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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--April 13

Apr 13, 2012

Friday, April 13--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s a mild “risk-off” day in the market place so far
Friday morning. That has the stock indexes and raw
commodity markets under some selling pressure, while the
U.S. Treasuries prices are higher. The market place at
present is unsure about the prospects of further U.S.
quantitative easing of monetary policy, especially after
last week’s downbeat U.S. jobs report. But there is now
talk China will loosen its monetary policy following a
weaker-than-expected GDP figure released overnight.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,388.00 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,377.30
and then at Thursday’s low of 1,363.40. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at this week’s high of 2,748.00 and
then at 2,761.25. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 2,725.00 and then at Thursday’s low of
2,704.75. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,900 and then at 12,850. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of
12,953 and then more stops just above resistance at 13,000.
Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 140 12/32 and then at 140 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 141 6/32
and then at 141 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131.16.5 and then at this week’s high of 131.23.5.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at 131.00.0 and then at this
week’s low of 130.28.5. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The June U.S. dollar index is slightly higher early today.
Trading has turned choppy. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of
79.72 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at
Thursday’s low of 79.36 and then at 79.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly lower today. Prices
are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart. However, a bullish weekly high close today would
provide the bulls with fresh upside near-term technical
momentum to suggest a market low is in place. In May crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Thursday’s high of $104.24 and then at $105.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $102.86 and then at $102.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. Corn
bulls have faded this week but soybean bulls still have
upside near-term technical momentum. Wheat bulls have faded
badly. The key “outside markets” are in a mildly bearish
posture for the grains early today, as the U.S. dollar
index is firmer and crude oil prices are weaker.
 

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