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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 19

Feb 19, 2013

Tuesday, February 19--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

With China back in play after a week-long holiday the market
place is looking to the world’s second-largest economy for
raw commodity demand clues. There were reports overnight
that China’s centrally planned economy is seeing some
restrictions put on home financing due to higher property
prices, which leads to ideas China could tap the brakes on
its economic growth rate. In European news overnight, the
German ZEW economic expectations index hit a three-year high
in its latest February report. That’s another clue that the
European Union economy has turned the corner toward better
conditions ahead. Italian and Spanish bond yields crept
lower Tuesday following a well-received Spanish debt
offering.  European traders are anxiously awaiting Italian
elections beginning Sunday. The OECD reported Tuesday that
overall world economic growth in developed countries
contracted by 0.2% in the fourth quarter of 2012—the first
collective declined in three years. The market place is
awaiting Wednesday afternoon’s release of the latest minutes
of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting. These minutes in
the past few months have been market-movers. U.S. economic
data due for release Tuesday in light and includes the NAHB
housing market index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering
near a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at last week’s
high of 1,521.80 and then at 1,535.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at the overnight low of 1,515.30
and then at 1,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still
bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term technical resistance is located at last week’s
high of 2,781.75 and then at 2,790.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 2,758.25 and then at
2,750.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer early today and hovering near
a five-year high. Bulls still have the solid overall near-
term technical advantage. Sell stops likely reside just
below technical support at 13,900 and then at Friday’s low
of 13,880. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at Friday’s high of 13,978 and then at last
week’s high of 14,004. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering in a bear market. Prices are still not far above
the recent contract low. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 143 25/32 and then at last week’s high of
143 30/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
143 2/32 and then at Friday’s low of 142 29/32. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on mild short covering. Bears still have the overall near-
term technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4-
9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 131.21.0 and then at last week’s high of
131.25.0. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.11.0 and then at Friday’s low of 131.08.5. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher early today and
hovering near a six-week high. The greenback bulls are
showing power recently to suggest a market bottom is in
place. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral
early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 80.83 and then at the
January high of 80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at the
overnight low of 80.58 and then at 80.30. Wyckoff's Intra
Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today on mild
profit taking, and are seeing limited buying interest from a
firmer U.S. dollar. However, the bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. In April Nymex crude,
look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $96.49 and then at $97.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at the overnight low of
$95.74 and then at the February low of $95.50. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight on short covering. Corn and
wheat were near steady and soybeans were solidly higher on
some better demand ideas. Bulls are hoping this will be the
week that grain futures prices pull out of their “February
Break” funk.
 

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