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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 7

Feb 07, 2012

Tuesday, February 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Comex gold futures prices have backed down from last week’s
two-month high. Profit taking has been featured in gold,
following recent strong gains. A rebound in the U.S. dollar
index has helped to pressure gold, too. Gold, as well as
other raw commodity markets, will continue to track the
dollar index for daily price direction. If the dollar index
does show significant price weakness it would be a strongly
bullish underlying factor for the commodity markets. A
strengthening greenback would just be a modestly bearish
factor for commodities.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit a fresh 6.5-month high
overnight. Bulls still have the strong near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the overnight high of 1,342.70 and
then at the July 2011 high of 1,354.50. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at 1,320.00 and then at 1,310.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices hit a fresh 11-year high
overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at the overnight high of 2,532.75 and then at
2,550.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels.
On the downside, short-term support is seen at 2,500.00 and
then at 2,490.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Bulls are still technically strong. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at 12,700 and
then more stops just below support at 12,650. Buy stops
likely reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s
high of 12,792 and then at the May 2011 high of 12,827.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term support lies at 143 even and then
at the overnight low of 142 29/32. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance
lies at Monday’s high of 143 17/32 and then at 144 even. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to
bearish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
Monday’s high of 131.26.0 and then at 132.00.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at last week’s low of 131.09.5 and
then at 131.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading
today, on a corrective bounce from recent selling pressure.
Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early
today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical
resistance at last week’s high of 79.66 and then at 80.00.
Shorter-term support is seen at 79.00 and then at last
week’s low of 78.74. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading lower again early today. Prices
are in a gentle four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart.
Bulls are fading. In March crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $97.00 and then at $97.50.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at last
week’s low of $95.44 and then at $95.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker in overnight trading, amid key “outside
markets” being in a bearish posture for grains this
morning, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer, while crude
oil and the U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Grain traders
are awaiting Thursday morning’s USDA world supply and
demand report.
 

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