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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 21

Dec 21, 2012

Friday, December 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight action, U.S. stock indexes, Asian stocks and
European stocks were lower, along with the Euro currency, as
investors continued to worry about the U.S. fiscal cliff
negotiations that have stalled. U.S. House of
Representatives Speaker Boehner late Thursday was forced to
withdraw from consideration his “Plan B” budget plan that
President Obama said he would veto. Boehner said he did not
have the Republican votes to pass the measure. U.S. stock
indexes spiked lower in the immediate aftermath of that
news, but did rebound from the lower levels. U.S. lawmakers
have until January 3 to come to agreement before the
government falls off the fiscal cliff. Markets do not like
uncertainty and most markets remain jittery as the deadline
draws closer. Credit ratings agencies have recently warned
that if the U.S. does go over the fiscal cliff it risks
sovereign credit downgrades. In the European Union, surveys
released Friday show that Germans and Italians are more
pessimistic about their economies, while the French are a
bit more upbeat. U.S. economic reports due for release
Friday include durable goods orders, personal income and
outlays, the Chicago Fed national activity index, the
University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey, and the
Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are sharply lower in early trading
today. Prices hit a fresh four-week low overnight. Bulls
have quickly faded as a four-week-old uptrend on the daily
bar chart has been negated today. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at 1,433.00 and
then at the overnight high of 1,441.20. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,406.00 and then at 1,400.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 3.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are sharply lower early today.
Bulls have quickly faded. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at 2,675.00 and then at the
overnight high of 2,695.45. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,637.00 and then at 2,625.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

Dow futures: Prices are sharply lower early today. Bulls are
fading. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at this week’s low of 13,055 and then at 13,000. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
13,150 and then at Thursday’s high of 13,375. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 3.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on more
short covering and some fresh safe-haven buying after
hitting a two-month low Tuesday. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 147 16/32 and then
148 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies the 147 even and then at
the overnight low of 146 12/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on short
covering and safe-haven buying after hitting a six-week low
on Tuesday. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.18.0 and then at this week’s high of
132.24.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
132.02.0 and then at this week’s low of 131.25.5. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early U.S.
trading, on tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices
Wednesday hit a three-month low. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 79.65 and then at
79.78. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
79.34 and then at this week’s low of 79.01. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today, on some profit
taking and a corrective pullback from recent gains. In
February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $90.00 and then at the December high of
$90.90. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
the overnight low of $88.68 and then at $88.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer in overnight trading, on some short
covering. The grain market bulls have faded badly recently
and bears still have downside near-term technical momentum
on their side. Bulls are seeking some fresh, bullish
fundamental inputs for the grains. Bullish news in the
grains has been scarce recently.
 

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