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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 1

Aug 01, 2012

Wednesday, August 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Focus of the market place today is on the conclusion early
Wednesday afternoon of the two-day FOMC meeting of the U.S.
Federal Reserve. It is not widely believed the Fed will
announce a major new stimulus initiative (QE3) at this time.
However, many believe such an announcement will occur in the
coming weeks. The European Central Bank’s policy meeting and
press conference is on Thursday. The Bank of England also
meets to discuss its monetary policy, with results on
Thursday. The ECB is expected by many to announce a fresh
monetary stimulus package. Major monetary easing moves by
the major central banks of the world would be at least
initially bullish for many markets, including the precious
metals. In overnight news, Germany’s economy minister
reportedly said allowing the European Union’s new bailout
fund to have broad banking powers is not a good way to go.
The German Bundesbank president also made hawkish comments
on the EU bailout process. Those remarks seem to run counter
to recent statements from the European Central Bank
president Mario Draghi, who last week said the ECB would do
whatever it takes to keep the Euro currency in its present
form. There was also more weak economic data coming out of
the EU Wednesday. The Spanish 10-year bond yield was quoted
just above 6.5%, while Italian bond yields were quoted just
below 6% on Wednesday. After the batch of central bank
meetings are out of the way, focus of the market place will
quickly turn to the U.S. employment report on Friday
morning.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,387.30 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,370.50 and then
at 1,360.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls still have some upside momentum
on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the July high of 2,658.00 and then at 2,675.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at this week’s low of 2,628.25
and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Tuesday’s low of 12,935 and then at
12,900. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,000 and then at Tuesday’s high of 13,024.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at the overnight high of 151 19/32 and then at 152 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 151 even and
then at Tuesday’s low of 150 17/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance
lies at this week’s high of 134.28.0 and then at 135.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
134.17.5 and then at this week’s low of 134.10.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are near steady in early U.S. trading. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 83.04 and then at 83.25. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.54 and then at
last week’s low of 82.40. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. Bulls are
fading a bit and need to show fresh power soon. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $88.00 and then at this
week’s low of $87.31. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower in overnight trading, on profit-taking
pressure from recent gains. While the major drought in the
U.S. continues, there are some cooler temps and better
chances for rain in the forecast—but such is no drought-
breaker. However, remember that a major bull market needs
to digest fresh, bullish fundamental news often. This major
bull run in grains is mature, and now with very little
fresh, bullish fundamental fodder to digest.
 

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