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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--February 9

Feb 09, 2012

Thursday, February 9--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* JIM'S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The grain markets may steal the commodity spotlight today,
as the U.S. Agriculture Department releases its latest
worldwide supply and demand data. Traders will not only be
scrutinizing U.S. stockpiles and usage, but also the corn
and soybean production numbers coming out of South America,
following a drought there. Grain futures markets could see
more active trading today.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices hit another fresh 6.5-month high
overnight. Bulls have the strong near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving
average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical
resistance comes in at the July 2011 high of 1,354.50 and
then at 1,365.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Downside support for active traders today is located
at this week’s low of 1,330.30 and then at 1,320.00. Sell
stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices poked to another fresh 11-year
high overnight. Bulls have the solid near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the
18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is
located at 2,550.00 and then at 2,565.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term
support is seen at Wednesday’s low of 2,521.00 and then at
2,500.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices Wednesday hit a fresh nearly four-year
high. Bulls are still technically strong. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at 12,800 and then more
stops just below support at Wednesday’s low of 12,780. Buy
stops likely reside just above technical resistance at
Wednesday’s high of 12,850 and then at 12,900. Shorter-term
moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is
above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: The bulls are fading. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today.
Shorter-term support lies at the overnight low of 141 30/32
and then at this week’s low of 141 23/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical
resistance lies at the overnight high of 142 13/32 and then
at 143 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: The bulls are fading a bit. Shorter-
term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early
today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-
day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131.06.5 and then at 131.16.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at this week’s low of 130.28.0 and then at
130.16.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index hit another fresh nine-week low
overnight. Bears have downside near-term momentum. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
79.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of 79.37. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 78.48 and then at
78.25. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are trading firmer early today. Prices are
still in a gentle four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar
chart, but bulls have regained upside technical momentum
this week. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $100.00 and then at $101.00. Look for
sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low
of $98.66 and then at $98.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Markets were mostly weaker in overnight trading on position
evening ahead of this morning’s USDA world supply and
demand report. Look for more active trading in the grains
after the monthly USDA data.
 

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