564.30 and then
at 1,575.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at Thursday’s low of 1,549.90 and then at last week’s low of
1,539.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early today
and hovering near the recent six-month high. Bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the March high of
2,817.50 and then at 2,825.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,800.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 2,791.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5.

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today and
hovering not far below the all-time record high. Bulls have
the solid near-term technical advantage. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Friday’s low of
14,460 and then at 13,400. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance 14,550 and then at 14,600.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today on some
profit taking after hitting a three-month high on Thursday.
Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage,
amid safe-haven demand recently. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 144 14/32 and then
at last week’s high of 1443 31/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at 144 even and then at 143 13/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5
 
June U.S. T-Notes: Prices were weaker lower overnight on
some profit taking after hitting a 3.5-month high on
Thursday. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131.31.0 and then at last week’s high of 132.11.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.23.5 and then at 131.19.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The U.S. dollar index is slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking after hitting a 7.5-month high last week. The
greenback bulls have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 83.365 and then at last
week’s high of 83.525. Shorter-term support is seen at 83.00
and then at 82.880. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on profit taking
after hitting a six-week high overnight. Bulls still have
the near-term technical advantage. In May Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $97.00 and
then at the overnight high of $97.80. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $96.00 and then at $95.58.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were lower to sharply lower overnight. Corn is
leading the way on the downside following last Thursday’s
bearish USDA planting intentions and quarterly grain stocks
reports. Serious near-term chart damage has now been
inflicted in the grain futures markets. The bearish USDA
data last Thursday has now set the tone for bearish grain
futures markets for at least the coming weeks. U.S. Corn
Belt weather patterns will start to dominate the
fundamental news in the coming weeks, but wetter weather
patterns in the central U.S. are also bearish for the
grains.
 

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