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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Feb. 28

Feb 28, 2013

Thursday, February 28--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Today is the last trading day of the month, which makes it
an extra important day from a technical perspective. The
U.S. government’s likely inability to agree on a taxing and
spending plan by the March 1 sequestration deadline is being
mostly ignored in the world market place late this week, as
the U.S. stock market rallied sharply Wednesday amid a
“risk-on” trader and investor mentality. U.S. stock index
futures were trading modestly higher Thursday morning on
some follow-through buying strength. President Obama will
meet with congressional leaders Friday on the budget
matters. Traders and investors are becoming somewhat numb to
the ongoing squabbling in Washington, D.C. The European
Union and its sovereign debt problems have surfaced again
this week. The Italian elections failed to show a clear
winner as voters ostensibly rebuked present government
austerity measures. The head of the Organization for
Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said Thursday
the Italian election gridlock will not significantly impact
the EU debt crisis and efforts to stabilize it. There were
Italian government debt auctions Tuesday and Wednesday that
were deemed successful, even though yields were a bit
higher. On Thursday, Spanish and Italian bond yields fell
slightly, in another positive sign the EU debt crisis is now
stable. The latest episode in the EU debt crisis appears to
be calming down just a bit as the week progresses. European
Central Bank chief Mario Draghi said Thursday he will
continue to “preserve the integrity” of the Euro currency.
European stock markets were mostly higher Thursday on better
corporate earnings reports coming out of Europe. U.S.
economic data due for release Thursday includes the weekly
jobless claims report, the fourth-quarter GDP estimate, the
ISM Chicago business survey, and the Kansas City Fed
manufacturing index.—Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer early today. The bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage and regained
some upside momentum Wednesday. Trading has turned volatile
at higher price levels, which is not bullish. The shorter-
term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish
early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and
18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-
term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early
today. Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at
this week’s high of 1,524.30 and then at the February high
of 1,530.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at 1,500.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,490.20. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer in early trading.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. The
shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
Wednesday’s high of 2,757.25 and then at this week’s high of
2,764.50. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at the overnight
low of 2,739.50 and then at 2,725.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are firmer today. The bulls have the
overall near-term technical advantage and regained upside
momentum Wednesday. However, the higher volatility at higher
price levels is a bearish clue of a topping process. Sell
stops likely reside just below technical support at 14,000
and then at 13,950. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at Wednesday’s five-year high of 14,086
and then at 14,100. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral
early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day
and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today and
hovering not far below this week’s five-week high. Bulls
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 144 16/32 and then at this week’s
high of 144 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 143 21/32 and then at 143 15/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are firmer early today and
hovering near a two-month high. Bulls have the near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at this
week’s high of 131.27.0 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.13.5 and
then at 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today. The
greenback bulls have the near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
82.000 and then at this week’s high of 82.240. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 81.745 and then at
81.500. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today. Prices this
week hit a two-month low. The recent pause on the daily
chart is not bullish. In April Nymex crude, look for buy
stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high
of $93.18 and then at $93.50. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at this week’s low of $91.92 and then at
$91.50. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were mostly higher overnight, on short covering.
There have been better moisture patterns in the central
U.S. that are working to alleviate the severe soil
shortages in the region and that’s bearish for the grain
markets. However, there has also been some fresh export
demand for U.S. grains recently. I have turned more bearish
the grains just recently, based upon recent bearish USDA
projections for this year’s crops, the better moisture
situation in the U.S. heartland, and the overall technical
posture of the raw commodity sector that remains bearish.

 

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