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Pro Farmer Tech Talk

RSS By: Jim Wyckoff, Pro Farmer

Pro Farmer technical analyst Jim Wyckoff's daily thoughts.

Jim's Morning Markets Report--Jan. 7

Jan 07, 2013

Monday, January 7--Jim Wyckoff's Morning Web Log

* LATEST MARKET DEVELOPMENTS *

It’s a relatively quiet start to the new trading week and
the U.S. economic docket is light Monday. The shine of last
week’s temporary U.S. fiscal cliff agreement by U.S.
lawmakers has quickly faded. The market place is now looking
forward with trepidation to the upcoming negotiations
between the U.S. Congress and the Obama administration on
budget and spending matters. Such is likely to limit trader
and investor participation in many markets in the coming
weeks. European stocks were weaker overnight in subdued
dealings as traders there await Thursday’s monthly European
Central Bank meeting. In Asia, the Australian stock market
hit a 19-month high. Asian traders are awaiting a fresh
batch of Chinese economic data due out next weekend. U.S.
economic data due for release Monday includes the employment
trends index.--Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

S&P 500 futures: Prices are slightly lower in early trading
today, on some chart consolidation after hitting a 2.5-month
high late last week. Bulls still have some upside near-term
technical momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above
the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term
technical resistance comes in at last week’s high of
1,462.50 and then at the September high of 1,467.50. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Downside
support for active traders today is located at 1,450.00 and
then at 1,439.30. Sell stops are likely located just below
those levels. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Nasdaq index futures: Prices are slightly higher early
today. Bulls still have some upside near-term technical
momentum. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day)
are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day.
Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish
early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at
2,725.00 and then at Friday’s high of 2,736.00. Buy stops
likely reside just above those levels. On the downside,
short-term support is seen at 2,700.00 and then at 2,686.25.
Sell stops are likely located just below those levels.
Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Dow futures: Prices are slightly lower early today on some
chart consolidation from recent strong gains. Bulls still
have some upside near-term technical momentum. Sell stops
likely reside just below technical support at Friday’s low
of 13,307 and then at 13,250. Buy stops likely reside just
above technical resistance at Friday’s 2.5-month high of
13,370 and then at 13,400. Shorter-term moving averages are
neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above
the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the
18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow
stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

March U.S. T-Bonds: Prices are slightly higher early today
on tepid short covering in a bear market. Prices Friday hit
a 3.5-month low. Bears still have near-term downside
technical momentum. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-
day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving
average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral
early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 145 even and
then at 145 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those
levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at 144 13/32 and
then at 144 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

March U.S. T-Notes: Prices are slightly higher early today
on short covering after hitting a 2.5-month low on Friday.
Bears still have downside momentum. Shorter-term moving
averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day
moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the
18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics)
are bullish early today. Shorter-term resistance lies at
the overnight high of 131.24.5 and then at 132.00.0. Buy
stops likely reside just above those levels. Shorter-term
technical support lies at the overnight low of 131.16.5 and
then at 131.08.0. Sell stops likely reside just below those
levels. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

U.S. DOLLAR INDEX

The March U.S. dollar index is firmer in early U.S. trading.
Bulls have gained good upside near-term technical momentum
recently, to suggest a market bottom is in place and that
prices can trade at least sideways in the coming weeks. Slow
stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today.
The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at
the overnight high of 80.80 and then at Friday’s high of
80.99. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of
80.59 and then at 80.50. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating:
5.5

NYMEX CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today on profit taking
from recent gains. Prices last week hit a 2.5-month high.
The stronger U.S. dollar is a negative for crude. In
February Nymex crude, look for buy stops to reside just
above resistance at the overnight high of $93.25 and then at
last week’s high of $93.87. Look for sell stops just below
technical support at $92.00 and then at $91.52. Wyckoff's
Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

GRAINS

Markets were higher overnight on short covering following
recent selling pressure. Traders are awaiting Friday’s
monthly USDA supply and demand report. This particular USDA
report will be more important than most monthly reports.
The near-term technical postures of the grain markets
remains bearish at present.
 

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