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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 14

Dec 14, 2012

Friday, December 14--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, European stocks and the Euro currency
treaded water. European Central Bank officials said Friday
that strains on the EU banking system have eased in recent
months, but said more work needs to be done in the coming
months. The ECB also said it sees inflation in the EU
declining for the next two years. Meantime, business
activity in the EU in December fell to its lowest level in
nine months. Still, the data company Markit said Euro zone
economic activity has bottomed out and is on the upswing.
However, the overall Euro zone economy remains in recession.
In Asia overnight, stock markets were higher head of major
Japanese elections this weekend. The HSBC China preliminary
purchasing managers index for December rose to 50.9 from
50.5 in November. That reading is a 14-month high, and
further bolsters notions China’s economy is picking up
steam. In the U.S., attention of the market place remains on
the U.S. “fiscal cliff” tax increases and spending cuts that
is fast approaching. President Obama and House Speaker
Boehner met Thursday afternoon to talk about the matter, but
no agreement resulted. The market place reckons odds are a
bit higher than not that there will be a last-minute
agreement among U.S. lawmakers to avoid the fiscal cliff.
However, the lack of progress between the Obama
administration and Congress as the year winds down is making
traders very skittish. The overall situation continues to be
a bearish drag on many markets, including the raw
commodities and stock markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today.
Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar
chart. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at Thursday’s high of 1,425.30 and then at this week’s
high of 1,433.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,410.00 and then at last week’s low
of 1,397.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
the overnight high of 2,658.25 and then at 2,675.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of
2,637.75 and then at this week’s low of 2,644.25. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Prices are still
in a four-week-old uptrend. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,094 and then at 13,050. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Thursday’s high of 13,170 and then at 13,200. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are near steady early today.
Bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 148
even and then at Thursday’s high of 148 10/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 147 15/32 and
then at this week’s low of 147 9/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early today and hit a
fresh five-week low overnight. Bulls are fading and need to
show fresh power soon. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
133.00.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 133.05.5. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 132.17.0 and
then at 132.10.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early U.S.
trading today. Bulls have faded recently. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.23 and
then at 80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 79.82 and then at 79.78. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market
Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are firmer early today on short covering.
Bears still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. In January Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at this week’s high of $87.68
and then at $88.00. Look for sell stops just below technical
support at the overnight low of $86.07 and then at this
week’s low of $85.21. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were higher in overnight trading, on short covering
from recent selling pressure. The grain market bulls faded
this week, with wheat bears gaining downside technical
momentum. The wheat market’s price action this week is
worrisome for the entire grain futures complex. If wheat
prices continue to erode, there is likely to be spillover
selling pressure enter the corn and soybean markets and at
least limit their upside potential. All grain traders need
to keep a closer eye on the wheat market in the near term.
 

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