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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 5

Dec 05, 2011

Monday, December 5--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place is more stable to start the new trading week. It
is now more and more likely that the worst of the European Union
debt crisis is past, which has allowed markets to trade more on
their own supply and demand fundamentals and less in a fearful
“risk off” modality. It would be good for the market place to see
markets focusing more on their own fundamentals, although there
will always be some degree of “outside market” influence on most
markets.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance
comes in at last week’s high of 1,262.70 and then at the November
high of 1,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located at
Friday’s low of 1,242.40 and then at 1,225.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 6.0

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s high
of 2,344.75 and then at 2,375.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen
at the overnight low of 2,309.00 and then at 2,284.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 6.0

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 12,000 and then more stops just below support at
11,950. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance
at 12,200 and then at the October high of 12,230. Shorter-term
moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 140 16/32 and
then at 140 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 141 16/32 and
then at the overnight high of 141 25/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of
129.20.5 and then at 130.00.0. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 129.00.0 and
then at last week’s low of 128.20.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today.
Dollar index bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage but need to show more power soon. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 79.31 and then at 79.50.
Shorter-term support is seen at 78.75 and then at 78.52.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today and hit a fresh
two-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term
technical advantage. In January crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $101.92 and
then at $102.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support
at the overnight low of $101.17 and then at $99.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly firmer in overnight trading, on short
covering. While the grains are still in near-term bearish
technical postures, my bias is that there is not strong downside
pressure left in the grains. Grain markets are still following
the outside markets. The key outside markets are bullish for
grains early today—-weaker U.S. dollar index and firmer crude oil
and stock index prices.
 

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