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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 16

Jan 16, 2013

Wednesday, January 16--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

In overnight news, U.S., European and Asian stocks were
weaker and the Euro currency was firmer. U.S. corporate
earnings reports are presently in the world spotlight. Also,
European auto manufacturers said Wednesday sales of their
cars in the European Union were at a 17-year low, dropping
by 8% in 2012. The World Bank said late Tuesday that the
U.S. tax and spending debacle is constraining worldwide
economic growth. The Euro was supported by a European
Central Bank official saying the Euro’s exchange rate was
not too high. The market place is awaiting Friday’s report
from China on its fourth-quarter gross domestic product
growth rate. There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data
due for release Wednesday, including the weekly MBA mortgage
applications survey, the consumer price index, real
earnings, Treasury international capital data, industrial
production and capacity utilization, the Federal Reserve’s
beige book, the NAHB housing index and the weekly DOE energy
stocks report.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early trading today,
on some more profit taking after hitting a five-year high on
Monday. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at the overnight high of
1,467.20 and then at Monday’s high of 1,471.30. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Downside support for
active traders today is located at this week’s low of
1,457.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops are likely located
just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating:
4.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today on some
chart consolidation after hitting a three-month high on
Monday. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical
advantage. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-
day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above
the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance
is located at the overnight high of 2,721.50 and then at
Tuesday’s high of 2,732.25. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at this week’s low of 2,705.25 and then at 2,698.50.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on some profit
taking and consolidation from recent gains as prices hover
near a three-month high. Bulls still have some upside near-
term technical momentum. Sell stops likely reside just below
technical support at Tuesday’s low of 13,385 and then at
13,350. Buy stops likely reside just above technical
resistance at 13,455 and then at Tuesday’s high of 13,476.
Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the
4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-
day moving average is above the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are higher again early today on
more short covering and some bargain hunting. Bulls are
gaining some fresh upside near-term technical momentum.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 17/32 and
then at 147 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 146 even and
then at the overnight low of 145 25/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 6.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are higher early today on short
covering and bargain hunting. Bulls are gaining upside
near-term technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages
(4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day
moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the
overnight high of 132.14.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at 132.08.0 and then at the
overnight low of 132.05.5. Sell stops likely reside just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly firmer early today
on short covering in a bear market. Greenback bears still
have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
this week’s high of 79.94 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at the overnight low of 79.66 and then at
this week’s low of 79.40. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly lower early today, on some
mild profit taking. Bulls still some upside momentum and
have the overall near-term technical advantage. In February
Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just above
resistance at the overnight high of $93.62 and then at
$94.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at
$93.00 and then at last week’s low of $92.42. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were firmer again overnight on more short covering
and bargain hunting. Grain futures markets have shown good
upside price action recently to give the bulls early
technical clues the grain markets have put in near-term
lows. However, the bulls have more work to do to suggest
near-term price uptrends can be sustained. This week’s
price action will be extra important in the grain markets.
Closes on Friday at or near the weekly highs would be
significantly bullish.
 

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