Sep 21, 2014
Home| Tools| Events| Blogs| Discussions Sign UpLogin


Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 20

Aug 20, 2012

Monday, August 20--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, there was a German report the European
Central Bank is considering putting a cap on EU peripheral
country bond yields. That pushed Italian and Spanish bonds
yields down a bit, while pushing German bond yields up a
bit. The report said the ECB would buy a country’s bonds
when the yields exceeded a certain rate. However, traders
are really looking forward to the Jackson Hole, Wyoming U.S.
Federal Reserve confab next week, and the mid-September FOMC
meeting. Many raw commodity and stock market bulls are
hoping the Fed will soon announce a fresh quantitative
easing of monetary policy--nicknamed QE3. The minutes of the
last FOMC meeting are due out this Wednesday. Still, it’s
another quiet summertime trading day in the market place so
far Monday. There has been little “headline risk” in recent
weeks, as much of Europe is on vacation and the U.S. moves
through the summertime doldrums.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh five-month high
overnight. Bulls still have upside technical momentum on
their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the March high of 1,419.60
and then at 1,425.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at 1,402.00 and then at 1,387.40. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh nearly five-month
high overnight. Bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the April
high of 2,791.50 and then at 2,800.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Friday’s low of 2,763.25 and then at
2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,200 and then at 13,150. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at the May high of
13,280 and then at 13,300. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls have faded badly the past
three weeks. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 145 30/32 and then at 146 16/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at last week’s low of 145 4/32 and then at 145
even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Bears still have downside technical
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.18.0 and then at 132.22.5. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at last week’s low of 132.05.0 and
then at 132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are slightly higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage but trading has
been choppy. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are
bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at last week’s high of 82.96 and then
at 83.15. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 82.43 and then at last week’s low of 82.25. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today and poked
to a fresh three-month high overnight. Bulls have upside
near-term technical momentum. In September Nymex crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $96.53 and then at $97.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $95.00 and then at
$94.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading. Focus in the
grain markets this week is on the annual Pro Farmer Midwest
Crop Tour that kicks off today. It’s expected the tour will
find dour conditions for much of the U.S. corn and soybean
crops in the Corn Belt. However, trader focus is also
becoming less on the major U.S. drought and the supply
impact, and more on the high grain prices and the resulting
lessening demand impact. My bias is still that there is not
much more room on the upside in the grains, on a
sustainable basis.
 

Log In or Sign Up to comment

COMMENTS

No comments have been posted, be the first one to comment.
 
 
The Home Page of Agriculture
© 2014 Farm Journal, Inc. All Rights Reserved|Web site design and development by AmericanEagle.com|Site Map|Privacy Policy|Terms & Conditions