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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 1

Dec 01, 2011

Thursday, December 1--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The commodity market bulls received an early Christmas present
Wednesday when the world’s major banks pledged to pump more
liquidity into the world’s financial system. On top of that,
China on Wednesday also loosened its monetary policy to try to
increase its economic growth. These moves are commodity-market-
bullish because of the price inflation implications of easier
monetary policies and because of the likelihood that the strength
of the U.S. dollar will also at least be tempered. The table is
now set for the commodity market bulls to have a good holiday
season and a happy new year.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,249.20 and then at 1,270.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,236.00 and
then at 1,225.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,305.00 and then at 2,325.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,284.00 and then at
2,265.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,000 and then more stops just below support at
11,950. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 12,100 and then at the November high of 12,140. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early
today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 140
17/32 and then at 140 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies 141 even and
then at at the overnight high of 141 24/32. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.17.5
and then at 130.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 129.00.0 and then
at this week’s low of 128.28.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today.
Dollar index bulls are fading and need to show fresh power soon.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 79.00 and then at 79.50. Shorter-term support
is seen at 78.50 and then at this week’s low of 78.25. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading near steady early today. Bulls have
the overall near-term technical advantage and have gained fresh
upside momentum this week. In January crude, look for buy stops
to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $100.99
and then at this week’s high of $101.75. Look for sell stops just
below technical support at the overnight low of $99.88 and then
at $99.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mixed but mostly firmer in overnight trading. While
the grains are still in near-term bearish technical postures, my
bias is that there is not strong downside pressure left in the
grains. Grain markets are still following the outside markets.
The key outside markets are neutral for grains early today—-
weaker U.S. dollar index and steady-weak crude oil and stock
index prices. Grain traders will scrutinize this morning’s weekly
USDA export sales data.
 

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