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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 10

Aug 10, 2012

Friday, August 10--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a moderate “risk-off” trading day in the market place
Friday. Asian and European stock markets slumped, and U.S.
stock indexes followed them, on fresh, weak Chinese economic
data. Both Chinese import and export activities slowed
significantly in July, while bank lending activity
contracted. Friday’s weak China economic data follows the
downbeat data coming out of China on Thursday. China has
been a major consumer of raw commodities and any slowdown in
the world’s second-largest economy is going to have
ramifications on other world economies and commodity
markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have some upside technical
momentum on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,400.50 and then at the May high of 1,411.50. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at this week’s
low of 1,387.40 and then at 1,375.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at this week’s high of 2,723.25 and
then at 2,735.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,686.25 and then at this week’s low of 2,671.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at this week’s low of 13,057 and then at
13,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at this week’s high of 13,160 and then at 13,200.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 4/32 and then
at 149 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 148 16/32 and
then at the overnight low of 148 4/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 133.26.5 and then
at 134.04.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 133.12.0 and then at this week’s low of
133.05.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls are regaining
some upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 83.00 and then at
83.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
82.68 and then at 82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today, on profit taking
from recent gains. In September Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at $92.50 and then at
$93.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$91.50 and then at $91.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher in overnight trading, on some
position evening heading into this morning’s key USDA
monthly supply and demand report. Corn futures are near
all-time record highs as corn traders expect a very bullish
USDA report on Friday. I would not be surprised to see a
“buy the rumor, sell the fact” scenario play out in the
grains today. Traders have been expecting such a bullish
report, and have already factored such into prices. My bias
is still that there is not much more room on the upside in
the grains, on a sustainable basis. However, a brief spike
to new all-time highs in corn and soybeans cannot be ruled
out.
 

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