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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 7

Aug 07, 2012

Tuesday, August 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, Asian stocks were firmer as traders and
investors in that region look forward to fresh economic data
from China due out later this week. Australia’s central bank
left its interest rates unchanged, which was expected.
European stock indexes were lower following fresh, weak
economic data coming out of Italy and Germany. Gross
domestic product in Italy contracted in the second quarter,
with a report on industrial production in that nation also
showing a decline in June. Also, there was a downbeat German
manufacturing report issued Tuesday. The U.K. also saw a
weak industrial production report on Tuesday.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to another fresh three-month
high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at 1,400.00 and then at the May high of
1,411.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
Monday’s low of 1,387.40 and then at 1,375.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to another fresh three-
month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at 2,715.00 and then at 2,725.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight low of
2,686.25 and then at Monday’s low of 2,671.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Prices poked to a fresh three-month high
overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 13,057 and then at 13,000. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Monday’s high of 13,127 and then at 13,200. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading a bit. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 30/32 and then
at Monday’s high of 150 11/32. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
149 8/32 and then at 149 even. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Bulls are fading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 134.04.0 and then
at Monday’s high of 134.10.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
last week’s low of 133.24.5 and then at 133.16.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at the overnight high of 82.42 and then at
Monday’s high of 82.62. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 82.12 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today and hit a fresh two-
week high overnight. Bulls have fresh upside technical
momentum. In September Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the July high of $93.25 and
then at $94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $91.78 and then at Monday’s
low of $90.63. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, with soybeans
leading the way. USDA crop progress data issued Monday
afternoon was in line with market expectations, showing a
U.S. corn and soybean crop in bad shape. The key “outside
markets” are in a mildly bullish posture for the grains
early today, as the U.S. dollar index is weaker and crude
oil prices are firmer. In the Corn Belt, there are cooler
temps and some rain chances on tap this week. My bias is
still that there is not much more room on the upside in the
grains, on a sustainable basis. Traders and analysts are
anxiously awaiting Friday’s USDA supply and demand report.
 

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