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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 15

Jan 15, 2013

Tuesday, January 15--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

European and U.S. stock markets were pressured a bit
overnight on a warning from the U.S. Treasury Secretary
Geithner that the U.S. cannot skirt its debt ceiling, while
the Fitch credit rating agency said it could downgrade the
U.S.’s credit rating if the U.S. delays raising its debt
ceiling. U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke late Monday
said the U.S. economic recovery is still fragile and
strongly hinted that the Fed’s monthly bond-buying program
will not end any time soon. That was a bullish development
for the raw commodity markets. European Union economic data
released Tuesday was a mixed bag. Germany’s GDP contracted
by 0.5% in the fourth quarter of last year. However, Euro
zone exports showed a record large trade surplus in
November. There were also strong government bond sales in
Italy and Spain, which is a clue that European investor
sentiment toward the EU continues on the upswing. The Euro
currency has been pushed to a multi-month high this week on
the upbeat sentiment regarding the EU. The market place is
awaiting Friday’s report from China on its fourth-quarter
gross domestic product growth rate. U.S. economic data due
for release Tuesday includes the weekly Goldman Sachs and
Johnson Redbook retail sales reports, the producer price
index, retail sales, the Empire State manufacturing survey,
and manufacturing and trade inventories.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early trading today,
on some profit taking after hitting a five-year high on
Monday. Bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,465.30 and then at Monday’s high of 1,471.30. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at 1,450.00 and then at
1,446.20. Sell stops are likely located just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today after
hitting a three-month high on Monday. Bulls still have the
overall near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today.
The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The
9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at the overnight high
of 2,732.25 and then at Monday’s high of 2,750.25. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,713.75 and then at 2,700.00.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on some profit
taking from recent gains as prices hover near a three-month
high. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below technical
support at 13,380 and then at 13,325. Buy stops likely
reside just above technical resistance at Monday’s high of
13,455 and then at 13,500. Shorter-term moving averages are
bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher early today on more
short covering and some bargain hunting. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day
moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 146 5/32 and then at 146 10/32. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 146 even and then at the overnight
low of 145 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on short
covering and bargain hunting. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
132.12.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at
132.08.0 and then at the overnight low of 132.01.0. Sell
stops likely reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer early today on short
covering in a bear market. Greenback bears still have some
downside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics for
the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index
finds shorter-term technical resistance at 79.93 and then at
80.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 79.50 and then at
Monday’s low of 79.40. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today, on some
mild profit taking. Bulls still some upside momentum and
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In February
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at last week’s high of $94.70 and then at $95.00.
Look for sell stops just below technical support at $93.00
and then at last week’s low of $92.42. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were firmer overnight on more short covering and
bargain hunting. Grain futures markets have shown decent
upside price action just recently to give the bulls some
hope. There are now some early technical clues the grain
markets have put in near-term lows. However, the bulls have
more work to do and need to prove themselves this week.
This week’s price action will be extra important in the
grain markets. Closes on Friday at or near the weekly highs
would be significantly bullish.
 

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