Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 17
Feb 17, 2012
Friday, February 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log
* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
It’s a “risk on” trading day in the market place early
Friday, as most commodity markets and the U.S. stock
indexes are higher. Fresh hopes that Greece will be able to
secure its next bailout funds are boosting risk appetite
today. This Greek debt deal was supposed to be secured two
weeks ago and it just drags on, just like the entire EU
sovereign debt crisis drags on.--Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to a fresh nine-month high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at 1,375.00 and then at
1,385.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
Downside support for active traders today is located at
1,350.00 and then at this week’s low of 1,334.00. Sell stops
are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-
day Market Rating: 5.5
Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at this week’s high of 2,600.50 and
then at 2,620.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,575.00 and then at 2,550.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5
Dow futures: Prices hit a fresh four-year high overnight.
Sell stops likely reside just below technical support at
12,890 and then more stops just below support at 12,850. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
12,950 and then at 13,000. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day
moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.5
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies at 141 16/32
and then at 141 even. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the
overnight high of 142 16/32 and then at 143 even. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5
March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 131.02.5 and then at 131.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 130.22.0 and
then at the February low of 130.18.0. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 4.5
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX
The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.59 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 79.31 and then at
79.00. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are trading higher early today and hit a
fresh five-week high overnight. Bulls have upside near-term
technical momentum. In March crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $103.00 and then at the
January high of $103.90. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $102.00 and then at $101.00. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Markets were higher in overnight trading. The key “outside
markets” are bullish for the grains today, as the U.S.
dollar index is weaker while crude oil and the U.S. stock
indexes are firmer. Soybean bulls have good upside
technical momentum and soybeans are presently leading price
action in the entire grains complex.
