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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 3

Aug 03, 2012

Friday, August 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The focus of the market place Friday is squarely on the U.S.
employment report, which is arguably the most important U.S.
economic report of the month. The key non-farm payrolls
component of the jobs report is expected to have risen by
95,000 in July. Look for more active trading action in the
immediate aftermath of the report. In overnight news, the
European stock markets rallied as traders and investors took
a second look at the European Central Bank president
Draghi’s remarks at his press conference Thursday, following
the ECB meeting. While the ECB took no specific action
Thursday, traders reckon a fresh, significant stimulus plan
is right around the corner. Italian and Spanish shorter-
dated bond yields did decline significantly Friday.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at this week’s high of
1,387.30 and then at 1,400.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at the overnight low of 1,360.00 and then
at this week’s low of 1,350.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the July high of
2,658.00 and then at 2,675.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,616.00 and then at this
week’s low of 2,600.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,900 and then at 12,850. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 13,000 and then at
13,024. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The
9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies
at 151 even and then at the overnight high of 151 19/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 150 7/32 and then at 150 even.
Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 134.22.5 and then at this week’s high of
134.29.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 134.00.0 and then at
last week’s low of 133.26.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are lower in early U.S. trading, as trading becomes
choppy. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 83.06 and then at the overnight high of 83.47.
Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 82.82
and then at 82.54. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on some short
covering. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $89.00 and then at $90.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at the
overnight low of $87.23 and then at this week’s low of
$86.92. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading, on more
profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Not much new in
the grains. While the major drought in the U.S. continues,
there are some cooler temps and better chances for rain in
the forecast—but such is no drought-breaker. Remember that
a major bull market needs to digest fresh, bullish
fundamental news often. This major bull run in grains is
mature, and now with very little fresh, bullish fundamental
fodder to digest. My bias is that there is not much more
room on the upside in the grains, on a sustainable basis.
This means I cannot rule out a brief spike, which many
times occurs in a major bull run in commodity markets.
 

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