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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 16

Dec 16, 2011

Friday, December 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is calmer in early trading Friday morning. Look
for quieter, low-volume trading until the holidays are past.
Money managers and big traders are squaring their books and
stepping aside until the new year begins. Unexpected major news
coming out of the European Union or a geopolitical shock would
quickly reignite the markets, but barring that, trading activity
will dwindle as traders focus on the holidays.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at 1,226.30 and then at 1,243.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,210.80 and
then at this week’s low of 1,198.30. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at Thursday’s high
of 2,252.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 2,276.50. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-
term support is seen at this week’s low of 2,215.00 and then at
2,200.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Thursday’s low of 11,785 and then more stops just
below support at this week’s low of 11,730. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at 11,900 and then at
11,950. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as
the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 143
25/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 144 15/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the September high of 131.05.0 and then at
131.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
130.17.5 and then at 130.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading
today and is seeing more mild profit taking after hitting an 11-
month high on Wednesday. Dollar index bulls still have the solid
overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.00
and then at this week’s high of 81.41. Shorter-term support is
seen at Thursday’s low of 80.77 and then at 80.58. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today, on a short-
covering corrective bounce from recent strong losses that did
produce near-term technical damage. In January crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then at
$96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at this
week’s low of $93.31 and then at $93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are mildly bullish for grains today—firmer crude oil and
stock index futures, and a weaker U.S. dollar index. Grain market
bears still possess the solid near-term technical advantage in
the markets.
 

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