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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 21

Feb 21, 2012

Tuesday, February 21--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Finally, early today Greece was be able to secure its next
bailout funds and that has somewhat boosted risk appetite
in the market place today. This Greek debt deal was
supposed to be secured weeks ago. Already, the European
markets are shaking off the Greece news and have new
worries about other factors that have the European Union in
its debt mess. It’s like the movie, “Groundhog Day,” in
which the EU is just stuck in its debt mess and cannot get
out.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices poked to a fresh 9.5-month high
overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the May 2011 high of
1,372.70 and then at 1,385.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Downside support for active traders
today is located at 1,350.00 and then at last week’s low of
1,334.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-
9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is
above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical
resistance is located at last week’s high of 2,600.50 and
then at 2,620.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at
2,572.00 and then at 2,550.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

Dow futures: Prices hit another fresh four-year high
overnight. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at Friday’s low of 12,900 and then more stops just
below support at 12,850. Buy stops likely reside just above
technical resistance at 13,000 and then at 13,050. Shorter-
term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average
is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term support lies at the
overnight low of 141 14/32 and then at 141 even. Sell stops
likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term
technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 142 1/32
and then at 142 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices hit a fresh four-week low
overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 130.27.0 and then at 131.00.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 130.15.0 and then at
130.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker early today. Bulls
still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but
need to show fresh power soon to keep it. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.50 and
then at 79.86. Shorter-term support is seen at last week’s
low of 78.91 and then at the February low of 78.43.
Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading higher early today and hit a
fresh nine-month high of $105.80 overnight. Bulls have good
upside near-term technical momentum. In April crude, look
for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the
overnight high of $105.80 and then at $106.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $104.00 and then at
$103.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed in overnight trading. Corn and wheat
were lower and soybeans were slightly higher. The key
“outside markets” are bullish for the grains today, as the
U.S. dollar index is weaker while crude oil and the U.S.
stock indexes are firmer. Soybean bulls still have good
upside technical momentum and soybeans are presently
leading price action in the entire grains complex.
 

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