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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 21

Dec 21, 2011

Wednesday, December 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil prices saw a big pop higher Tuesday to provide the
crude bulls with fresh technical momentum. Some other commodity
markets have also showed some strength this week, like the grains
and precious metals. It is my bias that early in the first
quarter of the new year substantial fresh fund money will start
to flow back into the long side of many commodity markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the overnight high of 1,249.00 and then at 1,254.30.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside support
for active traders today is located at 1,225.00 and then at
1,210.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,291.25 and then at 2,200.00.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,250.00 and then at 2,225.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,000 and then more stops just below support at
11,950. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 12,100 and then at 12,150. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are neutral. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies at the overnight
low of 143 19/32 and then at 143 even. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies
at the overnight high of 144 10/32 and then at 145 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 130.23.0 and then at
131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
130.10.0 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker again in early trading
today as the bulls are fading. Dollar index bulls do still have
the overall near-term technical advantage but need to show fresh
power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at 80.32 and then at 80.50. Shorter-term support is
seen at 79.75 and then at the overnight low of 79.55. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today. Bulls on Tuesday
did regain upside near-term technical momentum. In February
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $98.50 and then at $99.00. Look for sell stops
just below technical support at $97.00 and then at $96.00.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are mildly bullish for grains today—firmer crude oil and
stock index futures, and a weaker U.S. dollar index. Grain market
bears still possess the overall near-term technical advantage in
the markets, but the bulls have shown a bit of strength recently
and my bias is still that market lows are in place or close at
hand.
 

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