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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--August 8

Aug 08, 2012

Wednesday, August 8--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

The market place is quieter Wednesday morning, amid a lack
of major, market-moving news in the world. The “dog days” of
summer have set in as many markets are stagnant. The next
three weeks may see more of the same, as much of Europe is
on holiday during August and as families in the U.S. are in
vacation mode before the new school year starts.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Bulls have upside technical momentum on
their side. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Tuesday’s high of 1,403.30
and then at the May high of 1,411.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,387.40 and
then at 1,375.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Bulls have upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at Tuesday’s high of 2,723.00 and then at 2,735.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low of
2,686.25 and then at this week’s low of 2,671.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Bulls have upside near-term technical momentum.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
this week’s low of 13,057 and then at 13,000. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at 13,110 and
then at Tuesday’s high of 13,160. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

September U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 149 3/32 and then
at 149 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low
of 148 10/32 and then at 148 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

September U.S. T-Notes: Bulls are fading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
133.25.0 and then at 134.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
Tuesday’s low of 133.14.0 and then at 133.00.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

Prices are firmer in early U.S. trading. Bulls are fading.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at this week’s high of 82.62 and then at Monday’s
high of 82.80. Shorter-term support is seen at Tuesday’s low
of 82.06 and then at 82.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today, on a corrective
pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high Tuesday. Bulls still
have some upside technical momentum. In September Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
Tuesday’s high of $94.42 and then at $95.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$92.82 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading, on some
profit taking. The key “outside markets” are in a mildly
bearish posture for the grains early today, as the U.S.
dollar index is firmer and crude oil prices are weaker. In
the Corn Belt, there are cooler temps and some rain chances
in the weather forecast. My bias is still that there is not
much more room on the upside in the grains, on a
sustainable basis. Traders and analysts are anxiously
awaiting Friday’s USDA supply and demand report.
 

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