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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 27

Feb 27, 2013

Wednesday, February 27--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Traders and investors are still digesting Tuesday’s
testimony on the U.S. economy to the Senate by Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. As expected, the central bank
chief said U.S. monetary policy will remain very
accommodative for the foreseeable future. He also said there
is no U.S. equity bubble. Bernanke’s remarks boosted the
U.S. stock market as well as gold and silver markets
Tuesday. Bernanke speaks to a U.S. House of Representatives
committee Wednesday. The European Union and its sovereign
debt problems are still simmering on the front burner of the
market place. The Italian elections failed to show a clear
winner as voters ostensibly rebuked present government
austerity measures. Some modestly upbeat EU data on consumer
and business confidence was released Wednesday as the
Economic Sentiment Indicator rose to 91.1 in February versus
89.5 in January, and reaching the highest level since last
May. That news helped to modestly lift the European stock
markets and the Euro currency Wednesday. There is an Italian
government debt auction Wednesday that will be very closely
scrutinized by the market place to gauge European investor
risk appetite. The EU debt crisis flaring up again has been
a supportive element for safe-haven assets such as gold,
U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar. The U.S. government’s
likely inability to agree on a taxing and spending plan by
the March 1 sequestration deadline is added to a nervous and
uncertain atmosphere in the world market place this week.
That’s also a mildly supportive factor for the safe-haven
investment assets this week. U.S. economic data due for
release Wednesday includes the weekly includes the weekly
MBA mortgage applications survey, the advance report on
durable goods, the pending home sales index, and the weekly
DOE energy stocks report.—Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. The bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage but
have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages (4-,
9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,500.00 and then at
1,515.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at this
week’s low of 1,482.00 and then at 1,475.00. Sell stops are
likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day
Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading.
Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage
but have faded recently. The shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at Tuesday’s high of 2,718.25 and then
at 2,725.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
Tuesday’s low of 2,689.00 and then at 2,675.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer today. The bulls still have
the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded
this week. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Tuesday’s low of 13,810 and then at this week’s
low of 13,770. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,900 and then at 13,950. Shorter-term moving
averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving
average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and
hovering near a five-week high on safe-haven demand. Bulls
have upside momentum amid a resurfacing of the EU debt
crisis and the U.S. sequestration deadline nearing. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is
above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at Tuesday’s high of 144 26/32 and then
at 144 30/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 143 31/32 and then at 143 16/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and
hovering near a two-month high, on safe-haven buying. Bulls
have upside momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Tuesday’s high of 131.26.0 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.14.5 and
then at 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today on profit
taking after hitting a six-month high Tuesday. The greenback
bulls have upside momentum as the dollar is this week seeing
fresh safe-haven demand. Slow stochastics for the dollar
index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 82.00 and then at
Tuesday’s high of 82.24. Shorter-term support is seen at
81.81 and then at 81.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices Tuesday
hit a two-month low. The stronger U.S. dollar and risk
aversion have been pressuring crude recently. In April Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
the overnight high of $93.08 and then at $93.50. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at this week’s low
of $91.92 and then at $91.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher overnight. Corn was near steady,
while soybeans and wheat were firmer. There have been
better moisture patterns in the central U.S. that are
working to alleviate the severe soil shortages in the
region and that’s bearish for the grain markets. However,
there has also been some fresh export demand for U.S.
grains recently.
 

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