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RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 3

Jan 03, 2013

Thursday, January 3--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

With the U.S. fiscal cliff matter now at least temporarily
out of the market place spotlight, focus turns to other
issues. There is a heavy slate of U.S. economic data due for
release Thursday, just ahead of what is arguably the most
important U.S. economic report of the month on Friday
morning—the employment situation report. Thursday’s batch of
economic data could move the markets. However, Friday’s jobs
report is likely to have the biggest impact on the markets.
Non-farm payrolls are expected to have risen by 150,000 in
December, with the unemployment rate forecast at 7.7%, which
is unchanged from last month. In Europe overnight there was
fresh data showing the Euro zone continues to see a very
fragile financial sector. European Union bank loans to the
private sector fell by 0.8% in November, on an annualized
basis. Lending to businesses also declined. European stocks
and the Euro currency were weaker Thursday. In Asia news,
China reported its non-manufacturing PMI rose for the third
straight month, to 56.1 in December. Recent economic data
coming from China has been upbeat, which is an underlying
bullish factor for most markets, including the raw
commodities. U.S. economic data due for release Thursday
includes the weekly MBA mortgage applications survey, the
Challenger job cuts report, the ADP national employment
report, weekly jobless claims, the ISM New York business
report, ICSC chain store sales data, domestic auto industry
sales, and the FOMC minutes.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are weaker in early trading today,
on a corrective pullback after hitting a 2.5-month high on
Wednesday. Bulls still have upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-
day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is
above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day
moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at Wednesday’s high of
1,458.00 and then at the September high of 1,467.50. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,445.80 and
then at Wednesday’s low of 1,439.30. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market
Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are weaker early today, on mild
profit taking from the recent strong gains. Bulls still have
upside near-term technical momentum. The shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-
day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day
average is even with the 18-day. Short-term oscillators
(RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-
term technical resistance is located at Wednesday’s high of
2,742.75 and then at 2,750.00. Buy stops likely reside just
above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is
seen at 2,725.00 and then at 2,700.00. Sell stops are likely
located just below those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are weaker early today on a corrective
pullback from recent strong gains. Bulls still have some
upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops likely
reside just below technical support at Wednesday’s low of
13,250 and then at 13,200. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 13,335 and
then at 13,400. Shorter-term moving averages are still
bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are bullish early today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day
Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are firmer early today on short
covering following Wednesday’s sharp losses. Bears still
some near-term downside technical momentum. Shorter-term
moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The
4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below
the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term
resistance lies at the overnight high of 146 2/32 and then
at Wednesday’s high of 146 10/32. Buy stops likely reside
just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies
at the overnight low of 145 22/32 and then at Wednesday’s
low of 145 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on tepid short covering. Bears still have some downside
momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are
neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the
9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average.
Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight
high of 132.08.0 and then at 132.16.0. Buy stops likely
reside just above those levels. Shorter-term technical
support lies at the overnight low of 132.03.0 and then at
132.00.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is higher in early U.S. trading
and hit a fresh three-week high. Bulls are gaining some
fresh upside near-term technical momentum. Slow stochastics
for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar
index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the
overnight high of 80.355 and then at 80.50. Shorter-term
support is seen at 80.00 and then at the overnight low of
79.92. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on some mild profit
taking after hitting a 2.5-month high on Wednesday. Bulls
still have some upside technical momentum. In February Nymex
crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at
$93.00 and then at Wednesday’s high of $93.87. Look for sell
stops just below technical support at $92.00 and then at
Wednesday’s low of $91.56. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market
Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Markets were lower overnight. The key “outside markets” are
bearish for grains early Thursday—higher U.S. dollar index
and weaker crude oil prices. The near-term technical
postures of the grain markets are fully bearish at present.
Would-be bulls need to look for the very early technical
clues that the near-term price downtrends in the grains
have ended. Nothing of that nature has occurred yet. I will
keep you apprised. I do believe that wheat will have to
lead the grains on any upside price recoveries.
 

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