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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 19

Dec 19, 2011

Monday, December 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The death of the North Korean Leader Kim Jong Il has put some
uncertainty in the market place to start the new trading weeks.
However, the market place is not exhibiting keen anxiety over the
matter. This week and next week are likely to see trading volumes
dwindle as the holidays approach. The big fund players will not
likely make any big moves until after the holidays.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at 1,226.30 and then at 1,243.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,210.00 and then at last week’s low
of 1,198.30. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Friday’s high of 2,264.25 and then at 2,276.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at last week’s low of 2,215.00 and then at
2,200.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 11,800 and then more stops just below support at
Friday’s low of 11,750. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Friday’s high of 11,890 and then at
11,950. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as
the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices hit a fresh 2.5-month high overnight
but did back off. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 29/32 and
then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight
high of 145 20/32 and then at the October high of 145 31/32. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 131.11.0 and then at
131.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at 130.17.5 and then at
130.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today
and is seeing more mild profit taking after hitting an 11-month
high last week. Dollar index bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-
term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.07 and then
at last week’s high of 81.41. Shorter-term support is seen at
Friday’s low of 80.59 and then at 80.32. Wyckoff's Intra Day
Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today, on a short-
covering corrective bounce from recent strong losses that did
produce near-term technical damage. In February crude, look for
buy stops to reside just above resistance at $95.00 and then at
$96.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at last
week’s low of $92.70 and then at $92.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on short
covering bounces from recent selling pressure. The key “outside
markets” are mildly bullish for grains today—steady to firmer
crude oil and stock index futures, and a steady to weaker U.S.
dollar index. Grain market bears still possess the overall near-
term technical advantage in the markets, but my bias is that
market lows are in place or close at hand.
 

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