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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--December 6

Dec 06, 2011

Tuesday, December 6--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The market place got a bit of a jolt late Monday when the
Standard & Poors credit rating agency warned that it could
downgrade most of the European Union countries’ credit ratings.
It not only spooked the market place a bit but also angered many
that such a move would come right during a week when it appears
the EU is finally getting more serious about dealing with their
debt crisis. The credit ratings agencies are a joke and have lost
much credibility in the market place. The agencies completely
missed the biggest debt debacle in decades by not warning on the
2008 worldwide debt crisis. It appears the agencies are now
trying to play catch-up, regarding restoring their credibility.
As one savvy options trader said: The best gauge of investor
confidence in any asset in the market place is to look at its
options premium.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at Monday’s high of 1,266.00 and then at the
November high of 1,275.00. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Downside support for active traders today is
located at the overnight low of 1,245.30 and then at 1,225.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and
18-day) are still neutral early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last
week’s high of 2,344.75 and then at 2,375.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,312.75 and then at
2,284.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Monday’s low of 12,025 and then more stops just below
support at 11,950. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Monday’s high of 12,175 and then at the October
high of 12,230. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early
today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day
moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Bulls are fading. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral early today. Shorter-term support lies at 141 even and
then at Monday’s low of 140 20/32. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 141 31/32 and then at the overnight high of 142
16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day)
are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day and 18-day. The 9-day is even with the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 129.22.5
and then at 130.01.5. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 129.00.0 and then
at last week’s low of 128.20.0. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is trading near steady in early
trading today. Dollar index bulls still have the overall near-
term technical advantage but need to show more power soon. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The
dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 79.41 and then at 79.75. Shorter-term support
is seen at 79.00 and then at Monday’s low of 78.72. Wyckoff's
Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading slightly higher early today. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In January crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at Monday’s
high of $102.24 and then at the November high of $103.37. Look
for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $100.38 and then at $100.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were mostly weaker in overnight trading. The “risk off”
mentality in the market place today is pressured grains. Grain
markets are still following the outside markets. The key outside
markets are neutral for grains early today—-steady U.S. dollar
index steady to firmer crude oil and stock index prices.
 

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