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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 2

Aug 02, 2012

Thursday, August 2--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Focus of the market place Thursday is squarely upon the
European Central Bank’s policy meeting and press conference.
The ECB is expected by many to announce a fresh monetary
stimulus package. However, there is no clear consensus on
what the ECB will do. Any major monetary easing move by a
major central bank would be at least initially bullish for
many markets, including the precious metals. The Bank of
England also is meeting to discuss its monetary policy, with
results just out. As expected, the BOE left its interest
rates unchanged and took no major action on its monetary
policy. Wednesday afternoon’s conclusion of the FOMC meeting
of the U.S. Federal Reserve saw another downbeat assessment
of the U.S. economy, but no major new stimulus initiative
(QE3) was announced. However, many believe such an
announcement will occur in the coming weeks. After the batch
of central bank meetings are out of the way, focus of the
market place will quickly turn to the U.S. employment report
on Friday morning. The key non-farm payrolls component of
the jobs report is expected to have risen by 95,000 in
July.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,387.30 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,369.00 and then
at 1,353.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the July high of 2,658.00 and then at 2,675.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
2,618.50 and then at 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Wednesday’s low of 12,900 and then at 12,850. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,000 and then at Tuesday’s high of 13,024. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 151 even and then at this week’s high of
151 20/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of
150 7/32 and then at this week’s low of 149 28/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
134.16.0 and then at this week’s high of 134.28.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 134.04.0 and
then at last week’s low of 133.26.5. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading, on a mild
corrective pullback from gains posted Wednesday. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 83.28 and then at 83.50. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 82.85 and then at
this week’s low of 82.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today. In
September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $90.00 and then at $91.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $88.00 and then at
this week’s low of $87.31. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly lower in overnight trading, on more
profit-taking pressure from recent gains. While the major
drought in the U.S. continues, there are some cooler temps
and better chances for rain in the forecast—but such is no
drought-breaker. Remember that a major bull market needs to
digest fresh, bullish fundamental news often. This major
bull run in grains is mature, and now with very little
fresh, bullish fundamental fodder to digest. My bias is
that there is not much more room on the upside in the
grains, on a sustainable basis. This means I cannot rule
out a brief spike, which many times occurs in a major bull
run in commodity markets.
 

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