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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 23

Aug 23, 2012

Thursday, August 23--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place continues to digest Wednesday afternoon’s
somewhat surprising contents of the minutes of the last FOMC
meeting of Federal Reserve Board members. FOMC members said
they are ready to implement further monetary stimulus
measures should the U.S. economy show more weakness. The
minutes were deemed bullish for most commodity markets and
for the U.S. stock indexes, while putting downside pressure
on the U.S. dollar index. In overnight news, Asian stocks
rallied on the renewed hopes for a U.S. monetary stimulus
package. However, there was a weaker-than-expected
manufacturing sector report coming out of China Thursday.
The HSBC China manufacturing purchasing managers’ index came
in at the lowest reading in nine months. European stocks
backed down from their daily highs when the European Union
reported its own weak purchasing managers’ index Thursday,
which suggests the EU is slipping back into economic
recession.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the overnight
high of 1,417.90 and then at this week’s high of 1,424.60.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,400.00 and
then at 1,387.40. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls still have upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at the overnight high of 2,792.50 and
then at this week’s high of 2,802.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at 2,775.00 and then at this week’s low of
2,759.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Wednesday’s low of 13,100 and then at
13,050. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Wednesday’s high of 13,188 and then at 13,250.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are regaining some upside
near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 148 8/32 and then at 148 25/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 147 21/32 and
then at 147 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 133.22.0 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 133.10.0 and then at
133.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading and hit a fresh 3.5-
month low overnight. Bears have the near-term technical
advantage as a four-week-old downtrend line is in place on
the daily bar chart. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.53 and then
at 81.80. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low
of 81.30 and then at 81.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh 3.5-
month high overnight. Bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum. In October Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $98.29
and then at $99.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $97.17 and then at $96.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading.
Bulls still have some upside near-term technical momentum.
Focus this week is on the annual Pro Farmer Midwest Crop
Tour. Results of the tour show very poor corn and soybean
crops in the Corn Belt. Following the FOMC minutes
Wednesday, there could be some fresh speculative money
flowing into the grains on ideas QE3 is coming soon.
 

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