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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Dec. 27

Dec 27, 2012

Thursday, December 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Many traders and investors are on the sidelines this week,
enjoying the holiday season. That makes for thin market
conditions. Investors and traders continue to worry about
the U.S. fiscal cliff negotiations that have stalled and now
with only a few days left for U.S. lawmakers to reach a
deal. President Obama did come back from his Hawaii vacation
early, and more meetings are scheduled for Thursday.
Lawmakers have until January 3 to come to agreement before
the government falls off the fiscal cliff. Markets do not
like uncertainty and most markets remain jittery as the
deadline draws closer. Credit ratings agencies have recently
warned that if the U.S. does go over the fiscal cliff it
risks sovereign credit downgrades. In overnight news, the
Japanese stock market rallied to a nearly two-year high on
hopes for more monetary policy stimulus coming from the Bank
of Japan. European stock markets were firmer, helped in part
by a successful auction of Italian bonds and better Italian
manufacturing data. U.S. economic reports due for release
Thursday include the weekly jobless claims report, the
Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index, and the consumer
confidence index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today.
Bulls have faded a bit recently as a four-week-old uptrend
on the daily bar chart has been negated. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today.
The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes
in at Wednesday’s high of 1,425.00 and then at 1,433.00. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at the overnight
low of 1,411.00 and then at 1,406.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls
have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at 2,650.00 and then at
Wednesday’s high of 2,658.75. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at Wednesday’s low of 2,622.00 and then at the December
low of 2,609.25. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today. Bulls have faded
recently as a five-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart
has been negated. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Wednesday’s low of 13,020 and then at
13,000. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Wednesday’s high of 13,100 and then at 13,160.
Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are weaker early today. Bulls
have been trying to recover from recent losses but have much
more work to do. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 147 20/32 and 148 even. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
the overnight low of 146 30/32 and then at 146 24/32. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker early. Bulls have
been trying to forge a market bottom but have more heavy
lifting to do to suggest such has occurred. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 132.17.5 and
then at 132.20.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 132.10.0 and then at 132.08.0. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower in early U.S. trading.
Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical
advantage. Prices last week hit a three-month low. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.70 and then at this week’s high of
79.81. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.34 and then at
last week’s low of 79.01. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices
overnight hit a fresh nine-week high as the bulls have now
gained good upside technical momentum. In February Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $91.35 and then at $92.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at $90.00 and then
at $89.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. The grain market
bulls have faded badly recently and bears still have some
downside near-term technical momentum on their side. Bulls
are seeking some fresh, bullish fundamental inputs for the
grains. Bullish news in the grains has been scarce
recently. However, it would not surprise me to see some
fresh speculative money enter the grain markets on the long
side as the new year gets under way.
 

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