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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 11

Jan 11, 2013

Friday, January 11--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, China’s consumer price inflation was
reported at up 2.5% in December, on an annualized basis—up
significantly from the 2.0% reading in November. That news
is just a bit bearish for the commodity markets, as it
suggests China’s central bank will be less accommodative in
its monetary policy. However, the data also suggests China’s
economy is heating up, which also means greater demand for
raw commodities coming from the world’s second-largest
economy. There was another well-received Italian government
bond auction Friday. Shorter-term Italian bond yields
dropped to a three-year low. That news supported the Euro
and European stock markets. In Japan, the stock market hit a
22-month high on more Japanese government stimulus efforts
that drove the beleaguered yen still lower against other
major currencies. Important for many markets Thursday, the
Euro currency rallied sharply and the U.S. dollar index got
hammered lower following the European Central Bank meeting
in which the ECB left interest rates unchanged. ECB chief
Draghi in his press conference gave upbeat comments about
the outlook for the European Union in the coming months. The
moves by the Euro and the dollar index Thursday are likely
near-term “game-changers” for the currency markets. Now, in
the coming weeks it’s more likely that the Euro currency
will drift sideways to higher, while the dollar index will
trade sideways, or sideways to lower. Such a scenario is
bullish for the raw commodity sector and European stock
markets, and also arguably bullish for the U.S. stock
market. U.S. economic data due for release Friday includes
import and export price indexes, the international trade
report, and the monthly Treasury budget statement.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are near steady in early trading
today, and did hit a fresh five-year high overnight. Bulls
have upside near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term
moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Today, shorter-term technical resistance comes in at the
overnight high of 1,471.00 and then at 1,480.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,460.00 and then at
1,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly firmer early today
and hovering near a three-month high. Bulls still have some
upside near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at the January high of
2,747.00 and then at 2,760.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,725.00 and then at Thursday’s low of 2,713.75.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are near steady early today and hovering
near a three-month high. Bulls have upside near-term
technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at 13,370 and then at Thursday’s low of
13,325. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at the January high of 13,450 and then at 13,500.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
to bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering. Bears still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight high of 145
7/32 and then at this week’s high of 145 20/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 144 11/32 and
then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on short covering. Bears have the overall near-term
technical advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average
is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 131.27.0 and then at Thursday’s high of 132.00.0.
Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-
term technical support lies at the overnight low of
131.16.0 and then at 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating:
5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady following its
shellacking Thursday. Greenback bears now have downside
near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the
dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds
shorter-term technical resistance at 80.00 and then at
80.22. Shorter-term support is seen at Thursday’s low of
79.74 and then at 79.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
4.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on a corrective,
profit-taking pullback after prices on Thursday hit a four-
month high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. In February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to
reside just above resistance at $94.00 and then at
Thursday’s high of $94.70. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $92.50 and then at this week’s low of
$92.42. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were mixed overnight. Traders are awaiting this
morning’s monthly USDA supply and demand, quarterly grain
stocks and annual grain summary reports, due out in late
morning. Most market watchers reckon the USDA data will be
generally bearish. This particular batch of USDA data will
important fundamental impetus for grain price direction in
coming weeks—possibly up to the late-March USDA planting
intentions data. The near-term technical postures of the
grain markets remain bearish at present.
 

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