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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 30

Dec 30, 2011

Friday, December 30--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil prices are hovering around the $100-a-barrel level
again. However, when prices do poke above the $100 mark, they
stall out amid layers of overhead technical resistance. My bias
is that the crude oil market and many other commodity markets
will be bullish for 2012. However, it would not surprise me to
see crude oil experience a good corrective pullback sometime
during the first couple months of the new year.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at the December high of 1,268.00 and then at the
November high of 1,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at this week’s low of 1,243.10 and then at 1,232.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-
day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the
overnight high of 2,284.50 and then at this week’s high of
2,296.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the
downside, short-term support is seen at this week’s low of
2,253.75 and then at 2,234.50. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,150 and then more stops just below support at
Thursday’s low of 12,105. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at this week’s high of 12,252 and then at
12,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as
the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bulllish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 144 6/32 and
then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight
high of 144 22/32 and then at 145 even. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at Thursday’s high of
130.29.5 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the
overnight low of 130.19.0 and then at 130.00.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today, on
some profit taking. Dollar index bulls still have upside near-
term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index
are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term
technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.02 and then at
the December high of 81.41. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.50
and then at 80.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly lower early today. Trading
has turned choppy at higher price levels. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage, but there is stiff
overhead resistance when prices push above the $100-a-barrel
level. In February crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $100.16 and then at $101.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $99.00 and
then at this week’s low of $98.30. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer overnight. Grain market bulls have gained
upside near-term technical momentum recently and are heading into
the new year with a head of steam. The dry weather in South
American corn and soybean regions is a significantly bullish
fundamental for corn and soybean futures at present. I look for
more commodity fund money to flow into the grain markets in the
first quarter of the new year.
 

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