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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 16

Aug 16, 2012

Thursday, August 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, there were reports Chinese leader Wen
Jiabao said his country may have to ease monetary policy
soon. However, the market place shrugged off his comments.
European stock markets were quiet and range-bound. U.K.
retail sales data was released and it came out stronger than
expected. Traders are once again looking to a fresh batch of
U.S. economic data Thursday for price direction. Many market
participants are on the sidelines, or are tentative, as they
wait to see if the U.S. Federal Reserve will act to
implement another round of quantitative easing of U.S.
monetary policy—nicknamed QE3. Any such action could occur
at the Fed’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming annual gathering in late-
August, or at the next meeting of the Fed’s Federal Open
Market Committee in September.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have upside technical momentum
on their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the May high of 1,411.50 and then at
1,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at last
week’s low of 1,387.40 and then at 1,375.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh 3.5-month high
overnight. Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the May high
of 2,753.00 and then at 2,775.00. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support
is seen at 2,725.00 and then at this week’s low of 2,705.75.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Wednesday’s low of 13,120 and then at this week’s
low of 13,080. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at this week’s high of 13,185 and then at 13,200.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh three-month low
overnight. Bulls are fading badly. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is
below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 7/32 and then
at 146 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 145 12/32 and then at 145 even. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh three-month low
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.18.5 and then at 132.24.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 132.05.0 and then at
132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls have the
solid overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 82.96 and then at 83.25. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.67 and then at
82.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. In September
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at Wednesday’s high of $94.90 and then at $96.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $93.93 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. The major
U.S. drought lingers on, but it appears the market place
has pretty much digested the impact on grain prices of the
worst drought in decades. Traders will closely examine this
morning’s weekly USDA export sales data. My bias is still
that there is not much more room on the upside in the
grains, on a sustainable basis.
 

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