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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 17

Jan 17, 2013

Thursday, January 17--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

Markets were generally quiet in overnight trading. There was
fresh, weak data coming out of the European Union, as
construction output declined by 0.4% in November, for an
annual drop of 4.7%. The Euro currency was supported by
successful bond auctions by Spain and Ireland on Thursday.
In the U.S. focus is presently on corporate earnings reports
being released. On the back burner is the still-unresolved
major issue of a permanent agreement by U.S. lawmakers on
government taxing and spending measures. It’s likely this
situation will heat up in the coming weeks, and such would
significantly impact the market place. U.S. economic data
due for release Thursday includes the weekly jobless claims
report, new residential construction, the Philadelphia Fed
business outlook survey, and foreign central bank holdings
of U.S. Treasuries.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are firmer in early trading today.
Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage as
prices hover near a five-year high. The shorter-term moving
averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today,
shorter-term technical resistance comes in at this week’s
high of 1,471.30 and then at 1,480.00. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Downside support for active
traders today is located at this week’s low of 1,457.00 and
then at 1,450.00. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are firmer early and are
hovering near a three-month high. Bulls have the overall
near-term technical advantage. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI,
slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
technical resistance is located at this week’s high of
2,750.25 and then at 2,778.85. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at the overnight low of 2,716.50 and then at this
week’s low of 2,705.25. Sell stops are likely located just
below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Dow futures: Prices are slightly higher early today. Prices
are hovering near a three-month high and bulls have some
upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of
13,410 and then at 13,385. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 13,460 and
then at this week’s high of 13,476. Shorter-term moving
averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving
average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term
oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are lower early today. Bears
still have the overall near-term technical advantage.
Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral
early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day.
The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at 146 even and then at the overnight
high of 146 15/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight
low of 145 14/32 even and then at this week’s low of 145
5/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are lower early today. Bears
still have the slight overall near-term technical
advantage. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early
today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 132.08.0 and then at
the overnight high of 132.15.5. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support
lies at the overnight low of 132.01.0 and then at this
week’s low of 131.27.5. Sell stops likely reside just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is lower early today. Greenback
bears have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 79.95 and then at 80.00. Shorter-term
support is seen at 79.50 and then at this week’s low of
79.40. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today and hit a fresh
three-month high overnight. Bulls have upside momentum as a
five-week-old uptrend is in place on the daily bar chart. In
February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at $95.00 and then at $96.00. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $94.00 and then at
$93.00. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Markets were weaker overnight on a corrective, profit-
taking pullback from recent impressive gains. Grain futures
markets have shown upside price action recently to give the
bulls early technical clues the grain markets have put in
near-term lows. However, the bulls have more work to do to
suggest near-term price uptrends can be sustained. Traders
will closely scrutinize this morning’s weekly USDA export
sales report and continue to keep an eye on the dry weather
pattern developing in Argentina.
 

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